Predict the market 2017

[vanzandt]

, and I will give a lollipop for the best guess at year's end.

Surf and prizes from years gone by.

 

[felixbocharov]

Usually it works this way. Take the most 'realistic' prediction and do the opposite.

 

[Turveyd]

Trumps killing off a lot of things which might improve business $$$'s wise atleast, really bad in just about every other way, but at the expense of people the markets could initially do very well.

So up!

 

[murray t turtle]

The game is simple, you post here your prediction for the SPY or ES where they are going to be 12 months from now, and I will give a lollipop for the best guess at year's end.

My guess for the S&P is -8%.

Reasoning is not required, but I have one, the first year in a new presidential cycle is usually the worst statistically, not to mention the erratic behavior of Trump.

So what is your guess?

%%
Mr Pekalo; A bear market is so much overdue, that just confirms its about probabilities[ which you maybe meant] more than prediction. BUT any bear market would not have much to do with one man, [Pres]out of a pop of 318 million+ If you watch 3- 5 minute charts all the time Mr Trump-Pence could make noise, for 3- 5 minutes.Mr Carl Ichan is quite a brillant business man; but being a tax raiser- thats stupid, but i like him anyway.

IF they're dumb enough to do a Senator Smoot-Haley tariff[TAX],again,LOL look out below 1929?? ??? Good question

 

[Pekelo]

%%
Mr Pekalo;

People, we need less blabbering and more NUMBERS!

So up!

By how much? Is it really that hard to post a number?

 

[recession2016]

i hope trump has more of these press conferences, my shorts are doing great

 

[lovethetrade]

More Volatility.

 

[TraderJim]

The simple response would be up 20% from the day before Trump won the election. If corporate tax rates are cut 20%, then company earnings would climb 20% and you would apply the same S&P market multiple to earnings.

So the S&P 500 closed at 2139 on Nov 8th. If the everyone's earnings climb by 20%, then you end up with 2566, up 20%. If this is correct, everyone makes a bundle and should cash out in 2018.

Market gurus are paid to make noise - they get it wrong too, but this is the math that wall street will follow.

 

[hajimow]

Down 12.4%

 

[Tradesuperstocks]

Likely correction 10-15%....SPY. Probably more if things aren't fixed. 2018 = crash