Predicting Crude using Intermarket Analysis

Quote from kowboy:

His post is gone, but it was a good question so I will leave my answer up.
 
Quote from Murray Ruggiero:

The point you are all forgetting is that there is a reason why it works, oil stock lead crude. I have been building intermarket based systems for a decade and many of the ones I built 7-8 years ago have been profitable since I published them.

Whenever you build a trading system you need to understand the premise. Using a ETF based on a basket of energy stocks make perfect sense. The results are very robust 46 of 64 combinations tested optimizing from 5-40 steps of 5 for both sets of parameters where profitable on both the long and short side. We also had 25 of them make more than $40,000.

I know these number are amazing and you don't want to believe but I know several intermediate size CTA trading this type of stuff. I know because I taught them.

I am not trying to be belligerent Mr. Ruggiero but do you trade your systems profitably? What is the success rate (trade profitably) of the traders you train. I am asking because I am genuinely interested in your software but I am also leery of salesmen.
 
Quote from javs5150:

I am not trying to be belligerent Mr. Ruggiero but do you trade your systems profitably? What is the success rate (trade profitably) of the traders you train. I am asking because I am genuinely interested in your software but I am also leery of salesmen.

First of all , most of my clients are professional traders, who I am developing trading program for them to manage money with. It is a handful of clients , many of which have been clients since the mid 1990's.

I sometimes do one on one training for traders starting out, but I do it after spending some time talking to the person and only when I think I can help them. Some people you can't help even if you give them a system which never loses another trade. They fail because they are not capitalized correctly or because they can't follow the system. I don't work with indivdual traders to get rich. I do it a few times a year because I enjoy it. That is why I am selective.

You will not see me charging $25,000 for five days training. You have to realize also that I need to hold myself to a higher moral standard because of the fact I have been a contributing editor for Futures Magazine for 12 years.

Getting back to the other issue. I am surprise about the comments to this thread. I am giving away valuable information , just to get people to look at TradersStudio. I am not charging for this. TradersStudio is not a trading system. It is a platform like TradeStation. When I post about systems for sales , these types of comments are fair game, but I am trying to help here. I have been using this type of methodology to build systems for bonds,crude , metals since the mid 1990's.
 
What would Japanese rate hike impact market in the intermarket analysis?

How about building a QQQQ PSQ rotation system for IRA account traders?

Can you post some of your articles that you wrote for trading magzines in your web site?

Thanks!
 
Getting back to the other issue. I am surprise about the comments to this thread. I am giving away valuable information , just to get people to look at TradersStudio. I am not charging for this. TradersStudio is not a trading system. It is a platform like TradeStation. When I post about systems for sales , these types of comments are fair game, but I am trying to help here. I have been using this type of methodology to build systems for bonds,crude , metals since the mid 1990's. [/B][/QUOTE]

I apologize if I offended you, that was not my intent. I have learned much from your threads and am grateful. I am interested in TradersStudio but I am waiting for the release of the realtime version.
 
Quote from Murray Ruggiero:

...First I could publish tomorrow newspaper here and still most people would not trade it . ...
Try me.

nitro
 
Quote from javs5150:

I apologize if I offended you, that was not my intent. I have learned much from your threads and am grateful. I am interested in TradersStudio but I am waiting for the release of the realtime version. [/B]

No problem, I am just trying to help. I hope you join our family of users soon. One thing I will tell you is buying the current version and then upgrading will be cheaper than waiting, by a least a few hundred dollars.
 
Quote from zxcv1fu:

What would Japanese rate hike impact market in the intermarket analysis?

How about building a QQQQ PSQ rotation system for IRA account traders?

Can you post some of your articles that you wrote for trading magazines in your web site?

Thanks!

I can't post the magazine article I wrote because Futures owns the copyright. I sell my book because I pay them a royalty. Check Futures magazine site, I think they have some of them up there.

In terms of the Japanese rate hike. That would increase the value of the Yen, but that does not mean that the dollar index will decrease because of the other currencies involved. It is something that I need to think about to give you a good answer

We could develop that system. I will put it on my list of things to do on ET.
 
I have included the optimization report for 5-40 steps 5 for both parameters as well as the code for the intermarket tool I used to do the analysis of multiple intermarket versus a single trading market in this Zip file.

Another quick point is that you would think the Yen would rally because of the rate hike but , Middle East problems and the fact the Bank of Japan talked down future rate increases has caused the dollar to rally. This is why, intermarket relationships can often decouples,during time of disasters , but if they are reliable often enough you can do well using intermarket analysis.

Decoupling is a very complex issue which I discussed in my orginal intermarket thread. If you have question , please ask here or in the orginal thread.
 

Attachments

I am going to begin to run the data sets which are other indexes and mutual funds. I will then show how well they predict crude. I will also take a closer look at the trades and issues relating to decoupling. I will also address that heating oil,unleaded gas are correlated with crude but are not the same markets.

I also see some interest in the relationship of currencies to crude. I will also address this topic here soon.
 
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