Post Election Impact on US Equities

[Pekelo]

Quote from syswizard:

Amazing how accurate Intrade was.

Actually, Intrade was a bit off compared to other betting sites. They gave a much bigger chance for Obama than Intrade.....

 

[Klamath]

Quote from Pekelo:

Actually, Intrade was a bit off compared to other betting sites. They gave a much bigger chance for Obama than Intrade.....

Sounds like an arbitrage opportunity.

 

[tradingjournals]

QQQ at 64.20 area: Is smart money bulls around the corner?

Is Mittens shorting the market at this price? Could I stick it to him?

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from mutluit:

From market's view, if Romney wins the market will go up,
if Obama wins the market will basically stay flat.
BUT: it will be only a short term (3 days, We-Fr).
For the next 2 months the market has to go down, regardless of who wins.
BTW, I favor Obama

I read this and laughed. What if it sells off one to two days after election, and then goes up for remainder of year?

 

[jsp326]

The official story of today's drop is that investors are pricing in the fiscal cliff and facing up to the reality of how little "change" we've had. I was expecting all of this to be priced in around August--that's the way markets usually handle events that are likely to happen. This is especially true since an Obama victory has been probable since then.

I wonder if some combination of QE, HFT and who knows what else has caused the market's discounting mechanism to go haywire?

 

[Pekelo]

Let's check where we are at:

Quote from Pekelo:

1. Obama wins easily by the EC.
2. Market drops 3-4 % in the next 3 days...

Market is down -2.5%..... I meant 2.7%...

Quote from Klamath:

Sounds like an arbitrage opportunity.

I actually thought about that. I am not sure how liquid these sites are, but the opportunity was there. Also, Intrade was probably used for effecting the outcome, and that's why it was off more than the others...

 

[jsp326]

Quote from tradingjournals:

I read this and laughed. What if it sells off one to two days after election, and then goes up for remainder of year?

It means the market had a reality check (it's occasionally rational, after all). Then the prospects of QEinfinite took back over the sentiment.

Of course, the power of QE is ultimately limited and fleeting, but it may keep things going for awhile.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from Pekelo:

Let's check where we are at:



Market is down -2.5%..... I meant 2.7%...



I actually thought about that. I am not sure how liquid these sites are, but the opportunity was there. Also, Intrade was probably used for effecting the outcome, and that's why it was off more than the others...

Could you show me some good stocks that are selling off? I looked at some stocks that looked good to me, but they acted as if there were no sell off.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from tradingjournals:

Could you show me some good stocks that are selling off?

I am not really into stocks. The few I follow are down just as much as the general market, not more. Also, if I am right with this 3-4%, the biggest part of the move is already behind us, so not much left on the short side....

 

[Pekelo]

So what did I win?

2. Market drops 3-4 % in the next 3 days...

This morning the market bounced back heavy after dropping -4.2% from Tuesday's close. Sorry about that 0.2%....