Potential NQ Targets

[dbphoenix]

Thanks!

I have always wondered how it is that traders seem to move price around the mean, yet most have no idea that they are doing so, and are certainly not putting trades on just because they realize that we have ventured so far away from the mean and now need to return and try for some trades on the other side of the mean. So even though each trader is doing their own thing, collectively, they are all reacting to the mean in some way.

I suppose its like trying to figure out why price is moving up and down. Doing so is impossible to accurately asses nor would it matter, but seeing that there are more sellers than buyers is a fact evidenced by price dropping and something that we can take advantage of.

Again, the mean is created by the trades that are made, not the other way around. If price moves away from what had been the mean and never returns to it other than possibly to bounce off it, then traders are seeking a different value, as they did a year ago. Eventually, as trading stabilizes, a new mean is created, as it was last Spring.

 

[k p]

Looks like we just hit the bottom of the channel, and for the time being, bounced off 3763. Of course its hard to say if we go back up, but wow, we made it!

 

[dbphoenix]

And here we are at the projected target: the bottom of the trend channel.

The trolls hate this stuff for some reason as though my personal profits -- or even whether or not I trade at all -- has something to do with whether or not these targets are met. But AMT was around long before I was born and will be around long after I'm dead.

For the original chart, see post #1

 

[k p]

I take it that we need to first at least go above yesterday's high of 3853 before we can even consider a reversal back up under way?

 

[dbphoenix]

I take it that we need to first at least go above yesterday's high of 3853 before we can even consider a reversal back up under way?

If you want to trade a reversal, just trade the SLA. Yesterday's high isn't pertinent.

 

[k p]

If you want to trade a reversal, just trade the SLA. Yesterday's high isn't pertinent.

Oh yes, of course, I just meant that to the macro view, for this down trend to stop and reverse, either today or over the next few days we would first have to break above that high on the daily chart. Of course we may very well just "ride" this lower trend channel line sideways for a while as we did at the very top for what seems like a few weeks before we ultimately turned back down.

 

[dbphoenix]

Oh yes, of course, I just meant that to the macro view, for this down trend to stop and reverse, either today or over the next few days we would first have to break above that high on the daily chart.

No, for a reversal, the balance between supply and demand would have to shift toward demand, then a retracement and a higher low. Yesterday's high, again, is not pertinent.

 

[dbphoenix]

 

[k p]

You seem to show that if we continue down, possible areas to stop are around 3500, or just above if the middle DL is extended a bit to the right, or even just above 3200, if we use the DL from just after the crash of '08.

Looking at my 5 minute chart today, it certainly is a series of lower highs from overnight right into the day session. We just cannot seem to be able to print a higher high on anything other than a 1 minute chart!

(hope I didn't get any of this wrong)

 

[dbphoenix]

I should point out that, given the volume of trades that took place earlier in the year between 3400 and 3700, it is unlikely that there will be a straight shot downward but rather a lot of back-and-fill.

And note that we have already dropped another 60pts (80, counting the opening rally).

BYNK