Polling 2024

2024 Election Outcome

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UsualName said:
This race turned on a dime. We’ll see if Trump get up. The cat now chases the dog.
More...

Trump, MAGA, Racists, Misogynists, and Couch Lovers are in a panic. The same here at Elitetrader.com because we see certain people creating multiple threads in a very short duration attacking the Harris/Walz ticket and they're using the themes from the above to do so...

The above is a losing strategy. It's why the Trump/Vance campaign is now struggling because they've been using the above strategy to attack Harris/Walz ticket. ​

As a Republican, I've never attended a DNC but have only missed three RNC as a civilian (not counting the two when I was in the military)...2016 (due to hospitalization/coma), 2020 (Trump/Pandemic), and 2024 (Trump).

It looks like my next RNC will be in 2028 if our GOP has kicked Trump and MAGA to the curb....good riddance.

Today, we now know Trump is a convicted felon 34x (more pending felonies to come) and we know how he won in 2016 by paying off a porn star with business funds to keep her mouth shut about their sexual affair (one-nighter) to prevent negative news from impacting the voters in the 2016 November election.

Trump is in a nightmare since Biden switched to Harris because Trump would now be running against a former Prosecutor, a Woman who is Black and Indian.

Seriously, he must be constipated every night now and getting more Orange, especially as we near his September 18th sentencing date.

wrbtrader
 
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Nebraska turning blue? Wow.

Harris leads Trump in new Nebraska 2nd District poll
Most recent local Biden-Trump polling had shown Trump narrowly leading or slightly behind
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/20/harris-leads-trump-in-new-nebraska-2nd-district-poll/

OMAHA — A new poll in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District shows Vice President Kamala Harris has reinvigorated local Democrats, infusing them with renewed hope.

The survey by conservative pollster Remington Research Group taken Aug. 14-17 indicates that Harris leads former President Donald Trump in the district 50%-42%, with a 3.8% margin of error.

The poll indicated minimal support for third-party candidates, including 2% support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 1% for Cornel West and less support for Jill Stein and Chase Oliver.

The Harris campaign had no immediate comment.

Thousands of Nebraska Democrats gathered Saturday to hear Harris’ running mate, Nebraska native and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, speak, just before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Walz said that Trump and his running mate, Ohio U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, don’t know Nebraska and that Nebraskans want a campaign focused on the future and not the past. Vance is visiting Omaha on Wednesday for a fundraiser.

Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said she had seen at least one other poll recently that indicated Harris was leading outside of the margin of error. Kleeb said the new energy is evident in upticks in fundraising, volunteers and local interest in the campaign.

“It’s always obviously a good feeling when polls match what you’re seeing with your own eyes,” Kleeb said from the convention in Chicago. “There’s no question that CD2 is more in line with the values and vision of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. The poll numbers are definitely tracking what we’re seeing on the ground.”

Tracks recent results
The survey’s 8-percentage-point gap at the top resembles the recent voting record of the swing district, including the 52%-46% 2nd District win for President Joe Biden in 2020.

But it is the widest gap in five 2nd District presidential polls the Examiner has reviewed during the 2024 cycle. Most showed Trump narrowly leading or narrowly trailing Biden.

Of them, this is the first to name Harris since she replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket and reset the race, leaving it closer to a tossup nationally.

Still, the poll of 656 likely 2nd District voters identified some differences between the electorate and the candidates on issues that the pollster said might help Trump close the gap.

Chief among them is the issue of immigration, where 2nd District voters narrowly sided with Trump over Harris. Another potential issue advantage for Trump was inflation.

Voters in the 2nd District appeared to give Harris higher marks on the economy, led by Douglas County. Suburban Sarpy County and rural Saunders County favored Trump on the issue.

(More at above url)
 
North Carolina moving into Harris' column.

Kamala Harris Ahead of Donald Trump in North Carolina—538 Polling Aggregate
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polls-north-carolina-1943402

Kamala Harris has overtaken former President Donald Trump in North Carolina for the first time, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows that Harris is now marginally ahead of Trump in the key swing state, on 45.8 percent to the former president's 45.4 percent, after having overtaken him with a 0.2 point lead on Thursday.

Trump had previously been narrowly leading Harris in North Carolina, which voted Republican in the last three presidential elections.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Before Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign on July 21, Trump was leading the president in every poll in the state by between 2 points and 12 points.

However, the lead began to fade when Harris took Biden's place atop the Democratic ticket. The vice president first saw a lead in North Carolina polls in a poll conducted between July 26 and August 2 by The Cook Political Report, which gave her a 2-point lead over Trump among likely voters when third party candidates were included.

National polling listed on the FiveThirtyEight website also shows Harris maintaining a stable lead over Trump from July 26.

Since then, polls in North Carolina have shown Trump with only a lead of between 1 point to 4 points, while other polls have shown the two candidates neck and neck in the state, or Harris in the lead.

The two most recent polls conducted in the state, conducted by Focaldata and SurveyUSA between August 6 and August 21, have shown Harris in the lead by between 1 point and 4 points.

Despite its history of voting for the Republican, North Carolina is considered a swing state because of its close margins and its history of electing Democratic governors. Seven of the last eight gubernatorial races have gone blue in the state.

Harris is currently leading in six of seven key battleground states, according to the FiveThirtyEight poll tracker. The only swing state she is not currently leading in is Georgia, where Trump leads her by 0.5 points, with 46.6 percent to her 46.1 percent. In 2020, Biden won Georgia by a narrow margin of 0.2 percent, flipping the state blue for the first time since 1992.

Meanwhile, in the other six swing states, Harris is leading Trump in the aggregate. Her biggest lead is in Wisconsin, where Trump is trailing her by 3.8 points, with 44.1 percent to her 47.9 percent. Her lead is narrowest in North Carolina.

Harris' lead in the swing states represents a significant change in the Democrats' prospects in the polls after FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker previously showed Trump leading Biden in 6 of the 7 key battleground states.

However, not all polls in the battleground states have been positive for Harris. Since the Harris campaign launched, polls in the seven swing states have shown some volatility with different polling showing each candidate with leads.

A recent poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies between August 12 and August 15 showed Harris leading Trump by between 2 points and 4 points in two swing states—Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump and Harris were tied at 46 percent, while in the four other swing states, Trump was leading Harris by between 1 point and 3 points.

Meanwhile, a poll released on Tuesday by Navigator Research showed Harris without the lead in any of the swing states, with the two candidates tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while she was behind in Arizona and Pennsylvania. The poll did not include Georgia or Nevada.

A YouGov/CBS poll from August 2 showed neither Trump nor Harris had a significant lead in any of the battleground states, with the two candidates in an overall deadlock.

Success in the swing states is pivotal to winning the election. Harris leads in a number of national poll aggregators, but could win the popular vote and lose the election if the key states back Trump.
 
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