Here’s how that compares historically with the previous 25 midterm
elections over the past century:
- The opposition party has lost Senate seats in just six of the past 25 midterms. On average, the opposition sees a gain of four seats. Republicans have currently lost one seat. (The GOP could ultimately gain one seat or even two if the final three races break for them in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, but Democrats appear well-situated to keep their majority.)
- In that same timespan, the opposition party on average has gained nearly 30 House seats — though the average since 1994 has only been 25. As things stand, Republicans have gained around a half-dozen seats, according to race calls from the Associated Press. (Pegging the precise number is difficult, with incomplete results, since the districts candidates were running in are quite different now, due to redistricting.) The opposition party has failed to gain double-digit House seats just seven times in the past 25 midterms.
- The opposition party on average has gained 4.5 governor’s seats. Republicans are currently down two, and if they have lost Oregon, their only remaining potential pickup is Nevada. This would be the first time since 1986 — and only the second time since 1934 — that the opposition party has had a net loss of governor’s seats.
- Only once in the past 100 years has the opposition party lost both Senate seats and governor’s mansions: 1934. Republicans could feasibly do that.
- The opposition party has gained state legislative chambers in every midterm election held since 2002, flipping an average of more than 12 chambers. Republicans have currently lost at least three chambers — both chambers in Michigan, and the Minnesota state Senate — and appear as though they’ll lose the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, as well.
REPUBLICANS WON
2022 House Elections
Republicans 222 Democrats 213
2022 Senate Elections
Republicans 20 Democrats 15
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