Prechter, Is this stuff Possible??

Another problem with Prechter is that IMHO he has done more to discredit Elliot Wave than almost all other forces combined. But that is also all good because you don't want too many people discovering the good applications or they lose their edge.
 
I'm not sure what the practical application of Prechter's predictions would be for traders or investors. What would either buy now? Put Leaps dated out to 05, if such a thing exists? Some Prudent Bear fund? In shorter time frames right up to scalping, I can't see much use for him. Seems like you'd blow up your account shorting just trying to survive market noise long before the big collapse would come to pass. Put another way, if you ran a trading desk, where would he fit in right now to make you money?

Geo.
 
Quote from swtrader:

I subscribed to an Elliot wave service summer 2001.

They were predicting a big summer naz rally.

Every other (non EW) indicator said short, so I stayed flat and missed a huge shorting opportunity.

They eventually put out an "alternate wave count" that explained why things turned out the way they did. (this happened more than once)

My criticism of EWavers is that they get WAY too wrapped up in EW, to the exclusion of everything else, even other credible forms of tech analysis.

The stuff others mention in this thread about debt does have something to it, there has to be some consequence to it. But I think that Pretcher goes to the logical linear extreem on an issue, then plugs his ears to contradicting and mitigating circumstances as they emerge. His trading call record is terrible.

I think is is useless to attempt to predict too far into the future (if you are a trader). The farther out you go, the less acurate it is, and the more likely to prejudice you when new evidence comes to light
More...
Anyone who claims to know what is going to happen outside of the next six minutes in the market is basing their decisions using a different "modus operandi" other than science...

To trade based on what some guy writes some place is silly, unless there are FUNDAMENTAL reasons for the specific case [e.g., Herb Greenberg on RM on EDS, etc.] To invest this way makes a little more sense, but still silly.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:


Anyone who claims to know what is going to happen outside of the next six minutes in the market is basing their decisions using a different "modus operandi" other than science...

To trade based on what some guy writes some place is silly, unless there are FUNDAMENTAL reasons for the specific case [e.g., Herb Greenberg on RM on EDS, etc.] To invest this way makes a little more sense, but still silly.

nitro
More...

So what happens inside the next six minutes "is science?"
 
I always go back to the idea that any instrument can only go three ways and your probability of predicting the direction is about 50/50. About the same as a monkey and a two colored dart board. With all the helps and lots of genius you might get to 60/40 but the odds for this are really poor. So the ant analogy is a good one.
 
nitro,

that is one cool book. one of my faves.


777,

excellent analogy. i can predict what direction an ant will go--- it will be in the direction of food. same thing with the market--the market will go in the direction it is pushed/pulled by greed/fear/supply/demand. these forces can be quantified and expoited given sufficiently advanced methods.

best,

surf :cool: :) :cool:
 
I'm not looking to trade the Kwave or what ever. I'm thinking more of surviving it. I'm not so concerned with Prechter's credibility either. Eventually all these gurus are somewhat right at sometime. I'm more concerned with the possibility that the economy as we know it, could be snuffed out, go the way of Argentina a la the grapes of wrath or for that matter some internut fund. Are we fundamentally as at risk as we've ever been? Like the thirties, or 1840s or tulipville. Has man or academia improved in keeping large scale economic disasters at bay? Or are they just like natural ones. You'd think it might be a priority.

:confused:
 
One word. Not Plastics.

Flake.


Doesn't mean a flake can't be right, but so could my cat type out Shakespeare if given enough time at the keyboard.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top