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[xelite777]

On the menu this evening, the JPY Trade Balance at 7:50 PM, and the AUD Business Confidence report at 9:30 PM, New York time, so let's start with these two currencies first...

 

[boskop]

No no, absolutely no revenge trading here Boskop, on the contrary, it's called trading with confidence.

cool, in the meantime i confidently added a few orders to short EUR/USD around 1.38 with stops above last weeks close.

 

[xelite777]

i confidently added a few orders to short EUR/USD around 1.38 with stops above last weeks close.

Seems like a reasonable trading decision.

 

[boskop]

errr i mean thursday's close .. 1.3850
usually these closes of reversal days are of importance

 

[xelite777]

errr i mean thursday's close .. 1.3850
usually these closes of reversal days are of importance

The Euro is clearly losing steam against the buck, on almost any time frame, so the keyword here is SHORT.

I do have a (still not confirmed) possible short trade on the EUR/GBP.

I hate this freaking pair though, it moves in a very weird way most of the time.

 

[boskop]

I do have a (still not confirmed) possible short trade on the EUR/GBP.

I hate this freaking pair though, it moves in a very weird way most of the time.

That's probably because of the GBP, which has indeed its own weird way of moving. First taking out each and every high and low, before finally making its move..

 

[xelite777]

That's probably because of the GBP, which has indeed its own weird way of moving. First taking out each and every high and low, before finally making its move..

Don't even get me started with the GBP, this low-life punk does not respect anything!

He does not care about trendlines, support and resistance lines, Fibonacci levels, pivot points, NOTHING, he will first create tons of false breakouts ("Peekaboo, I am here, follow me this way!!") before finally behaving himself and going the right way!

 

[justrading]

Don't trade?

No, that would be discarding the biggest edge of all, almost guaranteed winners.

This system has been back tested for 25 years. Once he reaches the max drawdown, everything becomes sunshine and roses. We simply do not understand statistics and probabilities at his level.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=280506&highlight=Sub-set&page=5

 

[xelite777]

Looks like the CAD/JPY is forming an ascending triangle on the 15 min chart.

Usually this type of formation appears during an uptrend, but in some cases it could simply signal the end of a downtrend...

 

[xelite777]

No, that would be discarding the biggest edge of all, almost guaranteed winners.

This system has been back tested for 25 years. Once he reaches the max drawdown, everything becomes sunshine and roses. We simply do not understand statistics and probabilities at his level.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=280506&highlight=Sub-set&page=5

Ok, forget about maximum drawdown, let's just use the average monthly drawdown of a winning trading system (system X). Let's say that this average monthly drawdown is 100 pips.

When system X reaches a 100 pip drawdown on any given month, would you bet even money that it will reach 200 pip drawdown before recovering from this 100 pip drawdown? Do you really think you can make money (or simply break even!) if you keep betting like that , in the long run?

If your answer is YES then I've got some excellent swamp land to sell you in Florida.