Potential breakout on the EUR/USD?
- Thread starter xelite777
- Start date
We all make mistakes, the important thing is to learn from them and move on, there are plenty of new, fresh trading opportunities every day.
Ok, shorting more EUR/USD at 1.3465 (100 pips below my initial short position), the Euro rejected the 38.2% Fibonacci 3 times on the 15 min chart, see below.
I will keep shorting the hell out of the Euro until the music stops, this is how the big money is made!
Uh-uh, EUR/USD going up a bit, out at 1.3480 (15 pip loss on that third short position), all short positions have been reduced, will consider shorting again if the euro closes below the 1.3450 area.
Never fight a trend and never marry a position, even a profitable one (one of my trading rules).
Never fight a trend and never marry a position, even a profitable one (one of my trading rules).
EUR/USD is cooking a strong move to the upside.
I forsee testing february's high.
I forsee testing february's high.
Quote from xelite777:
PS: Sorry, you were saying Blotto...?
Interesting. You tell traders to go short ahead of an 80 point upside break, which will take out most stops placed by undercapitalised amateurs, backed up with a call that the market could go either way....
But you did get in/back in at the highs, so good for you!
Now you still seem to be positioned short, and calling short...
"I will keep shorting the hell out of the Euro until the music stops, this is how the big money is made!"
Perhaps you'll lose your ass going for that big money. I'd be very careful against a short squeeze here....little value in opening new positions short at this time, although kudos to anyone making points on the downside. Question is were those trades placed as part of a logical & successful plan, or did the trader get lucky (random reward) only to go on to lose those points plus more?
"the Euro rejected the 38.2% Fibonacci 3 times on the 15 min chart, see below"
Similar to your short call at the highs, before a stop run, being taken in with illusions of resistance before the market moves higher to take stops. That's 2 for 2 shorting ahead of a stop hunt on this thread. A consistent error? Granted, if you keep getting back in every time you're stopped out, you might eventually catch some big winners. Doesn't mean your trading overall could be termed accurate or even that you will have much of a positive expectancy.
So now that that "fundamental news" has given those in the know the opportunity to establish positions at favourable prices, where next for this instrument. Is there any reason you are calling short not calling long? What is trend?
"We all make mistakes, the important thing is to learn from them and move on, there are plenty of new, fresh trading opportunities every day."
I like this. As long as we learn from the mistake the cause behind the mistake so that we don't make it again. A losing trade is wrong enough not to repeat - nobody will ever get it 100% right but you should aim as high as you can. There are indeed opportunities each day for the very few who can learn and apply what it takes to achieve great success in this business.
Not sure that has anything to do with double and triple top patterns, Fibonacci, or trends though. Could be wrong.
Still, interesting to see people post their charts and calls.
Happy hunting all!
As you can see, Blotto literally laughed at the possibility of a breakout on the EUR/USD .
And then he went mute when the Euro dropped almost 200 pips, cutting through that channel like a knife through butter!
But now that the trend is reversing (due to normal profit taking activity probably) he is back with even more "predictions", like nothing happened
Anyway, I will have my dinner now and reply to some of your comments in a moment.
And then he went mute when the Euro dropped almost 200 pips, cutting through that channel like a knife through butter!
But now that the trend is reversing (due to normal profit taking activity probably) he is back with even more "predictions", like nothing happened
Anyway, I will have my dinner now and reply to some of your comments in a moment.
Sure. A squeeze was on to take out stops. You called short at so called "double top" resistance and then came on to post "what was that big spike", a spike I had been calling for on another thread earlier that day. (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3903121#post3903121)
No, I congratulated you on a good trade. So saying that I went mute when I acknowledged you got that trade right isn't true, is it? See, above, I even said:
"you did get in/back in at the highs, so good for you!"
I also pointed out that selling resistance patterns doesn't lead to overall net profits, or everyone who applied textbook TA would be rich. How many folks who lost 50 pips or more trading your resistance pattern when the market broke hard upside can afford to get back in? Most aren't gonna last long in this business taking 50 pip losses. While it is good that you took some profits on a big move, you tried to enter short at fibs again and got stopped out for 15 pip loss. How many more of those before the 200 pips is gone? My purpose in posting initially was to say that calling a top ahead of a stop run, but then telling traders there could be a break either way isn't necessarily the best way to teach consistently profitable trading, assuming of course that is the goal in sharing your analysis.
Well if the "trend is reversing" why are you still short, and telling us like you did above:Quote from xelite777:
But now that the trend is reversing (due to normal profit taking activity probably) he is back with even more "predictions", like nothing happened
"I will keep shorting the hell out of the Euro until the music stops, this is how the big money is made!"
So can you recognise when the music stops and when to open positions opposite the so called trend? Thats between you and your broker!
It would be a shame if you give back the profits continuing to short a market which has bottomed. I've seen that happen with traders - they score big, get over confident, think they will make even more money, pyramid up aggressively, and miss the trade they should be in to take points on the other side of the market.
Thanks for your good wishes. No, still not feeling well. Actually, the times I post at ET correlate quite well with the times I'm in no condition to do much else. So I can see how I'm not exactly seen at my best. And perhaps not all will agree with the way I communicate, and to some I might come over as annoying or a bit of a know it all.
Still, sometimes I think I can share a bit of what I've learned about trading, some questioning and ways of approaching the market which have worked for me. Probably won't work for everyone, and some may not see value in what I post. I know from some messages I've received that some have found a few gems in the seemingly endless screeds I post.
I'm not posting to put anyone down, and I don't detract from anyone's level of success. We can all set our own goals, and I've respect for anyone who is net profitable working in this very difficult business.
I've been around enough to know what doesn't work (consistently and reliably), and standard technical analysis as taught in books and internet forums isn't something that is going to lead anyone to consistent success. I note your new chart, which shows the short which worked, but funnily enough doesn't show the previous short which was either stopped out or took nearly a full cent of heat. Nor dos it show, and I'll draw it on, all the losses that a trader who sold double top or resistance patterns in this so called downtrend since the low at 1.33 would have suffered. Enough that being bailed out by a big move, if the trader had the conviction to keep trading the method after a series of losses, would be a welcome relief.
For me, I've always focused on trying to get my entries consistently right, and limiting and losses when wrong. This allows the use of leverage and compounding which is a good way to make the most of this business. But I'm also a premature ejaculator, and frequently moves continue well after I've taken a profit, or I don't get to participate in them at all. Maybe I'd be a lot richer if I were better at riding out these 200 pip moves that some here seem to be so good at calling....only time will tell whether missing some of the home runs in favour of being a singles and doubles player is wise or foolish. There's the old Rothschild saw about always selling too soon....
Continuing to call shorts in this market suggests that you still have a fair bit of learning to do, but just my opinion. I'll let the market have the final say, perhaps someone can post a chart in a weeks time, see where we are, and again in a month.
This is your thread, I'll let you get on with showing/teaching, and you did correctly call the downside break (albeit after an upside break which took the bulk of short positioning out the market). You got back in, good for you. Hope your method brings you all the prosperity you wish for.
Good trading all!
Still, sometimes I think I can share a bit of what I've learned about trading, some questioning and ways of approaching the market which have worked for me. Probably won't work for everyone, and some may not see value in what I post. I know from some messages I've received that some have found a few gems in the seemingly endless screeds I post.
I'm not posting to put anyone down, and I don't detract from anyone's level of success. We can all set our own goals, and I've respect for anyone who is net profitable working in this very difficult business.
I've been around enough to know what doesn't work (consistently and reliably), and standard technical analysis as taught in books and internet forums isn't something that is going to lead anyone to consistent success. I note your new chart, which shows the short which worked, but funnily enough doesn't show the previous short which was either stopped out or took nearly a full cent of heat. Nor dos it show, and I'll draw it on, all the losses that a trader who sold double top or resistance patterns in this so called downtrend since the low at 1.33 would have suffered. Enough that being bailed out by a big move, if the trader had the conviction to keep trading the method after a series of losses, would be a welcome relief.
For me, I've always focused on trying to get my entries consistently right, and limiting and losses when wrong. This allows the use of leverage and compounding which is a good way to make the most of this business. But I'm also a premature ejaculator, and frequently moves continue well after I've taken a profit, or I don't get to participate in them at all. Maybe I'd be a lot richer if I were better at riding out these 200 pip moves that some here seem to be so good at calling....only time will tell whether missing some of the home runs in favour of being a singles and doubles player is wise or foolish. There's the old Rothschild saw about always selling too soon....
Continuing to call shorts in this market suggests that you still have a fair bit of learning to do, but just my opinion. I'll let the market have the final say, perhaps someone can post a chart in a weeks time, see where we are, and again in a month.
This is your thread, I'll let you get on with showing/teaching, and you did correctly call the downside break (albeit after an upside break which took the bulk of short positioning out the market). You got back in, good for you. Hope your method brings you all the prosperity you wish for.
Good trading all!
What?? I told traders to do what?? Reread this topic carefully, I never asked anybody to do anything (in this thread or any other thread), I was merely suggesting the - high - possibility of a breakdown on the EUR/USD.
Are you for real??? Are you suggesting that I caused that spike just to trap buyers??? Who do you think I am, freaking Soros?
Do you have any idea how much money you need to move the almighty EUR/USD by just one (1) lousy pip???
That is true, I shorted the EUR/USD at 1.3565 then again at 1.3555 (10 pips lower) and for the same amount of lots, then again at 1.3465 (15 pip loss on that 3rd and now closed short position).
Will continue later, I am currently getting a few signals on the Yen and the Australian dollar.
Cant we all get along ? Its a lonely profession.