Portfolios (S&P500, Nasdaq100, DAX, US Stocks)

[Duarte]

Before I talk about my portfolios, I will talk about my goals.

My first goal is to try to respond as best as possible to what the market is doing and act appropriately. I am talking about trend-following discipline.

When i expect the market will go up, my market posture is bullish. That means, i´m buying stocks and Exchange TradedFunds (ETFs). My market posture remains bullish until my "stop" is reached.

When i expect the market will go down,my market posture is bearish. That means, i´m buying inverse Exchange TradedFunds (ETFs). My market posture remains bearish until my "stop" is reached.

When i don't expect anything, my market posture is neutral. That means, i´m not buying.

My second goal is to get better knowledge about some ETFs that i usually don´t trade. (For example: EXS1, DXSN,UPRO, SPXU, TQQQ, SQQQ)

My third goal is to explain in simple terms the reasons for my decisions.

 

[Duarte]

I determine my market posture through a careful analysis of the charts. I observe the market direction - up, down or sideways – with the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index, Dow Jones index, MSCI ACWI index, Dax index or other leader index where the stock acts. Acting in concert with the market direction, i increase my odds of success.

 

[Duarte]

I pick stocks to buy based on a careful analysis of the historical charts. I also consider other factors, such as net cash from operating activities, volume and beta.

 

[Duarte]

I'm going to have 8 independent portfolios, of which the first 7 are long/short trend-following with ETFs of different leverage, and the eighth, is a long trend-following with US stocks. Plus: I have separate stop-loss limits for each ETF/stock, which is influenced by portfolio volatility/leverage and my perception of trend strength and risk.

Portfolio 1: 1x DAX ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)
... uses ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF or DB X-TRACKERS SHORTDAX (DXSN) ETF

Portfolio 2: 1x S&P 500 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)
... uses S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF or ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH) ETF

Portfolio 3: 2x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)
... uses ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short S&P500 (SDS) ETF

Portfolio 4: 3x S&P 500 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)
... uses ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) ETF

Portfolio 5: 1x Nasdaq 100 ETF Portfolio (100% of the benchmark's daily performance)
... uses ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF or ProShares Short QQQ Fund (PSQ) ETF

Portfolio 6: 2x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (200% of the benchmark's daily performance)
... uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF or ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF


Portfolio 7: 3x Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF Portfolio (300% of the benchmark's daily performance)

... uses ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF or ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) ETF

Portfolio 8: US Stock Portfolio
... is composed by 5 US stocks.

 

[Duarte]

I consider 5 USD or 5 EUR per buy and sell order.

Broker example http://www.interactivebrokers.com

The monetary value of each position is 4000 USD or 3200 EUR.





Rule:

All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this " thread " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

 

[Duarte]

Quote from Duarte:
Nasdaq 100 Leveraged 200 ETF Portfolio uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF and ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QLD) ETF

Error: There is a duplicate symbol.

Nasdaq 100 Leveraged 200 ETF Portfolio uses ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF and ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID) ETF

 

[Duarte]

Emergency stop

The emergency stop that I use is activated if the price moves downwards too far.
Because of the high volatility of the US Stocks and 300% leveraged ETFs, the stop is placed farther away from the current price, implies that the portfolios that use these assets have higher risk.
When my uncertainty is higher or plan to sell, the stop is closer to the current price.

 

[Duarte]

The months of September and October are statistically the two worst months of the year for the market but there are no signs that the overall market will decline, but I also have doubts that it will continue to rise.

 

[Duarte]

August 30, 2012

Active investment managers have upped their exposure to the stock market to the highest level in over a year. There is a lot of group-think among the managers as well, with most of them skewed clearly to the long side.

 

[Duarte]

The overall market direction is up since the beginning of June.
The overall market fall a few days but now went back up and breakout has happened.
The breakout suggests that the market direction continues upward.
I'm still afraid to be buying in the worst month for the markets, but I also don´t want that the market run away without me. My market posture is bullish.