Bro, just model the thing out to Oct15.
Finally got some of the back-end code working for my B-S tool. Using google apps scripts and a google sheet. Beats visual basic, but if I add any more complexity, it's better to use a real language.
First thing I did was sample IV for a variety of expirations and deltas. Then I fit a plane to the IV(DTE,delta) picks (see the heat map). Dunno if this kind of thing is done, but I needed a mechanism to supply B-S with a realistic IV as DTE & delta change. It has been a real eye-opener to me just how much IV varies within a given underlying's options.
I simply modeled the diagonal that I have on now. Long the 90 DTE, 70 delta SPY call, short the 27 DTE, 42 delta call. So the spread is net 28 delta. When I simulate a steady decline (-0.1%/day) in the underlying, something interesting happens. The P&L curve stays pretty flat until net delta hits ~45. This is about where I would roll the short call anyway.
I do note that the net gamma flips from negative to positive, about when things go to crap. So I guess that's some more homework.
I'm still unable to read greater significance in the greeks, but at least I have pictures to stare at. Maybe some insight will set in via osmosis.
