Poll: Is it humanly possible to capture 3x ATR everday?

Is it humanly possible to capture 3x ATR everday?

  • Yes

    Votes: 64 22.5%

  • No

    Votes: 221 77.5%
  • Total voters
    285
Hilarious... another classic example of evasion, obfuscation and bloviation from the pied piper of ET himself, Jack Hershey!

Maybe that's because he did -24% in a trading contest? Or because he knows his stuff doesn't test out?

Whatever the reason, Jack's backed out of yet another opportunity to show us proof of his pompous claims.

In response to this challenge:
Quote from smilingsynic:

They also know that 10X atr, or even 3X atr, is not a practical daily goal. For most traders, breaking even is a goal for which most can only hope. If you have real-time trading profits that refute my contention that the goal of 3X daily atr is absurd, I welcome you to provide them. If not, then admit the truth: you are a narcissist here only for attention.
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Jack replied in his usual manner:
Quote from jack hershey:
I look at this paragraph as something someone might slide across my desk for an assessment. Were i to pull out an 11x17 and my four color ballpoint pen, I would be able to sketch out the paragraph with inputs and outputs and in between a few boxes where information came in horizontally and I put arrows down into them and put timing function names on these lines. Each box would have a name and I would sketch the internal logic in a balloon and send the balloon to the box.

When I was done someone would pick it up and put it on the cartoon bulletin board.

Here is the way it is in some places. People bear down and do work. They work and get the job done. Some of these people help others. I understand that you have never been in such a place. It is very common when several businesses are run in a community or in buildings for people to occassionally look over each others shoulders. They get to observe the consequences of people working and that these people can get something done.
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Quote from Trader666:

Hilarious... another classic example of evasion, obfuscation and bloviation from the pied piper of ET himself, Jack Hershey!

Maybe that's because he did -24% in a trading contest? Or because he knows his stuff doesn't test out?

Whatever the reason, Jack's backed out of yet another opportunity to show us proof of his pompous claims.

In response to this challenge:


Jack replied in his usual manner:
More...

I do not believe this person (smilingsynic) was phishing. The group doing the phishing is generally known an appreciated.

This person is just a cynic (who smiles) and he simply doesn't think it is possible to extract what the market offers.

He doesn't ask how he could do it but he does feel that I should prove what he wants proven.

What I have suggested the market does is generally known and accepted. He feels that people are lucky enough some of the time to just breakeven. For him breaking even is apparently a challenge.

He may be following many of the ET'ers down the path you are leading people down for all I know. That is fine.

Any applied scientist would look at the capital flowing and simp[ly consider entraining it to his benefit. Not many people who conduct science would do any concluding about whether breakeven is even a remote possibility.

One thing that can be said about people who can perceive the offer of the markets is that very few of them use a rational approach at examining the opportunity. Why isn't applied science used more often to engineer a method(s) to make money in trading the markets.? It is used often, I believe. And the application of science is usually done like you do it or smilingcynic does it. The consequences have been unkind to you and to him.

Do you think that I do anything new and original?

Who cares what the answer is. I would not have to do new things to take the offer. I do new things simply to make a higher money velocity.

For me its as easy as 1, 2, 3.

MODE

MADA

hold/reverse.

The minor little nuances are just killers, though.

Building the mind cures all of this kind of issue though.


If a person cannot keep track of the MODE, he screws up over and over.

If a person can't do a routine and reach closure each lap of the routine, he screws up over and over.

If a person has learned fear and greed and supply and demand and entry and exit, he is going to screw up over and over.

A lot of people here are very used to screwing up. they palver endlessly about thier short comings. Not making money day after day has consequences. The money is there and being offered.

For example, you and blue, et al don't do MODE, you don't do MADA you don't do H/R. You keep doing what you do and expect a different result than you keep getting.

You are making ___________ choices.

I do MODE; I do MADA; I do H/R. I do not think or act like you do.

What is wrong here? In case no one has told you, you are continuing to learn failure. Learning failure will make you like you are. By now the time has passed where it is possible for you to go through changes. So we get to find out how long it will be before you are replaced by others who think and behave as you do.

As you see, I have definitely been replaced. And others are posting about people making over a milli0on a year by using 25 to 60 contracts to trade ES while using similar methods. Can you imagine what it would have been like for hypostomous to have spent 6 days with cocaine and cocaine's friend? two three day observation sessions have gotten cocaine the ability to go about replicating what cocaine's frind does. Phil is helping cocaine.

Meanwhile you, et al, are still doing your thing over and over and over until you leave and get replaced by people just like you.

This is not an IQ thing.

It is not an EQ thing either.

What it is about is individuals deciding whether or not to become rich by building their minds before their minds are beyond building. For you and your upcoming replacements it is too late as has been explained. Your SNAFU.
 
Just more smoke and mirrors in a feeble attempt to avoid verifying your claims. Who do you think you're fooling? If you really could trade, you'd surely rub our noses in proof.
 
Quote from Trader666:

Who do you think you're fooling? If you really could trade, you'd surely rub our noses in proof.
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The $64 question.. and by a strange coincidence, Jack's bank balance
 
We are making a suggestion and that suggestion requires a decision.

Our suggestion is that trading knowledge and skills can be transfered from those that practice PVT and SCT to those who wish to learn it by doing the work. The work is largely building knowledge and skills through acquired experience.

There seems to be a myth or myths out there that suggest that trading knowledge and skills may be acquired using some shortcut or other which gets around gaining experience by a daily participation in experiencing the work of PVT and SCT.

Up to now most people who are involved found out how much money is made by learning by doing it. Recently several collateral examples have been made available that confirm that what the market offers can be extracted day after day. Over the last 50 years these kinds of examples have always been available.

By running journals and answering questions, many people have benefited directly and indirectly.

For some people, it may be seen that the fork in the road away from CW is worth while. Those who stay with the CW and refine their performance are largely represented by the spectrum of the 2008 P&L thread. There the edges and techniques, capital, profits from such capitalization, money management, risk controls and sharpe ratios and drawdown ratios (Calmar and mar) depict all that makes up the CW trading.

PVT and SCT is presented, the capital (contracts levels recommended), performance, and risk aspects, trades and chat room dialogue and records are available too as part of the ongoing communication.

Two paths are available and each have performance characteristics. They are now comparable from almost any dilligence standard a person wishes to use.

As has been seen, a person can go to observe either fork in the road and he can collect information on what is transpiring for his personal use and decision making.

Newbies come into trading, largely, via the CW route and build a diligence measuring system in those CW terms they become aware of. All most all platforms allow backtesting in the CW context. The failure rate of newbies is legend.

For SCT we recommend starting with 1 contract on the forrest level and trade until the intial capital is doubled. Then take out the intial capital and apply it to its alternative family application.

Knowing the P,V relation on an unconscious level is part of this prologue. A restart occurs with the same capital as the initial capital but it is composed of 100% profits. This NLP setting allows an attitude adjustment. From this point on more levels of detail are learned by plateau after plateau and the successive addition of contracts solely based upon performance as depicted in contracts.

For all successful methods the equity curve follows the Power Law as profits are reinvested. Because plateaux are longer than the time required to make money on the plateau, gaining experience at a given contract level is the dominant factor. In this way the three emotions become engendered; they are: support, comfort and confidence.

People who do not have this type experience do not have it by their choices. Newbies can easily experience fear and this fear is brought on by ignorance and lack of skills, both as a consequence of lack of experience. People who have been repeating the same experience also become accustomed to two things they tell us: fear and greed.

For this class of people it may be seen that a new form of diligence becomes important. Sniff this type of diligence by reading people learning CW from people they respect in the 2008 P&L thread. These people gravitate to the P&L thread because they are seeking something that they do not have: a trading plan and a business plan. they are going to construct both by following their diligence results.

Collectively, on ET that diligence results in what is believable and what is possible as porven by the 2008 P&L thread.

The journals on PVT and SCT do not attract this crowd who is using the 2008 P&L thread. This is because one uses a P&L to develop a trading and business plan and the other uses a work study plan to develop a trading and business plan.

The approaches are not interchangable because of the learning criteria. The CW learning criteria, melds a person character and personality with an edge or edges preference. Here prediction, betting, hoping, protective measures and exiting make up the knowldege and skills acquisition tutorial largely conducted through examples and some Q and A.

The pool extraction template learning process goes from coarse and simple to fine and detailed using a routine called MADA. This is a work oriented process where M is learned first, etc..

Successful traders of any variety go through four stages as is well known. These stages are elicited and controlled by mental processes.

This thrad started in "strategy" by a person who questions what is possible. It was dumped from strategy because the querey wasn't focussed on strategy enough. It was more focussed on what isn't possible.

It is pretty clear that CW performance standards are being applied to PVT and SCT as a pool extraction algorithm. The CW people conclude that it is not possible to achieve what it is suggested that the pool extraction algorithm achieves. On the other hand and fortunately, a couple of methods kindred to the pool extraction algorithm show that much more than the CW standards is being achieved by using some of the core ingredients of the pool extraction (PE) algorithm.

Why is it not possible for a person of the CW persuation to shift out of that algorithm to the PE algorithm?

1. there is little overlap.

2. the emotional basis of each is very different.

3. the fear engendered in experienced CW traders is affects many things:

a. switching from entry/exit orientation to anything else is not a possibility.

b. the shift in performance from CW to PE is unbelievable since the CW does not start from what the market offers (it starts from a competitive "edge" belief system)

c. the learning progressions of CW based on fear and the learning progression of PE starting with coarse and simple are not compatible nor interchangable.

d. the hope, drawdown(discipline) modus of CW is contrary to holding according to sentiment during continue of the MODE Continue/Change analysis routine.

e. CW does not link aspects of trading (entry and exit are not linked by rules) while PE does link parts of the data set such as MODE and Sentiment to arrive at all trade timing.

My conclusion is that the ratio of 20/80 will always exist. the fact that the 20 is a higher value that the normal success/failure ratio in trading is just a matter of fact that comes from the intellectual objectivity contrast of CW and PE. I do not feel there is any attaraction of one group to move to the other group. This is a direct consequence of decision making. No one in PE would want to have the performance level of the CW and no one in the CW can believe the performance level of the PE.

Validation is just as independent for each of CW and PE. The validation of CW is largely dependent on induction and thus their black swan inherent difficulties. On the other hand all logic of PE has a first order criteria of non induction and being non probabalistic as its front end (never ommitting to use the null hypothesis. Certainty via sufficiency is the criteria. The classic example in ET of applying CW to PE and its not working is the hypostomous musings. Certainly none of nitro, Babak, vikana, sttenbarger, et al were going to drop induction methods and probability from their vantage points to see or consider that the PE characteristics and requirements had to be part of any appraisals.
 
Quote from jack hershey:



Our suggestion is that trading knowledge and skills can be transfered from those that practice PVT and SCT to those who wish to learn it by doing the work. The work is largely building knowledge and skills through acquired experience.
More...

Shut up you old fool, after 50 years you still can't prove it works in realtime.. you are a laughable old clown
 
Quote from bluebolt:

Shut up you old fool, after 50 years you still can't prove it works in realtime.. you are a laughable old clown
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You have a dilemma on your hands. Maybe or maybe not, you can understand this.

If you can't, please do not impose upon me to instruct you in this matter. Get one of your buddies to explain where you are.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

You have a dilemma on your hands. Maybe or maybe not, you can understand this.

If you can't, please do not impose upon me to instruct you in this matter. Get one of your buddies to explain where you are.
More...

Says the guy with one foot in the grave after a miserable life of failure :p
 
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