I dunno
looks like a new low is closer and more probable
looks like a new low is closer and more probable
Poll: Which First, New Low or New High
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
BUY BUY BUY. the ultimate bull has turned bearish. This message is equal to 2 50bp fed cuts in market implication.
game over. I call 1600 end of yr.
Don't fight the Fed, the Treasury, and a Senator who is chairman of the banking committee and is in the pockets of the CT hedge funds. To be short going in to tomorrow after this afternoon s snapper and the potential for a very positive statement from anyone of of those three above tomorrow is just asking to get hurt. Has the Fed's well timed goose of Friday morning already been forgotten. If anyone can fix the mess the credit markets are in it is those guys (have you forgotten that Dodd was already talking bailout when the subprime problem was supposed to be contained?). Can they really afford for the world to lose faith in the US credit markets and instruments? Think of the implications. They will do what they have to to restore faith and order in the credit markets, and fast as this uncertainly is very dangerous the longer it persists.
Short term we keep moving up though I don't know about new highs. I'm looking for at least 13400, 1475, and 130 on the EEM.
Short term we keep moving up though I don't know about new highs. I'm looking for at least 13400, 1475, and 130 on the EEM.
My target for this bull - it may not necessarily happen this year, of course - is 1660 on the S&P.
I think we're on the way now. Way too much bearishness.
Also, the odds are far higher that something breaks over in Europe, where Trichet is in the uncomfortable position of being thought even more of a rookie than Bernanke, having basically come out and said he was raising rates on Aug 2. So now if he doesn't he looks like a fool, but if he does he threatens to make the situation worse for his continent.
Fool or idiot, which will he turn out to be? Of course, I think he's both, but that's just me.
I think we're on the way now. Way too much bearishness.
Also, the odds are far higher that something breaks over in Europe, where Trichet is in the uncomfortable position of being thought even more of a rookie than Bernanke, having basically come out and said he was raising rates on Aug 2. So now if he doesn't he looks like a fool, but if he does he threatens to make the situation worse for his continent.
Fool or idiot, which will he turn out to be? Of course, I think he's both, but that's just me.
Good points. The dot.com money was 'hot' money that went immediately looking for fresh action and found it in various areas including RE and commodities. The hot money has cooled off and is now being slowly extracted from the various speculative markets and socked away in static instruments because it has nowhere else to go. Hence, lack of liquidity (at least, that's one of the contributing factors).
Re the FED cut: It's like the poor saps holding some bogus speculative pump-and-dump waiting for the imminent "news" so that they can bail out. Sell on news; sell on rate cut.
In any case, It's distinctly possible that it may take more than rate cuts to make things right again.
BUT: if a rate-cut rally were to last more than a few days on high and steady volume, the hundreds of billions recently stashed under 30 million mattresses may come back into play and chip away the ceiling; then we'd see some action. But this is a long shot imho.
great points. all while the goings-on in the 90 day bill yesterday certainly didn't bode well for economic fundamentals (on the surface), it is very bullish how the markets performed in the face of that.
It is right that bernanke has shown he wants to participate and be a market savior.
whether that ends up being successful, who knows.
did you see stocktrad3r turned bearish?
All targets were hit (aday later than expected) though I didn't participate fully (sold YM at 13290 from 12736 and EEM 127.80 from 112.53, no position in ES). Sold GS (+3.08) on close and initiated small EEM short (also holding EEM and QQQQ puts). I may be early but the 1st week of Sept is going to be a real test for the market and I think we start seeing some selling next week by those who want to stay out of the potential fray.