Possibility of Market Dump Due to Healthcare Bill
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Quote from shortie:
I am getting more and more convinced that the healthcare bill passage may knock down the market short-term. Share your thoughts here. this thread is for market action due to to likely bill passage.
this thread is NOT about bickering why the bill is good/bad, save those for Rennik's thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=194119&highlight=healthcare
"Shorty the Fade" even whispering sell-off means we rally hard. Buy any weakness Fellas, 11 K here we come!!!
The Amazing Rennick out
Posting this shit after the futures market opens with a gap down doesn't make you look like a genius.
The market will do whatever it wants to do regardless of what you think. This is the problem with 90% of retail traders - trying to guess market direction.
So they put up 500 technical indicators, touch the parameters, do all sorts of gyrations and rationale themselves into a corner of "this is what it WILL DO".
They go out, find a place where there are tons of traders and try to convince them they are right. They close their ears and hide their eyes on opposite responses. They seek confirmation but never realize that confirmation from the herd often is wrong.
Every dumbass wants to be a market guru. They want to be right and seek approval from their peers. They spend so much time trying to gain this respect that they miss their trades and fuckup. They soon doubt themselves and pull their trades too early just so they don't fuck up and look bad. They want to be correct, rather than trade well.
Even if it does go their way, its luck pure and simple. Trying to predict market direction is a complete waste of time. The only thing that matters is what is happening NOW and what you are going to do about it.
The market will do whatever it wants to do regardless of what you think. This is the problem with 90% of retail traders - trying to guess market direction.
So they put up 500 technical indicators, touch the parameters, do all sorts of gyrations and rationale themselves into a corner of "this is what it WILL DO".
They go out, find a place where there are tons of traders and try to convince them they are right. They close their ears and hide their eyes on opposite responses. They seek confirmation but never realize that confirmation from the herd often is wrong.
Every dumbass wants to be a market guru. They want to be right and seek approval from their peers. They spend so much time trying to gain this respect that they miss their trades and fuckup. They soon doubt themselves and pull their trades too early just so they don't fuck up and look bad. They want to be correct, rather than trade well.
Even if it does go their way, its luck pure and simple. Trying to predict market direction is a complete waste of time. The only thing that matters is what is happening NOW and what you are going to do about it.
are there really people here who would be surprised with a market pullback after option expirations in the face of the historic run we have had?
After such an intense run up in the markets where stocks are up hundreds of percent most longs and permabulls will argue that no matter what the rally will continue, they are actually very surprised by Fridays .25% drop and will continue to be baffled if the markets actually dipped 1%, 5%, or even 10%.
It will take the bill to be signed and actually hold.
The market may sell of a little, but 37 states are going to sue the FED, their will be a fight to push the bill out as unconstitutional.
There may be great volititly for traders...but this is not over.
So, i don't think we will see a huge sell off, more range volitility.
Oil, Gold may push higher....
Dollar may dump.
But the vote tonight is more symbolic than anything.
This will be a fight til nov...when the DEMS will be thrown out in huge numbers.
The market may sell of a little, but 37 states are going to sue the FED, their will be a fight to push the bill out as unconstitutional.
There may be great volititly for traders...but this is not over.
So, i don't think we will see a huge sell off, more range volitility.
Oil, Gold may push higher....
Dollar may dump.
But the vote tonight is more symbolic than anything.
This will be a fight til nov...when the DEMS will be thrown out in huge numbers.
Markets hate uncertainty. So they will head down. How far depends on a number of factors. If Obamacare is total uncertainty with health care costs spiraling out of control:
- No one gets turned down. Guess who gets to pay? Voters? Why no its business. Then business will raise prices to cover cost and pass health care cost back their employees. Then employees who have less as consumers spend less.
- Then there are the new taxes and Medicare fee loss. Healthcare and in particular hospitals will ask insurance companies for 50% to 60% increases to cover cost increases, loss of Medicare fees and increases of 20% in patient loads.
- Employees will find insurance changes in the mail from the above two with a bill that 40 to 60% higher than the previous. This is the beginning of the health cost spiral.
- Some profitable small businesses will be shut down by Obamacare.
- Some multinational big businesses will review expanding employment elsewhere because of spiraling health care costs here.
- National big business will put hiring on hold until cost structures from Obamacare are clearly defined.
- Court challenges to this bill by states will further muddy the bills status.
- New statements by democrats to pass a public option to the bill before November will drive health insurance stocks into the ground.
These are just some of things that may drive consumers and businesses to hold onto cash flow until the smoke clears. If this happens the expansion is in trouble and so is the market.
- No one gets turned down. Guess who gets to pay? Voters? Why no its business. Then business will raise prices to cover cost and pass health care cost back their employees. Then employees who have less as consumers spend less.
- Then there are the new taxes and Medicare fee loss. Healthcare and in particular hospitals will ask insurance companies for 50% to 60% increases to cover cost increases, loss of Medicare fees and increases of 20% in patient loads.
- Employees will find insurance changes in the mail from the above two with a bill that 40 to 60% higher than the previous. This is the beginning of the health cost spiral.
- Some profitable small businesses will be shut down by Obamacare.
- Some multinational big businesses will review expanding employment elsewhere because of spiraling health care costs here.
- National big business will put hiring on hold until cost structures from Obamacare are clearly defined.
- Court challenges to this bill by states will further muddy the bills status.
- New statements by democrats to pass a public option to the bill before November will drive health insurance stocks into the ground.
These are just some of things that may drive consumers and businesses to hold onto cash flow until the smoke clears. If this happens the expansion is in trouble and so is the market.
I am buying quality stocks and so do big mutual funds. Tech stocks financial outlook is very strong and like it or not, the recovery is creeping up (slowly). I don't want to be in denial and short the market while the long term outlook is positive. There is nothing wrong with taking short term profit. Will teh market crash because of health care bill? The answer is hell no. Market going down 0.7% and then ending flat for the day is not even a correction
I'm feeling better holding my longs.