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[contra]

Noise is everywhere, as no one can predict what retail traders or financial institutions are going to do with their money next.

What I mean by noise is the constant, non-stop financial "information" we receive from the media (TV, newspapers, internet) or from other traders (forums, live chat-rooms, blogs, etc...).

That's why I believe we should concentrate on the charts and the charts only.

Ok so you like to trade noise with no idea what is going on, that I knew already.

How is your backtested system doing so far btw?

 

[boskop]

Yes, but it's not that easy.
First you have to find a way to determine the exact amount of money flowing from country to country at any given time (almost in real time if you trade on the small time frames).

Confidence in an economy and specifically in- and outflows in the respective bond market. We've been seeing this in the Euro zone. Periphary markets like spanish bonds etc.. have been enjoying a good amount of demand. That's why, despite the monetary policy outlook of ECB likely to ease in the foreseable future, EUR/USD was quite strong in recent months. However, which force is about to win, we shall be interested to see very soon. The technicals at least confirm my fundamental view here, hence I'm short.

And statements from the FED, central banks officials and the politicians about monetary policies are sometimes very vague and could be interpreted in many, many ways.

Either they move from hawkish to neutral to dovish, or the other way round. For me it's relatively easy to see where they are going. For example the RBA moved to halt interest rate changes, after a series of rate cuts, so therefore I was comfortable going long AUD/USD last time.

The RBNZ complains about the impact of high-valued NZD, but still the outlook remains to increase rates, hence I'm comfortable to go long NZD/JPY (and especially short JPY because of obvious fundamental reasons).

But as you already know, the most important thing is HOW the traders react to these financial statements and reports.

That's why I don't trade news, but only afterwards, after the market shows me how they interprete the data. If it conflicts with my fundamental view, I pass and stay on the sidelines. Else I'm jumping in.

And only charts can tell us what is really happening, in the here and now. That's why I completely ignore the noise and concentrate on the charts and the charts only, they never lie.

Right that's the purely technical trader's view and it's perfectly valid because like you say everything can be pretty clear in how the market appears on the chart. Again we meet at the same conclusions, that everyone has their own trading style that fits their personality and qualities.

 

[xelite777]

Ok so you like to trade noise with no idea what is going on.

Well, we will see about that...

How is your backtested system doing so far btw?

So far minus 143 pips, since the beginning of this thread.

EUR/GBP trade is still open (10 pip profit as we speak).

The GBP/JPY trade could have worked (75 pips in potential profit so far) but the long pending order was not triggered, the price came 3 pips near my entry point this morning and then moved higher without me.

 

[boskop]

Short GBP/JPY at 172.40. Stop on a daily close above 143. Looking to build into the position if it goes in my favour.

 

[contra]

Well, we will see about that...



So far minus 143 pips, since the beginning of this thread.

EUR/GBP trade is still open (10 pip profit as we speak).

The GBP/JPY trade could have worked (75 pips in potential profit so far) but the long pending order was not triggered, the price came 3 pips near my entry point this morning and then moved higher without me.

Could have worked, and historical potential profit can not be counted.

I don't know the exact details of the stats, but so far there seems to be no edge whatsoever.

 

[xelite777]

Short GBP/JPY at 172.40. Stop on a daily close above 143. Looking to build into the position if it goes in my favour.

You sure about that Boskop?

On the daily chart we have a nice ascending triangle in an uptrend, usually a bullish formation.

The only thing good here is the potential triple-top configuration, so I assume you are betting on the reversal.

 

[boskop]

You sure about that Boskop?

On the daily chart we have a nice ascending triangle in an uptrend, usually a bullish formation.

The only thing good here is the potential triple-top configuration, so I assume you are betting on the reversal.

nope, I am not sure at all

This dragon has become an intra-day mess, so I look at closing prices and OMG IT MAKES SENSE AGAIN

yes, betting on a reversal, and a huge one for that matter, that's why starting small.

 

[xelite777]

I don't know the exact details of the stats, but so far there seems to be no edge whatsoever.

Yes you are right again, of course.

In fact the Wall Street Journal is going to publish a story about my heavy losses tomorrow.

The front page will read like this :

"Amazing but true: Forex trader lost an unbelievable 143 pips in less than two weeks! From Sydney to New York, Forex traders around the globe are in shock! Top financial analysts fear a possible violent market reaction with global ramifications!!"

 

[xelite777]

yes, betting on a reversal, and a huge one for that matter, that's why starting small.

Yep, if that triple-top holds you are going to collect some serious beer money!

Listening to Chopin while trading, eh? Good man, he is one of my favorite music composer!

 

[contra]

Yes you are right again, of course.

In fact the Wall Street Journal is going to publish a story about my heavy losses tomorrow.

The front page will read like this :

"Amazing but true: Forex trader lost an unbelievable 143 pips in less than two weeks! From Sydney to New York, Forex traders around the globe are in shock! Top financial analysts fear a possible violent market reaction with global ramifications!!"

I don't think they write about people trading on demo accounts...