positioned when adbe numbers come out

H

heilbronner

IMHO adbe is priced very expansive at the moment considering its historical P/E. During the great bubble adbe's P/E was even lower.

Adbe is rather up than down at the moment and numbers are coming out beginning of september. IMHO there isn't much space for any disappointment at current levels.

So I just bought some cheap puts on adbe, very small position, just for fun.
 
My 35 calls are 50% in the plus at the moment and adbe numbers are coming out afterhours.

Shall I take 50% gain or shall I keep to through numbers? I didn't expect to make money even before numbers are coming out. In case numbers are OK, probably all gains will be gone.
 
I don't really follow adbe at all, and have no idea (but who really does) where the stock is going, just keep in mind that the 35 puts you own (im assuming there SEP) which are trading about 75-90 cents will be trading 60-75 tommorow if the earnings come out in line with expectations due to the lowered volatility. Accept my apology if I'm stating the obvious, but after the news comes out volatility generally gets hammered about 30 minutes into the trading day following earnings.

Vega:D
 
Are you able to trade after hours? If so, you can hedge your position with stock if earnings beat...if they miss, you can take the ride down with your puts. Good luck.

Volume
 
Well, mulling over the chart, I would say that until today the stock was being priced with the expectation of meet or beat. If they miss, I would say it's very likely to get a real kick in the pants to the downside, if they meet I would say it drifts down slowly (not the best situation if you losing value over time on puts), and if they beat, I would say it drifts slowly up and contends with resistance back and forth for awhile. I would say, based on that analysis, that you are in a favorable situation as far as path of least resistance, however earnings is a dangerous time indeed to be playing these games with any sort of size, but atleast your risk is limited! :) My personal credo is to take 1/4 - 1/2 the meat off the plate before letting the wolf-pack through the door, who know's if they've eaten recently or not!

Goodluck!

-TD80

-- To win alot, you must be willing to lose a little!
-- To win big, you must be able to lose alot!
 
I sold half of puts with a gain before earnings. Will get out of the rest tomorrow, with some losses. Could well be that I get out with a profit on the whole position, we'll see.

Apart, I was doing some trading afterours in adbe stock. Although I was short I made some profits!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top