Practicality of Fibonacci Retracements

[Stealth Trader]

Quote from gnome:

Technical Analysis by definition, is "information derived from the issue [stock/ indices"]. TA is not simply "indicators".

PRICE and VOLUME are the raw data. Indicators are derivatives. (Volume, contrary to conventional wisdom, is mostly WORTHLESS!)

Precisely. I find it amazing how few grasp that simple concept.

st

 

[Stealth Trader]

Quote from donperry:

I must say that fibo's do work and they work well. I agree that there are too many fib levels but i only trade 382 and 618.

(forget 50)

But just like trendlines, the only reason fibo works is because of market psychology. A Bunch of traders watching a certain fib Level and trading it accordingly will give fibonacci some merrit and will seem to work....and it does.

But as my friend says, whether we accept it or not it is simply buying the security at a cheaper price (pullback)

Fib numbers are pseudoscience at best in regard to trading the markets. However, because many people do look at them, they can provide a minor edge IF used in conjunction with market internals and not at the levels you stated. Knowing which levels are going to hold and which are not is the key to their working, not the line itself. And being those same levels can be found using other methods, it's not the fibonacci numbers that are "magical." It's your belief that they work, not that they actually do.

That being said, fib numbers are nothing more than a conjecture of predicting what you wish/hope/think is going to happen next. And trying to predict what the market might do next is a losing proposition. As a retail trader, following price as it occurs in real time and acting accordingly rather than some prophecy the market will turn at a predetermined point based on voodoo is the key to being successful. IOW, waiting on the tracks to jump on the next train based on past arrivals could prove to be fatal; best to wait on the sidewalk and then hop on the caboose as it passes.

st

 

[Darkside]

I prefer tarot, personally.

 

[Wallace]

what ! refuted ???

"Thus, either Batchelor and Ramyar's null distribution constructed from block bootstrap is unreliable,
or Fibonacci ratios do occur more often in the stock market than would be expected in a random environment." — sounds like a win-win to me

'Another Look at Fibonacci Statistics' Deepak Goel
http://www.socionomics.net/pdf/Fibo_Statistics.pdf


attached pdf is Prechter's visual of the results of data manipulation

 

[Candara]

Fibonacci rules all the time.

 

[TOM134]

Raul641,

Let the Market tell you when to enter a trade.

Be patient!

Watch.

I hope this helps.

Tom