I donât always have time to watch how stock futures (er, people trading them) behave before a Fed announcement, but when I do I am always amazed, and at the same time repulsed. Volume almost always picks up, and whipsaws are the norm. I donât really understand it. They must feel that they are going to be on the right side. I would not use the word âthink,â since there is little real thought going on.
As a trader I donât try to predict earnings reports, Fed announcements, and such. Frankly, prediction is a foolâs game, since it is an impossibility to know the future. I am more interested in how people react once the news is out. I trade emotion, not prices; I want to be on the other side of those who are banging their keyboards and pulling their hair out (Cramer?) because they are slave to their emotions.
That kind of price action can be gamed and, with discipline, exploited for big money. Any trader worth his or her salt made some money this afternoon.
Nevertheless, those who were actively trading e-minis and other instruments in the minutes before 2:15 today are not traders. They may post here on âElite Traderâ and consider themselves traders. Heck, they might even be leasing a seat on the CME because they trade so much.
But they are NOT traders. Instead, they are gamblers.
Those gamblers might have gotten lucky today by buying stock futures right before 2:15 earned a great return in a very short time (I am not talking about longer term traders or hedgers). Congratulations. You were lucky. Today.
But unless you were privy to Big Benâs announcement before 2:15, you gambled today. Yes, you won, but your windfall was achieved the same way as the winners of the Pick 6 Lotto or those who picked the winner of the SuperBowl after listening to Dan Pastorini's hotline.
Lottery winners who are handed that big three-foot check in a press conference do not receive my admiration.
After all, who would envy a gambler?
It is not really that surprising that many who win Lotto fortunes end up having problems after the win--some lose it all, or simply cannot psychologically deal with their luck. Those who win big money gambling might live in a foolâs paradise, but only a fool would consider that paradise in the first place.
As for todayâs pre-Fed gamblers who won, remember:
Talent had nothing to do with it.
Trading ability had little to nothing to do with it.
Yes, it was pure luck, the luck of a gambler.
Degenerate gamblers very often lose it all. I hope no one on Elite Trader (and their trusting though naïve spouses and children) loses everything. There are some good people on this board, and some of you have taught me a lot. I hate reading stories about people blowing 400K or more because they failed to stick to their discipline.
But if you got lucky gambling today, count your lucky stars. And your money, before it is gone.
As a trader I donât try to predict earnings reports, Fed announcements, and such. Frankly, prediction is a foolâs game, since it is an impossibility to know the future. I am more interested in how people react once the news is out. I trade emotion, not prices; I want to be on the other side of those who are banging their keyboards and pulling their hair out (Cramer?) because they are slave to their emotions.
That kind of price action can be gamed and, with discipline, exploited for big money. Any trader worth his or her salt made some money this afternoon.
Nevertheless, those who were actively trading e-minis and other instruments in the minutes before 2:15 today are not traders. They may post here on âElite Traderâ and consider themselves traders. Heck, they might even be leasing a seat on the CME because they trade so much.
But they are NOT traders. Instead, they are gamblers.
Those gamblers might have gotten lucky today by buying stock futures right before 2:15 earned a great return in a very short time (I am not talking about longer term traders or hedgers). Congratulations. You were lucky. Today.
But unless you were privy to Big Benâs announcement before 2:15, you gambled today. Yes, you won, but your windfall was achieved the same way as the winners of the Pick 6 Lotto or those who picked the winner of the SuperBowl after listening to Dan Pastorini's hotline.
Lottery winners who are handed that big three-foot check in a press conference do not receive my admiration.
After all, who would envy a gambler?
It is not really that surprising that many who win Lotto fortunes end up having problems after the win--some lose it all, or simply cannot psychologically deal with their luck. Those who win big money gambling might live in a foolâs paradise, but only a fool would consider that paradise in the first place.
As for todayâs pre-Fed gamblers who won, remember:
Talent had nothing to do with it.
Trading ability had little to nothing to do with it.
Yes, it was pure luck, the luck of a gambler.
Degenerate gamblers very often lose it all. I hope no one on Elite Trader (and their trusting though naïve spouses and children) loses everything. There are some good people on this board, and some of you have taught me a lot. I hate reading stories about people blowing 400K or more because they failed to stick to their discipline.
But if you got lucky gambling today, count your lucky stars. And your money, before it is gone.