Post your live Forex trades here...

[justrading]

Ok, forget about maximum drawdown, let's just use the average monthly drawdown of a winning trading system (system X). Let's say that this average monthly drawdown is 100 pips.

When system X reaches a 100 pip drawdown on any given month, would you bet even money that it will reach 200 pip drawdown before recovering from this 100 pip drawdown? Do you really think you can make money (or simply break even!) if you keep betting like that , in the long run?

If your answer is YES then I've got some excellent swamp lands to sell you in Florida.

You love shifting the goalposts and setting up straw men. Given up on your original argument I see.

How about the probability of a 120 pip drawdown for that month, then 110 the next, and 130 and so on until you go broke? Then it stays under 100 for the next 5 years.

And do enlighten us mere mortals why your fantastic 25 year back tested system with its cast iron profitability and max drawdown is now reduced to proving its viability one month at a time.

Not so cocky after a string of losses I see. Switch to selling options. It's biased to the seller, right? More guaranteed money.

 

[boskop]

I am hedging my JPY longs a bit via this setup:

i just doubled the size of this long NZD/JPY setup, and trailed the stop to last week's low.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Looks like the CAD/JPY is forming an ascending triangle on the 15 min chart.

Usually this type of formation appears during an uptrend, but in some cases it could simply signal the end of a downtrend...

Do FX charts have volume?

 

[Wide Tailz]

he will first create tons of false breakouts ("Peekaboo, I am here, follow me this way!!") before finally behaving himself and going the right way!

I've had the same experience with illiquid small cap stox. Later I saw the futility of buying breakouts in such noisy securities, and realized the money was in providing liquidity :eek:

GBP looks like a prime candidate for this type of business, but weak hands are leveraged hands. You can't let it shake you out so you have to trade small and often.

 

[xelite777]

Given up on your original argument I see.

The same logic applies to the maximum drawdown of a system, you know that and I know that. I used the average monthly drawdown in this example simply because they are more frequent (waiting for the max drawdown could take years).

How about the probability of a 120 pip drawdown for that month, then 110 the next, and 130 and so on until you go broke? Then it stays under 100 for the next 5 years.

Well post your own cannot-fail Forex trades then, and show us how good you are.

Not so cocky after a string of losses I see...

Pffff.....

 

[boskop]

gah... can't you people just hug each other

 

[lotto]

I'll try another EUR/JPY paper trade: short right here at 140.30, stop loss at 140.40, and buy limit at 139.90.

 

[xelite777]

I have a limit buy order at 171.65 on the GBP/JPY, 47 pip stop.

Do FX charts have volume?

No, unfortunately. But currency futures, yes, even though the volume on the futures market is almost useless for trading the Forex market.

I'll try another EUR/JPY paper trade: short right here at 140.30, stop loss at 140.40, and buy limit at 139.90.

Be careful, small stop loss like that (10 pips) are deadly in the long run, unless your entry point is extremely accurate most of the time and your profit target is big enough.

In fact, FX brokers just love these tiny stops...

 

[xelite777]

Oh boy, trading during the Asian session is like watching grass grow, yawn yawn...

I am going to watch a Peter O'Toole movie on my computer or something.

 

[xelite777]

Sell short EUR/GBP on a limit at 0.8165, 20 pip stop.