Poll: Just 36 percent say Mueller report clears Trump

Tony Stark

Tony Stark

March 29, 2019 - 10:21 AM EDT
Poll: Just 36 percent say Mueller report clears Trump

Just 36 percent of registered voters say the report submitted by special counsel Robert Mueller clears President Trump of any wrongdoing, according to an NPR–PBS poll released Friday.

Fifty-six percent say they think questions still exist about Trump, while 9 percent say they are unsure.

The poll showed broad support for the release of the full report, the culmination of Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, but showed a mixed response to questions about what Democrats should do next.



Seventy-five percent say Mueller's complete report should be made public, compared to 18 percent who say the four-page summary released by Attorney General William Barr is enough.

"People clearly want to see more about the report," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll for NPR and PBS. "They want it released publicly, are eager to see the principals — Mueller and Barr — testify, because they want to see how the sausage was made. They want to see how we got to this point."
 
Tony and his polls and predictions...

"Trump has to do much better than be tied or even a small lead in the polls to actually be ahead because of the huge democrat edge in the electoral college and large minority populations in swing states.Remember Obama only won by 4 points in the popular vote but won by 126 in the electoral college.Trump could be ahead by 4 points in the popular vote and RCP average but still and likely be down in the electoral college."

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-without-the-algo.301548/page-17#post-4326132
 
TJustice said:
Tony and his polls and predictions...

"Trump has to do much better than be tied or even a small lead in the polls to actually be ahead because of the huge democrat edge in the electoral college and large minority populations in swing states.Remember Obama only won by 4 points in the popular vote but won by 126 in the electoral college.Trump could be ahead by 4 points in the popular vote and RCP average but still and likely be down in the electoral college."

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-without-the-algo.301548/page-17#post-4326132
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"When Obama can't qualify for the ballot in a bunch of states - it will be Hillary vs Sarah Palin."-Birther jem aka Tjustice


"jem will then return home, grab a beer and watch as the the media explains this surprise Romney victory..."-jem aka TJustice
 
TJustice said:
Tony and his polls and predictions...
More...
Jem and his polls and predictions.


great post... Tsing.

and its why you have to unskew the polls.

Can you imagine Florida going D-9 when polls show Obama has lost 15% of the jewish vote?

Florida is going R plus 3 (at least) and Romney will get more Independents.-Birther jem aka Tjustice




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Great find.

In other words... if you unskew the polls - Obama has no chance in those states....

In fact if you unskew the polls.... in other words if you go with a close to even turnout in the swing states.... which is historically accurate for most of them, that is why they are swing states...

That Romney is now killing it with Independents... means Romney is now killing it.

Which is why the pollster is leaving."-Birther jem aka Tjustice


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My favorite.Romeny + 10


https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-299#post-3655484


"So if we unskew Rasmuessen to the 2010 template We have Romney plus 10.

Which is where JEM anlytics has the national race."-Birther jem aka Tjustice
 
TJustice said:
I notice you left out JEM's virtually prefect call regarding the turnout results in the Trump election...
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You/ Jem said you suspected Hillary would win and gave Trump a 25% chance of winning




https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-without-the-algo.301548/page-71#post-4350658



"I don't get how you guys could read what I written the last month about good polls and think that means I say Trump is leading. Even the good polls have it in the margin for error or hillary in the lead by a bit. On top of that I said it will therefore be all about the states elections and I have not looked at those polls much because I don't have the data.

So where the fuck are you guys getting off thinking I will be surprised by a hillary win and speculating what I will say. I suspect hillary is going to win unless dems don't show and a lot of people are going to vote for trump but were afraid to admit it.

I put that later scenario at about a 25% chance."
 
so on nov 7 2016 jem wrote... see below.

(for context nate silver published simulations that trump could win if he was within a few million votes... but nate was still overweighting garbage polls so he discounted that scenario to so some degree... jem realized that was the scenario to be considering because after using the algo... the election was really inside the margin of error. )


so jem called the election better than just about anyone in the world.


jem said:
its way too close to call. The algo was quite satisfied with the templates after the herding. So its looks like Hillary has a slight national lead overall by about 1 to 2 points after unskewing and averaging.

So its too close to call.

I find myself and the algo agreeing with Nate Silver's simulations lately.

Because most the national polls unskewed during the herding last week I now see Nate;s work as making sense. Instead of garbage in garbage out as it was before the herding... his work is now very "tradeable".



If you tell me who wins florida, colorado, and Pennsylvania... that is what I will be watching.
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and right before the lelection in 2012... jem wrote this...

jem said:
tony how many times do i have to correct your out of context misrepresentations. There was banter... but when it mattered... I nailed both elections. You saw above I was the most accurate person in the country in 2012 because I said Hillary had a 1 to 2 point lead in the national voted but that Nate Silvers work showing she could lose in that scenari was very "tradeable".

.

and he got 2008's template right as well.


Obama won by 7 in 2008. 53 to 46
Obama won by 4 in 2012.

here is what I said on ET on Nov. 5th --- in 2012 about polls and templates...


----
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-335

polls slanted greater to the Dems than the 2008 the template are leftist frauds... and they should be chastised. This will include the crazy predictions made by nate silver.

polls with the 2008 template are leftists, fools, or blind.
even axelrod said last night they will not do as well as 2008.

poll between 2010 and 2008 are professional... perhaps a little partisan as they get closer to 2008.

polls with 2010... are perhaps a bit partisan to the Rs but smart.


but IMO

polls should slanted more to the Is and the Rs because that is what the turnout on Tuesday will teach us.

all these pollsters... underweighted the Is."
More...
 
TJustice said:
so on nov 7 2016 jem wrote... see below.

.
More...



I suspect hillary is going to win unless dems don't show and a lot of people are going to vote for trump but were afraid to admit it.

I put that later scenario at about a 25% chance."-birther jem aka TJustice
 
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