Position sizing

[onelot]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

For any newbies here, the premise of this is wrong. If your account value is 100k, you would not commit the full 100k to this one trade/idea. The maximum that you would commit is 10k. The stop would then be at $80 per share. Certainly by the time the stock lost $20 dollars per share , you would be able to admit that the trade was wrong and get out. Secondly, it makes no sense to trade an instrument that is illiquid. In summary, the premise of this violates other rules before we even get to the 2 percent rule. Just getting into this instrument is the beginning of the road to disaster and can be classified as gambling. The 2 percent rule is and always will be the rule that must be followed to the letter.

Ahhh.. there are other rules before the 2% rule. Didn't know that. Gee, that's starting to sound like some context.

Amazing, people really like to trip out on the whole teacher/newbie thing. Been nice to have had an actual discussion on this. It's a good topic. Thanks Mike, for your contribution.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

The bottom line here is fairly easy to see for any who are perusing. It is a discussion about whether or not to risk a lot or risk a little. The most recent post in response to the 2 percent rule is tantamount to an admission that the argument against the 2 percent rule is indefensible. There was no substance to the post, rather there was the beginning of personal attack which I do not engage in ever. Would you rather risk a large percentage or risk a small percentage. It's fairly clear. For those who choose the latter, you will have a much better chance of being successful in this business. Thank you all for your time.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Additional note here: Anyone wanting to discuss the 2 percent rule or obtain clarification etc., please feel free to post your question/comment here or send me a private message. Glad to help!!

 

[HolyGrail]

Quote from onelot:

Hehe. I didn't answer the question because the premise of the question is illogical. Businesses can be cash based, and it's not necessarily a bad investment to invest in a company that is highly leveraged. I assumed you were being facetious, apparently not. Good luck to you holy.

The premise is purely logical. What is good for one has to be good for the other. I'm glad that you said "It's not necessarily a bad investment to invest in a company that is highly leveraged". Of course it's not. I never made that claim. I will say it is a high risk, high reward opportunity. Not everyone's cup of tea. Your claim was if you weren't highly leveraged you would go out of business in this highly competitve world.

So let's sum it up. You believe trading like business have opportunity costs. If you don't trade highly leveraged or are not running a business that is highly leveraged you will most likely go broke due to opportunity costs and fierce competition. On the other hand, I think the complete opposite is true. A highly leveraged business is operating on shoestring. When the floor drops from underneath its feet they are gone. A low-leveraged business can withstand much more downside for a longer period of time albeit at the expense of potential growth for the guaranteed woulda, coulda, shoulda opportunity costs.

In addition, if you don't day trade for a living then you must listen carefully to those that are rude and arrogant, because after all they make their living from trading and are worthy of everyones respect. I sure hope I didn't miss anything.

 

[mschey]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

The bottom line here is fairly easy to see for any who are perusing. It is a discussion about whether or not to risk a lot or risk a little. The most recent post in response to the 2 percent rule is tantamount to an admission that the argument against the 2 percent rule is indefensible. There was no substance to the post, rather there was the beginning of personal attack which I do not engage in ever. Would you rather risk a large percentage or risk a small percentage. It's fairly clear. For those who choose the latter, you will have a much better chance of being successful in this business. Thank you all for your time.

You are giving some bad advice...very bad advice on risk management.

The 2% net rule is a bunch of crap....Who the hell trades based upon there net worth. You're going to tell me your wife is going to let you tap into your emergency savings when shit hits the fan to cover margin calls? Mine won't. She keeps 50k plus in an emergency fund that's only for that, to take care of us should I screw things up. If you plan to use that money to cover trades you are really going to be in a world of hurt.

What about this, I own realestate, a million bucks worth. Lot's of equity, I am able to tap that equity through Helocs, so it really is liquid, should I trade 2% of that too? Answer....NO!

Once you've traded a while, and put some profits on the board, you'll see that when shit hits the fan in the market, all correlations go to one. So the 10 trades you have on with your 100k account, risking 2k on each...will amount to a 20% loss for you. You are taking risk...significant risk! Why 2%, why not 3% and 7 trades, or 4% and 5 trades?

The truth is, this is just your preference. You have no hard data to back your assertions up, you have nothing to support your case which makes your entire MM thesis...indefensible.

 

[mschey]

Quote from HolyGrail:


So let's sum it up. You believe trading like business have opportunity costs. If you don't trade highly leveraged or are not running a business that is highly leveraged you will most likely go broke due to opportunity costs and fierce competition. On the other hand, I think the complete opposite is true. A highly leveraged business is operating on shoestring. When the floor drops from underneath its feet they are gone. A low-leveraged business can withstand much more downside for a longer period of time albeit at the expense of potential growth for the guaranteed woulda, coulda, shoulda opportunity costs.

Here's the point you are missing....with trading, one can leverage and deleverage damn near instantaneously. I can choose the time to leverage the balance sheet to take care of short term opportunities, in business, you don't have the same flexibility. As an experienced, profitable trader, the amount of capital that is available to me is on the order of 100 times or more... Now that is true power. Try getting access to that kind of capital at your bank!

 

[taowave]

Quote from onelot:

Trading is "perhaps complex"? "Indefensible", eh? Ok, how about this one:

You decide to take a long position in a stock that is uptrending. Your account value is 100k, the stock price is $100. Your stop is .20. With B1S2's indefensible 2% rule, that leaves you with a cool 1k share position. This is a very illiquid and volatile stock. Average trade size is 1-200 shares. The market quickly gets to your stop and spreads .40, turning your 2% stop into a 4% stop. You market out and move the stock another .05 - .1 adding another 1%. Bringing your total realized loss to -5%.

Was this a wise position sizing strategy? Did you underestimate other factors besides your account value, like say: the actual market you're trading. Does it need to be discussed in a context? Me thinks so. So please spare the trading cliches.

STOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let me interrupt this dick swinging contest for a moment before you guys cross swords....

The account is 100K
.20 is your stop..I assume thats 20 cents,or a 99.80 stop
Risk is 2% of capital = $2000

Risk/stop=$2000/.20 or 10,000 shares

Am I correct that you guys are trading 10,000 shares(1,000,000 notional),on 10-1 margin??

And where did the other poster come up with an $80 stop??

Feel free to cross swords

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Another point to make to readers of the thread --and I am very proud of this-- In nearly 26 years of trading, I have never had a margin call. They are something that you definitely want to avoid and I haven't even been close. One thing to remember here is that I trade only futures and am not married. I believe a previous poster mentioned something about being married.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from taowave:


And where did the other poster come up with an $80 stop??

$80 would be a $20 dollar stop on 100 shares of a $100 stock. 100 shares would be 10k of the 100k. This would be the maximum prudent loss of $2000 or 2%.

 

[mschey]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Another point to make to readers of the thread --and I am very proud of this-- In nearly 26 years of trading, I have never had a margin call. They are something that you definitely want to avoid and I haven't even been close. One thing to remember here is that I trade only futures and am not married. I believe a previous poster mentioned something about being married.

That's what I thought...just SPIN...no substance at all. Are you able to defend your position on the 2% net rule....or.; and given that you have over 2600 posts in less than a year, are you just full of hot air!