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I am NOT talking about the mechanics of the trade itself, I am talking about its outcome as far as the probability of the system is concerned.

You are, after all, paying double the spread to initiate two positions.




It's EURNZD. Short.

EURJPY LONG and NZDJPY LONG would not reduce to the natural. It would be two distinct positions funded in yen. Then you could pull-out your ridiculous correlation fiction. I cannot believe that you don't know the most basic FX math.
 
It all comes down to monetary policy and money flows.

Yes, but it's not that easy.

First you have to find a way to determine the exact amount of money flowing from country to country at any given time (almost in real time if you trade on the small time frames).

And statements from the FED, central banks officials and the politicians about monetary policies are sometimes very vague and could be interpreted in many, many ways.

But as you already know, the most important thing is HOW the traders react to these financial statements and reports.

And only charts can tell us what is really happening, in the here and now. That's why I completely ignore the noise and concentrate on the charts and the charts only, they never lie.
 
In the meanwhile, amid a lot of hate here, even seeing posts disappear, I am listening to Chopin's Ballade op. 23 and it's really beautiful. -> recommended to calm down
 
Yes, but it's not that easy.

First you have to find a way to determine the exact amount of money flowing from country to country at any given time (almost in real time if you trade on the small time frames).

And statements from the FED, central banks officials and the politicians about monetary policies are sometimes very vague and could be interpreted in many, many ways.

But as you already know, the most important thing is HOW the traders react to these financial statements and reports.

And only charts can tell us what is really happening, in the here and now. That's why I completely ignore the noise and concentrate on the charts and the charts only.

Are you saying there is no noise on 15m charts in FX?
 
Are you saying there is no noise on 15m charts in FX?

Noise is everywhere, as no one can predict what retail traders or financial institutions are going to do with their money next.

What I mean by noise is the constant, non-stop financial "information" we receive from the media (TV, newspapers, internet) or from other traders (forums, live chat-rooms, blogs, etc...).

That's why I believe we should concentrate on the charts and the charts only.
 
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