portfolia curve also observes technical analysis
- Thread starter trend2009
- Start date
That's called a spurious correlation. There is no possible causative mechanism that links round numbers of your capital to drawdowns.
My own equity curve displays some very weak serial correlation, and reversal of large returns, but these are not predictive enough to be useful for anything. I tried various ways of fitting leverage based on this and it was always worse than being fully levered all the time.
My own equity curve displays some very weak serial correlation, and reversal of large returns, but these are not predictive enough to be useful for anything. I tried various ways of fitting leverage based on this and it was always worse than being fully levered all the time.
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Sounds like a small sample, Trender2009;
there for, sounds like it means nothing. But as far as an account profit trend; cutting back when one fails to reach a round number /round number profit, can help a lot.
Good logical reason for that- usually its a trend change/loss.
PS; the words ''every time, prediction'' are almost ALWAYS wrong/inaccurate in trading
Some times a trend can stall @ about 2 weeks or 2 months,, 200 days ;
but NEVER would that be every time=markets dont work that way.....................................................................................................
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Want the truth or a polite answer?? 40% loss in 30 minutes is trading to big; unless the main goal is thrills-= in that case= risk 100% in 30 minutes[Sarcasm -dont try this @ home!!]
Wasn't planned, didn't want to lose 10k+ account, kinda dug in and kept averaging down and didn't get a pull back in time, nearly twice I think it was, but then the hammer dropped.
Live, Learn, Repeat.......................
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That can be a good thing, blowing up an account;
if done early in life+ one learns something from it= i did.LOL-LOL
.Very useful comment. I would also add there is a kind of confirmation bias taking place when you try to evaluate this.
LOL. I am 100% certain, that oftentimes the market ignored everyone else in the world, knew my position, and decided to direct its entire focus on me, to fuck with. I am 100% certain it may now be after you. Try dancing around the room chanting in a trance, while holding a chicken with its head cut off, and that usually calms the spirits.