POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[cnms2]

Good for you, but allow me to politely doubt it.

If I'm not mistaken, Spydertrader's last reported performance was to double his investment account in less than a year. I doubt that you consistently can do the same thing monthly. He's swing trading, so less effort would be either an almost automatic trading system, or position trading. OTOH Jack claims that his ES trading on the 5 minute chart, at expert level, is about 800% more profitable than his equity trading system which is at the origin of Spydertrader's method.

I have no proof for Spydertrader's and Jack's claims, but I generally understand their methods and they are sound.

Maybe you're open to give more details about your trading method and performance. I have no other reason to doubt your claims, except that I've seen no backing.

I'm always ready to learn something new.

Quote from vital-analitix:

I did read part of it in the past and for a while followed SpyderTrader's journal.

Now, why would I want to follow Jack's method if I can leisurely get his (SpyderTrader's) yearly results in less than a month and with less stress / work?

 

[hans37]

Quote from makosgu:

Thanks for verifying that your statements regarding trend were inconsistent as noted by your 97% success rate.

MAK!

Sorry you misread that. my success rate(profitable trades ) is no where near 97% however the amount of time spent in profitable trades very closely approaches this.

My quote If I'm "In" (aka profitable ) it's a trend, otherwise why should I care?"

Means #1 the only trend I care about is the one I have that's profitable. (the rest are windmills of the mind)

#2) It's very rare for my position to be both open and at a loss upon observation. (I don't hold onto losers)

hope that helped your confusion.(but it really wasn't confusion was it?)

 

[hans37]

Quote from Grob109:



Staying in 97% of successful non exit stop outs is not a way of making a comment on trading performance.

Thanks for your concern but it was a clarification for a confused poster, it was never intended as a "performance " claim.

Ever heard the axiom, " cut your losses short ,let you winners run"

 

[vital-analitix]

Quote from cnms2:

.....

Maybe you're open to give more details about your trading method and performance. I have no other reason to doubt your claims, except that I've seen no backing.

I'm always ready to learn something new.

Sorry to disappoint you but I am not about to let the cat get out of the bag.

As they say: "It's for me to know and for you to wonder".

 

[cornholetrading]

OK one more day here to see if this is really going to happen after all the hype. IF it was I am surprised nothing has been said yet.

Quote from Charlie Dow:


You want an unbiased test . . . you have it. Beginning February, 13th, 2005, after I am done traveling, I will trade a virgin account starting with $10,000.00 for 20 days straight but not here on ET. We have all seen what you and your cronies can do to a journal. This will give you 20 full days to see that Trend following has absolutely nothing to do with "buying tops or selling bottoms" or survivorship bias as you usually spew. This will be an account that I will post the account statement to on a daily basis. I challenge you to do the same. Both of us trading the Spot EURO. My worthless Trend following system against the best of whatever-you-call-what-you-do. So if you kick my butt I will give you ever bit of information on how I trade. Any information regarding it that you want and I will leave ET forever in humiliation. I will even give you the profits off my virgin account. But when I kick your butt, and I will, what will you give me? Make it fair now surfer . . . if you have a problem with understanding what that word "fair" means I can direct you to www.dictionary.com .

 

[nononsense]

Quote from cnms2:


I have no proof for [A's] and [B's] claims, but I generally understand their methods and they are sound.

Quote from vital-analitix:

Sorry to disappoint you [cnms2] but I am not about to let the cat get out of the bag.

As they say: "It's for me to know and for you [cnms2] to wonder".

 

[TraderD]

Quote from cornholetrading:

OK one more day here to see if this is really going to happen after all the hype. IF it was I am surprised nothing has been said yet.

cornholetrading,
ET is grateful to you for keeping "eyes on the ball". This contest challenge proves a lot.

 

[polestar]

To spot an uptrend, I look for a breakout after seeing 2 pull backs, and 1 higher high. So essentially I want to get long as price takes out first higher high.

 

[easyrider]

Quote from cornholetrading:

OK one more day here to see if this is really going to happen after all the hype. IF it was I am surprised nothing has been said yet.

Who is going to go to all that trouble to make a point? I doubt it will happen but hope it does as I would like to see the Prof put the petal to the metal in realtime.



Re: This thread. I have a tape by LBR that I have watched about a thousand times. She states that according to the forefathers of technical anaylsis once a trend is established the odds favor it continuing. Unfortunately she does not specify how long a trend on what time frame. I believe this is true because its how I make a living but my approach is purely visual. If I see a nice long move in one direction without any significant pullbacks then get a pullback that does not pull back too far I will bet that its going to resume but I know of no studies to back this up. Do you?

 

[cornholetrading]

I have been informed that it will be a no go for the "live" 20 day trading journal. So unfortunately there will be no backing up of the claims that will be viewable to the masses.