poorloser's journal and journey (to success?)

[Tradex]

I am a software engineer

Traders who are also computer programmers are very rare, so this is a BIG plus for you!

Your computer programming skills will allow you to code and test your trading ideas quickly, and even put then on autopilot, meaning your program will buy and sell for you automatically, even if you are sound asleep.

 

[hilmy83]

Intro

I am a software engineer who has always been pretty fascinated by the markets and wanted to be involved. I trade very inconsistently both in how often I trade, and how I trade. My focus jumps around between different strategies and theories which all tend to be quite interesting, have strong supporters (and detractors), and promise success.

My goal here is to document what I am looking at and doing, hopefully get some advice, and make some progress toward becoming more consistent and profitable. Ultimately I would like to find an edge, build a strategy around it, and learn to follow it with discipline.

If I'm being an idiot, feel free to let me know, after all this is anonymous haha.

-- poorloser

Hello fellow engineer. I'm a biomedical engineer by training that currently works in the aerospace/defense industry. Being an engineer means you can work anywhere.

Trading wise, I suggest you pick a strategy that is 100% mechanical. Break each component and track how each affects the bottom line. Good effin luck ...

 

[Tradex]

Trading wise, I suggest you pick a strategy that is 100% mechanical.

Excellent comment, mechanical strategies are the only one you can seriously backtest.

 

[Turveyd]

Definitely a good suggestion. Is it even possible to change your username on ET? Tempted to keep it if only for the irony if I do manage to achieve success.

Show's some humility leave it be, it's only a user name.

I'm a poor loser to LOL

 

[poorloser]

Add an additional T&S stream that filters on large size (ie 100 contracts). It’ll clarify zones where larger players are participating.

I'll check that out. I do have a >= 10 contracts filter but that was mainly to try to slow things down a bit so I could actually see what was going on.

Your computer programming skills will allow you to code and test your trading ideas quickly, and even put then on autopilot, meaning your program will buy and sell for you automatically, even if you are sound asleep.

That's the idea! Although I do not currently know python, which seems to be the language with most of the trading/backtesting libraries built around it. I suppose it is also possible to just build a backtester and whatever other tools are required.

Trading wise, I suggest you pick a strategy that is 100% mechanical. Break each component and track how each affects the bottom line. Good effin luck ...

Good advice. I think that my decision-making process right now is rather 'squishy' so that is something I would need to address in order to have some sort of system that could be fully coded.

Excellent comment, mechanical strategies are the only one you can seriously backtest.

I am also somewhat intrigued by the idea of a human-algo 'team'. I read that this is done in some chess tournaments, and I have read of some on here and on fintwit who basically have an algo that predicts range, pivots, direction, or something else, and the actual entries are discretionary. So, backtestable to a point, but not to the point of an actual PnL. Just something that I am turning over in my mind.

Show's some humility leave it be, it's only a user name.

I'm a poor loser to LOL

I mean, honestly, I'll probably just keep it. I'm sure you're at least a little bit ahead of me after 10k+ posts here...

 

[Turveyd]

More of a poor loser then yes lol

 

[formikatrading]

Aside from your username, I appreciate your efforts and journey. I have never read Mind Over Markets. Your post and your comments intrigued me enough to order it. I really liked what you said about thinking in terms of "this is an area where something is likely to happen." Sometimes I have looked too much for certainty rather than probability.

 

[volpri]

Aside from your username, I appreciate your efforts and journey. I have never read Mind Over Markets. Your post and your comments intrigued me enough to order it. I really liked what you said about thinking in terms of "this is an area where something is likely to happen." Sometimes I have looked too much for certainty rather than probability.

Just remember in your search for high probability trades the reward will generally be smaller because by virtue of waiting for the high probability setup that has confirmation. By then much of the move has already happened hence less reward left to capture. But on the positive side high probability trade usually means the trade has a better chance of having successful outcome. It may have large or small risk depending on the context in which the setup is found. Bottom line just don’t expect big reward from high probability trades except in certain circumstances such as strong BO’s.

 

[poorloser]

Aside from your username, I appreciate your efforts and journey. I have never read Mind Over Markets. Your post and your comments intrigued me enough to order it. I really liked what you said about thinking in terms of "this is an area where something is likely to happen." Sometimes I have looked too much for certainty rather than probability.

Well, it appears I can change my username without making a new account. I just need to think of something new. I think that at the very least, Mind Over Markets will give you some food for thought.

Just remember in your search for high probability trades the reward will generally be smaller because by virtue of waiting for the high probability setup that has confirmation. By then much of the move has already happened hence less reward left to capture. But on the positive side high probability trade usually means the trade has a better chance of having successful outcome. It may have large or small risk depending on the context in which the setup is found. Bottom line just don’t expect big reward from high probability trades except in certain circumstances such as strong BO’s.

I have thought about this. I think that this is very closely related to discussions on risk/money management. Being early to a move with tighter risk (and higher risk of failure) is something that I think is more appealing. Figuring out that appropriate risk level is the tricky part. Is it better to be stopped out three times with small loss and on the fourth hit the big upside? A statistical analyis/backtest can probably answer that.

 

[old coot]

Don't use "mind over markets!!"
I've seen a housepainter speak about fear of heights in a speech titled "Mind over ladder" and a gardener espousing "Mind over 'Mater" a golfer who felt it was important for him to, at least once in every conversation, bring up "mind over mashie" A otherwise nice young lady who, for some reason, lost her mind one morning while making pancakes,yammering about "mind over batter" a haberdasher ridiculed with "mind over hatter" and on and on. It's only cutesy the first time, and tedious the second.