Poll: What comes next: $2750 SP500 or $3200 SP500?
- Thread starter orbit23
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2750!
If for some odd reason the fed juices the market along with worldwide stimulus and coronavirus cases drop off then 3200 but if now and more quarantining occurs across the globe expect not only 2750 but a drop to 2000!!!! And we all know what happens with big round numbers if 2000 doesnt hold then oh welllllll
If for some odd reason the fed juices the market along with worldwide stimulus and coronavirus cases drop off then 3200 but if now and more quarantining occurs across the globe expect not only 2750 but a drop to 2000!!!! And we all know what happens with big round numbers if 2000 doesnt hold then oh welllllll
I don't know which mark the SP500 will hit first.
But if I were to guess, I think the severity of this virus is way overblown.
The ratio of people who are dying from this is probably way over-estimated. At this point, there are probably tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people (just in the US) who were/are infected by this. The current figure of ~400 infections (US) is almost surely just the tip of the iceberg, in terms of number of infections. There's a huge selection-bias in testing -- where only the most severe cases are probably being tested for covid19.
That said, just in-case I'm wrong... I did stock up on some extra supplies at home
The biggest impact, is almost certainly just the perception of this, and how THAT might affect the GDP in the next couple quarters...
But if I were to guess, I think the severity of this virus is way overblown.
The ratio of people who are dying from this is probably way over-estimated. At this point, there are probably tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people (just in the US) who were/are infected by this. The current figure of ~400 infections (US) is almost surely just the tip of the iceberg, in terms of number of infections. There's a huge selection-bias in testing -- where only the most severe cases are probably being tested for covid19.
That said, just in-case I'm wrong... I did stock up on some extra supplies at home
The biggest impact, is almost certainly just the perception of this, and how THAT might affect the GDP in the next couple quarters...
Well after 7 trillion was wiped out of capital markets two weeks ago last week was a wait and see week — Inside doji bar. I’m not sure if the next catalyst will be positive or negative but all those that don’t believe that media dripping out story after story of quarantines was priced in before it became mind numbing daily news are going to likely lose their shirts. China has recovered and it remains Euro markets that continue to push the US indices lower. Thanks to banjo for pointing out a single market maker was getting squeezed on Friday resulting in the abnormal volatility level reached. My line in the sand remains last Sunday night globex open..
ET’s bearish sentiment is another clue.
ET’s bearish sentiment is another clue.
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That said, just in-case I'm wrong... I did stock up on some extra supplies at home
Good job.
Maybe things are overblown, but the real effects of this in the economy is already tangible.
At a minimum, the good news is that we got 50bps lower from the Fed. Market is expecting 25bps more in March meeting and another 25bps in April. Definitely, Fed will probably look at other stimulus if market keeps tanking. Once virus thing is a distant memory, equities look pretty damn attractive.
