POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[steve46]

Excuse me

It is the ability to "recognize" that separates us as traders.

Those who recognize WHEN price is about to move in a direction and ACT will make money.

Those who cannot recognize as quickly, or as accurately, will lose money.

HOW one "recognizes" is part of the art and science of trading.

The rest of it is (often) a semantic jumble that does not move our understanding forward.

Thanks,
Steve

 

[hans37]

Quote from Agyar:

Hey there. I enjoy your posts, so don't take this personally, but I have to disagree with you on this point.

When your analysis tells you the ES trend is up, and you enter the ES long at 1226.50, you are predicting that the trend will continue and you will be able to exit at a profit right? I don't understand how you can say this is not predicting. Just because you have a positive expectation, doesn't mean it is not predicting. Just because it is not random, does not mean you are not predicting.

I agree that we can know the present. The present is ES = 1226.50. Anything PAST that is a prediction. What will the next tick be? That is a "guess" for all intents and purposes.

Sorry to belabor this point. It actually doesn't matter if I call it predicting and you call it basketweaving. I'm not sure it is relevant to the core points of the thread.

Good trading.

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=predict

"Synonyms: predict, call, forecast, foretell, prognosticate
These verbs mean to tell about something in advance of its occurrence by means of special knowledge or inference"

I suspect it has something to do with some people get an ego boost out of making simple things sound complex so that they can feel better about themselves, pretty comical to me.

 

[fritz_haber]

Quote from Agyar:

Hey there. I enjoy your posts, so don't take this personally, but I have to disagree with you on this point.

When your analysis tells you the ES trend is up, and you enter the ES long at 1226.50, you are predicting that the trend will continue and you will be able to exit at a profit right? I don't understand how you can say this is not predicting. Just because you have a positive expectation, doesn't mean it is not predicting. Just because it is not random, does not mean you are not predicting.

If someone wants to be very fussy, then it's probalby a prediction of the direction.
But not a prediction of a price level.
It's like the weatherforecast telling you, the weather will be good. How good? We don't know, but we will see.
Same here. The price will go higher. How high? We don't know, but we will see .

fritz_haber

 

[Agyar]

Quote from steve46:


...

The rest of it is (often) a semantic jumble that does not move our understanding forward.

Well, there's one thing we can agree on.

I'll let it lie, as I don't think from a practical perspective it matters. I had enough of academia in college.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Vienna:

Surf,

like I said, you seem to be a nice guy and we have chatted over the years...so I don't like to do this but...it just calls for it.



SO- ARE YOU TRADING IN THE CHALLENGE: a simple YES or NO will do?

Anyway, Best regards,

sorry to disapoint, but i have absolutely zero interest in any type of trading contest. i don't sell courses, seminars, trading how to books\, etc. so winning or losing a contest means nothing to me.

HOWEVER, charlie dow, prof logic, etal--- sells a course and/ or seminar based on outrageous claims posted here and on his website, therefore the burden of proof is squarely in his court.

everyday i need to perform for myself and the investors--- win or lose, i have nothing to gain from this type of challenge. the prizes that i pursue are of far greater significance.

furthermore, charlie dow needs to prove himself against the market, not against me nor anyone else--- he agreed to do this in march with murray R. or someone else testing his trading system. we will then know if he is a charlaton.

best,

surfer

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from fritz_haber:

So it's up to marketsurfer ...

Charlie has opened the doors for you, now be man and walk through.

If you are in fear of the competition, then please be so kind and stop posting, otherwise your behavior is just childish.

A good start into the new week and may the trend be with you,

fritz_haber

Ups ... I forgot, there are now trends ;-).

nah, fritz, you have it wrong. charlie dow makes the claims of omnipotent trading prowness here and on his site. he uses these claims to sell seminars, etc therefore he needs to prove his system against the market, not against me or anyone else.

he agreed earlier to do this in march with murray rugerio testing his system. we will soon see if the untouchable track record posted on his website is a fabrication, or if he actually posesesses the superb trading acumen he professes.

surfer

 

[Vienna]

Quote from marketsurfer:

"sorry to disapoint, but i have absolutely zero interest in any type of trading contest. i don't sell courses, seminars, trading how to books\, etc. so winning or losing a contest means nothing to me.

HOWEVER, charlie dow, prof logic, etal--- sells a course and/ or seminar based on outrageous claims posted here and on his website, therefore the burden of proof is squarely in his court. " End of Quote.

-But you DIDN'T disappoint, don't you see? You did exactly what I expected and also predicted. In this case prediction was actually quite easy, I might add .

And "winning or losing a contest means nothing to me"...ahem- is that so?
Me thinks it is quite clear that losing this contest would mean a great deal to you...otherwise- again- why not just do it? YOU chose the timeframe and even the market, am quite sure the Prof would oblige, wouldn't you Prof?

So you attempt a graceful exit, throw up all kinds of smoke, but still "en passant" call the claims of the Prof "outrageous"... this maneuver is called "throwing the stone and hiding the hand"...PROVE that the claims are outrageous, otherwise you completely lose credibility, don't you see?

Anyways, enough of this... point made, no use in beating a dead horse....

 

[downtickboy]

Quote from marketsurfer:

sorry to disapoint, but i have absolutely zero interest in any type of trading contest. i don't sell courses, seminars, trading how to books\, etc. so winning or losing a contest means nothing to me.

HOWEVER, charlie dow, prof logic, etal--- sells a course and/ or seminar based on outrageous claims posted here and on his website, therefore the burden of proof is squarely in his court.

everyday i need to perform for myself and the investors--- win or lose, i have nothing to gain from this type of challenge. the prizes that i pursue are of far greater significance.

furthermore, charlie dow needs to prove himself against the market, not against me nor anyone else--- he agreed to do this in march with murray R. or someone else testing his trading system. we will then know if he is a charlaton.

best,

surfer

Well you can look at it both ways. You have made your share of what many feel are outrageous claims too on the existence of successfully trading trends. If you insist that Charlie must have accountability why is it any different for you? I remember a time of you trying to market other websites and use ET as a place to advertise other products too so why are you suddenly in a different category. I think if you are calling him out you have as much to prove about your market claims and how it works as he does. Lets see some objective testing of your strategy and then give it away for free like you want him to do. Just being fair right?

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from steve46:

Excuse me

It is the ability to "recognize" that separates us as traders.

Those who recognize WHEN price is about to move in a direction and ACT will make money.

Those who cannot recognize as quickly, or as accurately, will lose money.

HOW one "recognizes" is part of the art and science of trading.

The rest of it is (often) a semantic jumble that does not move our understanding forward.

Thanks,
Steve

Now that was a refreshing statement! Bravo.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from Vienna: YOU chose the timeframe and even the market, am quite sure the Prof would oblige, wouldn't you Prof?[/B]

I absolutely would. Doesn't make any difference the timeframe; swing, position, intraday, daily. It will never happen. The Neiderguy won't let his employee "crash & burn" and make a public spectacle of himself.