I'm more sure Trump will lose in 2020.If he had won big in 2016 like Obama did in 08 I wouldn't be as confident because Trump could afford to lose some voters and still win.Winning by 78,000 votes Trump cant afford to lose any support that he had in 2016.Considering democrats enthusiasm will likely be higher in 2020 Trump will likely need more supporters in 2020 than he did in 2016.
I think Trump needs to have an average approval rating of around 48 on election day to win re election.
Gallup poll numbers prior to re election below .Obama and Bush 2 aren't included because its from 2003 but Obama and Bush were around 50 % in Nov of their re election wins.
2 months prior to his re election Bush 1 was at 38 and Carter at 37.Ford was at 45% approval six months months prior to his election.
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