POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?
- Thread starter billpritjr
- Start date
yes, yes. however, these "systems" do not rely on ethreal, non testable trends or standard TA.---- the issue is, these programs change as the market regimes shift across time.
surfer
Murray Ruggiero
Sponsor
What are you using to switch ? I have researched Equity curve feedback ,walk forward optimization and written articles on these topics.
Are you using adaptive methodologies like cycle analysis. I wrote about the methodology of using the current cycle length to set the breakout channel with about a decade ago.
hi,
yes, i am familiar with your work, and respect the contributions you have given over the years.
i was refering to, in simple, layman terms, in my response to the specific question--- primarily strategies where the profit is known prior to entry--high frequency finance/rebate trading/certain arbritrage strategies currently working in 3rd tier countries, et al.
sorry for the confusion.
surfer
LOL... Quite the opposite. I read and commented several pages back. Here's the referesher... It was interesting because it was a...
11-25-05 05:51 PM
As I had mentioned, all of your posts were a quick read... This was the simplest example to prove. If you're in and "profitable", then you being in, in the latter post was clearly not a trend since it was a loss of 2%... As a result, if you're in, it is not always a trend since it is evident that there are times you are in and not profitable...
as a note of clarification, upon retrospect, i should have used the term "tactic", not "system". my apologies for the confusion.
thank you,
surfer
thank you,
surfer
Quote from makosgu:
A couple of comments and nothing taken personally.. Unlike Hans, I can agree to disagree. Apparently, it is alot harder to agree to disagree and easier to disagree and fan the flames so to speak.
The subtlety that I regard is with respect to the present moment. If I continue to wear my raincoat because it is raining, am I making a prediction that it is continuing to rain, or am I just assuming the present moment? Perhaps it is merely a difference of perception between you and I and of course, that is ok. The idea is that when most people ask for a prediction, they want the precision of an event (ie. where, when, what). The present is just stating the facts. Because I don't know when something will cease to continue, I wind up being stuck in now to constantly monitoring the situation as it happens. So I enter the trend. For me, my entrance is valid because my beliefs have established that my trend reading is consistently accurate and thus my trading entrance is in compliance with the identification of the trend.
It is true that my entrance is assuming the market trend. It is very possible that at that moment at which I enter, the market has begun its failure to continue that which I had assumed (ie. long trend). As long as my read was accurate, the assumed entrance is acceptable if not perfect.
The item which I believe to be rarely understood is the accuracy of reading and/or identifying the present moment trend. I consider this to be very important, especially for any beginner, since if one can accurately read the trend every time, then profit consistency is a natural consequence. This is why the thread topic is so important. How do you determine the trend? If you can accurately determine the trend every single time, you have unlocked a crucial key to consistent profits. So Hans will find this to be mumbo jumbo as he should since what he does and what I do have ZERO conceptual overlap. So what if he just did some work. He hoots about CD selling etc...??? Who is Hans to say that another person's time is not worth what they're asking. How about some content Hans? "HOW DO YOU DETERMINE TREND"
MAK!
nice post.
I haven't read the tread.
It is a tough consideration to explain that there is no prediction needed invoving in making money and also to get across to anyone that the market simply moves into the future in a manner that is within the bounds established and identifiable in the present.
I have only run into one of hans' posts elsewhere on TA as an art, possibly.. I'll read the thread if possible.
to identify the current trend requires one's mind to be clear of bias and anticipation of what is coming nex t.......who cares what is coming next...it is what has proven a few hundred times or more to be what is very likely coming next...9 of 10 t imes minimum...if you don't believe what your system tells you, and yes discretionary is a system, then get out of the business as you will never trade except blindly hoping you are correct.................. .protect your money{stops} correctly every single time with what again has proven to be let's say 90% the likelihood of stop being correctly placed if run is normal...not exceptionally strong, just normal...........if mechanical system filters the fakeouts and embraces the breakouts without the human mind allowed to interfere with process, then who cares if slight losses occur rarely if 10% of time is considered rarely.......and direction or trend short and long are both seen as mechanical system sh owing when they start and when they finish.....when they start ever ytime............. if you can't see the trend as price is going up,down,sideways then go to the 1 min chart .ES NQ ...YM intraday speaking only......trend is in the eye of the trader..........if s ystem doesn't work as above..........