POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

  • Single MA

    Votes: 39 22.9%

  • Dual MA crossover

    Votes: 50 29.4%

  • Trendline

    Votes: 61 35.9%

  • N-day breakout

    Votes: 20 11.8%
  • Total voters
    170
Quote from Agyar:

Hey there. I enjoy your posts, so don't take this personally, but I have to disagree with you on this point.

When your analysis tells you the ES trend is up, and you enter the ES long at 1226.50, you are predicting that the trend will continue and you will be able to exit at a profit right? I don't understand how you can say this is not predicting. Just because you have a positive expectation, doesn't mean it is not predicting. Just because it is not random, does not mean you are not predicting.
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A couple of comments and nothing taken personally. :cool:. Unlike Hans, I can agree to disagree. Apparently, it is alot harder to agree to disagree and easier to disagree and fan the flames so to speak.

The subtlety that I regard is with respect to the present moment. If I continue to wear my raincoat because it is raining, am I making a prediction that it is continuing to rain, or am I just assuming the present moment? Perhaps it is merely a difference of perception between you and I and of course, that is ok. The idea is that when most people ask for a prediction, they want the precision of an event (ie. where, when, what). The present is just stating the facts. Because I don't know when something will cease to continue, I wind up being stuck in now to constantly monitoring the situation as it happens. So I enter the trend. For me, my entrance is valid because my beliefs have established that my trend reading is consistently accurate and thus my trading entrance is in compliance with the identification of the trend.

It is true that my entrance is assuming the market trend. It is very possible that at that moment at which I enter, the market has begun its failure to continue that which I had assumed (ie. long trend). As long as my read was accurate, the assumed entrance is acceptable if not perfect.

The item which I believe to be rarely understood is the accuracy of reading and/or identifying the present moment trend. I consider this to be very important, especially for any beginner, since if one can accurately read the trend every time, then profit consistency is a natural consequence. This is why the thread topic is so important. How do you determine the trend? If you can accurately determine the trend every single time, you have unlocked a crucial key to consistent profits. So Hans will find this to be mumbo jumbo as he should since what he does and what I do have ZERO conceptual overlap. So what if he just did some work. He hoots about CD selling etc...??? Who is Hans to say that another person's time is not worth what they're asking. How about some content Hans? "HOW DO YOU DETERMINE TREND"

MAK!
 
Quote from makosgu:

How about some content Hans? "HOW DO YOU DETERMINE TREND"

MAK!
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Evidently you skipped, where I answered that very question.
I don't make efforts to determine the infinite number of trends available. The "trend" most people speak of is only knowable after the fact.

hans37


Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 114


11-15-05 05:55 PM

If I'm "In" (aka profitable ) it's a trend, otherwise why should I care?
 
Quote from OddTrader:

Probably when the trend has finished.
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That was a joke (sort of), then.

Now seriously, if your system is an "always-in-the-market" type using SAR (see most of the 82 systems below), the current trend's ending would be naturally (presumedly?) the beginning of next trend.

Q
Technical Trading Systems for Commodities and Stocks
http://www.traderspress.org/detail.asp?product_id=914

"this book is a collection of 82 systems already developed, with precise entry and exit rules already established."
UQ


Quote from porgie:

do you mean when it finishes you can see the beginning of it but not the end yet? or may I see both when it is over?
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Quote from porgie:

so the trend might not be our friend?
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hi porgie,

the concept of trend is very tricky and its one of the main ways the market lures players to their demise. it's super easy to look at a chart and see if price has been going up or down for a period of time--- the trend traders will buy on higher highs, and sell on lower lows anticipating the movement in the same direction to continue. object in motion, tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force is the rule the trendys generally cite. unfortunately for them, but fortunately for those who can see this, the market does not work this way for obvious reasons--- review profturf's posts on elite for examples of testing of trend that have been performed.

the only way to know if the trend will continue after you enter, is to enter the trade. remember charts can be very decieving.

good luck,

surfer
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

hi porgie,

the concept of trend is very tricky and its one of the main ways the market lures players to their demise. it's super easy to look at a chart and see if price has been going up or down for a period of time--- the trend traders will buy on higher highs, and sell on lower lows anticipating the movement in the same direction to continue. object in motion, tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force is the rule the trendys generally cite. unfortunately for them, but fortunately for those who can see this, the market does not work this way for obvious reasons--- review profturf's posts on elite for examples of testing of trend that have been performed.

the only way to know if the trend will continue after you enter, is to enter the trade. remember charts can be very decieving.

good luck,

surfer
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"This is an excellent book that I highly recommend...No, there are no secrets in it, but it's extremely well written and contains many nuggets of knowledge from a multitude of top traders. I enjoyed it more than the Market Wizard books. It earned a spot in my 10 all-time favorite trading books."
Dave Goodboy's (a.k.a. Marketsurfer) EliteTrader Review"

-In case this is not clear, the book that Marketsurfer "highly recommends" is called "TREND FOLLOWING".....see here: http://www.trendfollowing.com/endorsements.html

Perhaps I am missing something, but I thought your main argument is that there is no trend to be traded and the guys who think they can follow them somehow are victims of an optical illusion ? This book seems to be the "marketwizards" of trend-followers, right?



:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
 
the review you referenced was provided as a professional courtesy as is standard in the industry. it was retracted and is being used without my permission by the author. the author is refusing to remove it, despite my requests for same.

upon a deeper read of the book, i realized that the anecdotal evidence cited for support of trend following was simply not applicable to the vast majority of traders, did not stand up to testing, and the book contained no real value other than entertainment--hence the retraction and removal of the review from elite.

on the plus side-- its an easy, fun read and is well written---but the premise is fatally flawed.

best,

surfer
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

the review you referenced was provided as a professional courtesy as is standard in the industry. it was retracted and is being used without my permission by the author. the author is refusing to remove it, despite my requests for same.

upon a deeper read of the book, i realized that the anecdotal evidence cited for support of trend following was simply not applicable to the vast majority of traders, did not stand up to testing, and the book contained no real value other than entertainment--hence the retraction and removal of the review from elite.

on the plus side-- its an easy, fun read and is well written---but the premise is fatally flawed.

best,

surfer
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As someone that wants a lot of proof for trend following to work where is yours saying that it does not work? Also your definition of trend trading of buying high and selling higher is only one definition of trend following. A lot of traders use the buy a pullback within a trend which is still trend following but lower risk then buying new highs. I guess the hard part is deciding where to buy during the pullback but all the same it is still trend following by trading in the establish direction of the trend with the assumption that it will continue.
 
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