Pot. Breakouts on ADI(long)/AMWD(long)/GOV (short)

M

MadeMan

GOV potential weak position ...
RDJUrXD.png

Rejected MP of Range @26.40
Price stumbles along at the lower channelline without making any upside progress
forms a range with resistance beeing 50%mark of prev. down move @25.30
lower high within range
pot. rejection of MP @24.75

AMWD potential strong position
fclvLc0.png

Uptrend still intact
Higher low @ support 32.25

ADI pot. strong position
ZKBuNWu.png

Beautiful uptrend
pot springboard off former MP @47.85
 
wwatson1 said:
GOV looks like a load of sideways rubbish, would keep away, the other two would be excellent longs
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Yea GOV is in a sideways choppy action, but given the fact that price,didnt do what
one might "expect" at "demand levels" ie. showing strenght.. it most likely will do the
opposite , add the other signs of weakness i listed above and we are in a pretty weak
position


however anything can happen , and one might let price decide its course and let price
come to your entry if ever.. and shorting a swing high riskwise is almost always a good
place.. so one could wait till we break the trendline , and short (sellstop) the first
retracement there after .. which if triggerd gives us a good chance to at least test the
suport level again.. and from then on , one just has to manage his position accordingly..
where we would be allready in a good position if a breakout to the downside occures..

9a6bSNx.png
 
Compare your ADI Bollinger band chart with what is on my link. My chart shows it should go down. It depends on how you build your chart:)
 
hajimow said:
Unless you want to close your eyes to the fundamentals (earnings and outlook) abd just stare at the chart, you might be right but ADI predicted a 6-8% down for this quarter and will most probably will do the same for the next Quarter as TXN and CSCO did. Buying stocks just based on chart is like playing with fire. ADI will report on this Tuesday.

http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=adi&=Consult
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HI

i actually do close my eyes on fundys etc.. i only focus on price, so how much of that "information" is allready priced in ? , the market is always right in the end, no mather what fundys say, predict or taken for fact... if all cards are dealed its in the market, who decides its course...

but, i picked the stocks.. because earnings are ahead in the coming days.. if an entry did happen those data,news might propell you in the desired direction, or it might knock you out.. or it gives u a chance to re evalute your initial position for good or worse.. depends on how the market reacts to the data.. thou ;)
 
hajimow said:
Compare your ADI Bollinger band chart with what is on my link. My chart shows it should go down. It depends on how you build your chart:)
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is that your site ?


how ever i actually hid, a bigger channel ,. just to keep the picture clear but anyway
here is the picture with the bigger channel (light blue)applied..

6RJZjBk.png



as u can see , the dashed line is the mean of the uptrend, and price took the mean as unfair low over time , ie. we whitness strenghtening , which just adds to the allready strong position we are in atm..

btw. i like your last sentence , true words, but in the end it only counts what u make out of it.. and after all its,making money.. i for myself dont like aggresive stop entrys above or below res. sup. but rather wait (if that happens) on a pullback after a level is cleared.. etc.. after all it depends on ones plan ,, if he makes money on the long run or not..
 
No that is not my site. I occasionally use that site. I used to use it a lot abut that site is correct only 50% of the time as other predictions and sentiments but that is computer generated site so I consider it as unbiased info.
 
Once again I am not impressed with ADI results out on Feb 18. Here are my reasons:
1- The earning was 48 cent GAAP and 49 cent non GAAP where that once cent is because management does not want to include restructuring cost as real cost that many analysts don't like it. So it was an in line result. Q to Q change was down 7%.
2- Their next Q estimate is below analysts' estimate of $670
3- The cost for next Q will go up 2%. Now they are lean and mean and cannot reduce cost anymore.
4- They announced "authorizing" 1B of buyback which is increased from 470. Now let's look at last year's and last Q buybacks based on the report. It was less than 150M while they were authorized to buy 470M so that is just an authorization and not an action. Many companies do that so that is just something to say and not action. If you look at the diluted shares, it see that it is actually increasing every quarter because of the stock options that the employees and specially that 0.5% are cashing so basically that buyback money goes directly to big guys pocket (we don't care) but that does not help to get a better P/E because of reducing the number of shares.
5- The dividend is increased by 3 cents to 37 cents which is about 70% of the earnings (37/48). That is making ADI look like a utility company with no growth and just passing the earnings to the share holders. Nothing is wrong with that but the P/E of a utility company is usually around 10 and not 25.
why it is up? well because people don't read between the lines and just read the title of the report. Market is in BUY BUY mood and once it is over, ADI will also face the reality.
My source:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analog-devices-reports-first-quarter-210500467.html
 
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