Possibility of Market Dump Due to Healthcare Bill

[turkeyneck]

Quote from shortie:

Cramer has some valid points here:

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2010/20100319055725.aspx
As CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer predicted – if it passes, get ready to see a sell-off on Wall Street. Cramer appeared on CNBC’s March 18 “The Kudlow Report,” with his former broadcast partner Larry Kudlow. Kudlow asked Cramer to elaborate on his theory ObamaCare could send the financial markets reeling or “topple the stock market,” as Kudlow described it.

Add this to his long string of reliable fades...

 

[shortie]

Quote from turkeyneck:

Add this to his long string of reliable fades...

maybe he would have been right in a different type of market. nowadays everything keeps going up no matter what the news.

we did get a knee-jerk reaction on Mon. i thought we could have a couple of down days, not a couple of minutes out that bill passage.

 

[shortie]

dollar normalized SPX still can't break new high. i am sure the headlines won't mention this fact.

 

[shortie]

ATR contraction suggests a major move. notice that the current ATR level (similar to may-2007) is actually lower than oct-2007 top level.

Quote from efficiency:

Considering the Spider ETF as a proxy for the S&P 500, as of March 18th, the 20 day average true range (ATR) is the lowest, or shall we say the tightest since May 23, 2007. Nearly a third of a decade.

Expect a forthcoming move kiddies.

Direction? Remains to be seen, but given an over-bought market from a variety of advance/decline indicators and 52 week high/low oscillators, as well as prices extended from basic moving averages, draw your own conclusion.

Options expire and in-the-money calls assigned to new owners assuming fresh risk.

Might need a catalyst. Attack on Iran would be one (giving us THREE fronts). Another bail out, a prominent BK, or a state bellying up would also serve a catalytic (not to be confused with platinum) purpose. Ahh, let's just call it the Ides of March.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2772750#post2772750



to the above i will add:

VIX hit 16.08 around oct-2007 top.

VIX hit 16.17 today - probably means nothing, especially since it still has 0.09 to go to match 2007 level

 

[turkeyneck]

Quote from shortie:

Cramer has some valid points here:

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2010/20100319055725.aspx
As CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer predicted – if it passes, get ready to see a sell-off on Wall Street. Cramer appeared on CNBC’s March 18 “The Kudlow Report,” with his former broadcast partner Larry Kudlow. Kudlow asked Cramer to elaborate on his theory ObamaCare could send the financial markets reeling or “topple the stock market,” as Kudlow described it.

He's just turned bullish. What a moron.

 

[shortie]

curious gap-downs in SPY:$USD.

to my biased eye the charts start looking more and more like Jan-11 thru Jan-20 2010 charts. and you know what happened after Jan-20: boom! and months of gains gone within days

look at some of the gap-downs around the previous top and right now (one needs to look in SPY:$USB coordinates, the dollar masks some of those gaps in the naked SPY):

Jan-12, Jan-18, Jan-20

Mar-15, Mar-18, Mar-24

similarly, VIX has started to pick up as in the previous gappy period.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

riskfreetrading issued a sell signal in his blog:
http://financialtraders.blogspot.com/

some excerpts:
"Three days ago (in previous post) we posted on this blog that this blog's prediction-forecasting models issued a warning that qqqq powershaes etf stock was entering a sellers zone between 46.84 and 1% above. The upper level of the zone is then around 47.30ish level.

It is now 3:01PM on March 12, and the QQQQ EFT stock is trading at 47.40. Models just issued a confirmation signal, which essentially tells us that all longs should be taken off, and that we should start building short entries on QQQQ powershares etf stock.

If this prediction turns out to be right, it would mean that the open of today at 47.50 was an exhaustion gap set up for late bulls and for the surrender of the last of the losing bears.

....

Conclusions for today: 1) QQQQs bounced from 47.25 and stopped right right at 47.40. Market is still open. We would expect it to close few cents around 47.35.

2) Monday the buyers and sellers should meet each other, and decide on the market.

3) The close price most likely will be below 47.50, which is a strong vote in favor of a down move this coming week.
..."

his call should be good for a several % drop. he suggests that this Mon will be critical.

Riskfreetrading issued another top call on Mar-24:

"Our proprietary stock market models issued the following numbers as estimates of the top prices for the current bull legs:

NASDAQ:QQQQ: $48.77
NYSE:SPY: $118.50
NYSE: DIA: $109.22

The market does not have to reach these prices to start a retreat. Furthermore, these prices are within 1% above the closing prices of these EFT stocks for the end of the March 23 trading session. If the predicted price levels are accurate, a retreat of the market would be around the corner, since a few days volatility is typically more than 1%."

 

[shortie]

right now it seems impossible, but the gap around SPY 112.5 will get filled eventually. i know i sound pretty insane since it is -5% from the current level!

yet, look at Dec gap ~110: the market kept climbing up up up for a month and every headline in every newspaper said we can only go higher. BUT when the drop started it took only 3 days to fill the gap and MORE!!!

 

[shortie]

wishful thinking but if we go down today after the good news, this could be the sign...

spy 117.30

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

wishful thinking but if we go down today after the good news, this could be the sign...

spy 117.30

increadible!!! a down day after so much upside! I had no idea...