Possibly Important TA Tops...

[lariatier]

I like the charts but at this point I am done following anything besides NVDA in US equity. Who cares outside NVDA? It is a ripping bull market. The drift is up if no reason to short.

Scataphagos, those NQ and ES charts are very interesting because I have completely stopped following equity futures here. Again, who cares? We don't need to figure out the information entropy of those candles to know the cause.

Nike and Walgreens? Who cares. It doesn't matter. It obviously doesn't matter. Our brains are so bad at ignoring data that happens to find our eyes.

To short the index here is to short NVDA before Sora and ChatGPT5. I just don't see the r

On longer TFs I'm worried about the following potentially unfolding scenario:


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[Clubber Lang]

I like the charts but at this point I am done following anything besides NVDA in US equity. Who cares outside NVDA? It is a ripping bull market. The drift is up if no reason to short.

Scataphagos, those NQ and ES charts are very interesting because I have completely stopped following equity futures here. Again, who cares? We don't need to figure out the information entropy of those candles to know the cause.

Nike and Walgreens? Who cares. It doesn't matter. It obviously doesn't matter. Our brains are so bad at ignoring data that happens to find our eyes.

To short the index here is to short NVDA before Sora and ChatGPT5. I just don't see the r

Even a raging stock like NVDA has wicked pullbacks before the next leg up.

 

[lariatier]

I am up 20% short NVDA this year and flat. I would never smoke crack but I can't imagine it feels better than reloading the browser and price crashing being short NVDA in 2024.

That said, just terrible trading. Complete idiots have smoked me on the long side. It is a bull market.

Even a raging stock like NVDA has wicked pullbacks before the next leg up.

 

[PPC]

I am up 20% short NVDA this year and flat. I would never smoke crack but I can't imagine it feels better than reloading the browser and price crashing being short NVDA in 2024.

That said, just terrible trading. Complete idiots have smoked me on the long side. It is a bull market.

I think those-perma bulls either didn't experience the fast/crashing bear markets or have forgotten. Greed is a powerful motivator, until fear steps in

Currently I don't have any long overnight positions in the US equity markets, only options spreads that are long in Vega (IV), so I don't have to fear the downside if/when it comes.


I’d actually welcome a drop and/or sideways market. I missed the NVDA short, but caught the MSFT (with options), and now I’m stalking SPX and few other vehicles for a short/sideways opportunity to take advantage of the low implied volatility.


V-shaped reversals are not that common in equities, it’s more likely that there will be a bull-trap before a sell-off, but I’d rather be safe than sorry.


Here is another chart with using different market framework which amkes me worried.

 

[tony.m]

This is for all you little weenies who whine that I only post after the play has occurred and not before (you know who you are)... Well, here's your alert... in advance.

NQ double top? Arrows

ES double top? Same

All Price TA players should be aware. May be "the big top" (doubt it), but may be a local top for correction. Regardless, PIVOT... long bias above, short bias below. That's "Price TA".

FWIW...

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Where would your SL be if you enter on the arrows ?

 

[TheDawn]

This is for all you little weenies who whine that I only post after the play has occurred and not before (you know who you are)... Well, here's your alert... in advance.

NQ double top? Arrows

ES double top? Same

All Price TA players should be aware. May be "the big top" (doubt it), but may be a local top for correction. Regardless, PIVOT... long bias above, short bias below. That's "Price TA".

FWIW...

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Everything will depend on what's happening next week. A lot of economic numbers are coming out next week plus Powell is speaking. If those numbers are bad and/or if Powell gave the tiniest hint that the Fed is relaxing just a tiny bit on its inflation-fighting stance, the market will take off, way off. These double tops won't materialize. The double tops only happens when the price goes down from now on. This is why reading these TA PA patterns is really tricky sometimes especially when the market is so news driven nowadays.

 

[Scataphagos]

These double tops won't materialize.

You're wrong sweetie. The double top potential as indicated has already materialized. ES dropped 75 points... the possibility of that kind of thing was all that was inferred. Now, on to the next trade.

 

[Scataphagos]

Where would your SL be if you enter on the arrows ?

Some amount above the tops line... maybe 10 points? Maybe less? Exactly where to place stops is an art.

 

[Scataphagos]

I used to know a Guy who'd draw TLs and S&R on 45 minute etc Charts and wonder how much are those timeframes being watched by people who actually move the Market. He disappeared, I assume blew up.

There are a few reasons some trader might blow up, but "buying support", and "selling resistance" are not two of them.

 

[TheDawn]

You're wrong sweetie. The double top potential as indicated has already materialized. ES dropped 75 points... the possibility of that kind of thing was all that was inferred. Now, on to the next trade.

All I am saying is, sweetie, you have to wait for the other shoe to drop before declaring tops. Imo the other shoe still hasn't dropped. There are still a lot of market-moving numbers and news that are coming out next that could change the course of PA dramatically.

Anyway, we shall see what happens next week...