POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[bali_survivor]

10K only? What, are you afraid of slippage?

With your "perfect" system you should by now be trading the max number of contracts allowed.

Why not trade 500 contracts with your pidlingly system?

Ah, I know, because you cannot. And we all know why.

Maria

 

[hans37]

Some humor provided by Charlie

Sorry if that was over your head.

I'm quite versed in Physics, Algebra, Calculus, Analytical Analysis and Quantum Problem Solving as well.

I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

May you someday turn the corner with an open mind to view what lies in realms you currently have no knowledge of.

Trends can't be predicted but you wouldn't understand that concept because you can't understand the realm it is being presented.

I call trades in front of live people with deadly accuracy.

The only way to determine Trend is to create a ridged environment of consistency of information and fixed rules.

I state Trends can't be predicted, only read. There is a major difference but if you won't entertain the concept, it doesn't pay to elaborate. They will maintain themselves until they reverse.

If this is too hard for you to comprehend, I could use crayons to spell it out.

One must understand that pullbacks must occur so the Trend can continue.

If you read the Trend on your Chart correctly and you enter a trade on an opposing oscillation it is impossible for the Trend to reverse immediately after entry.

I have some traders doing very well with my stuff because they did they homework. Others haven't done well because they came into it with a closed mind and constantly wanting to argue with the Market or wanting to add to it because they thought they could improve on it… Those that add to my stuff never make it either

The industrious traders pick my brain and run off to cultivate them.

The statement I made about adding to it or changing it will force it to fail isn't meant to be an arrogant statement. If the truck manufacturer tells you the damn truck takes diesel fuel and you try to put unleaded gas in it . . . I would suppose that is the manufacturers fault when the engine blows up right?... And you have the gray matter to even make that statement like I am arrogant because I require traders to follow directions . . . And you wonder why the success rate isn't perfect

both KNOW how to read the Market so a trade won't immediately go against them. They were not only told that they have seen it and proved it to themselves.

One might entertain the content of your posts if you knew what I do.

This does work intraday, swing or position, weekly monthly daily . . . whatever in any Market; stock commodity, futues, fund . . . anything that can be tracked with a price chart.


Those that know how I trade know I watch for price to confirm that a top or bottom has been created before I ever think about placing a trade.


No one cares if you don't believe that a trader can be consistently successful but if you are unwilling to rule out the possibility through application then your opinion is as worthless as everyone else who follows the same line of reasoning.

I'm not interested in generating anything but egg on your face…

 

[steve46]

Hello:

Although I have not read the previous posts, I have to say something about this most recent waste of my time.

The idea that one needs to use quantum mechanics in order to obtain success in today's stock market is absurd. I have both undergraduate and graduate degrees in Physics, and aside from using the math skills, have found little or no reason to use Quantum Mechanics in any form. All of the market mechanisms can be dealt with quite easily without having to analyze things on the sub-atomic level. Give me a break you total meat puppet.

The comment that one cannot predict trend is (one hopes) just ignorant. How is it that a person who supposedly has a background in "quantum problem solving" does not know about the mathematical methods for anticipating changes in local volatility. One asssumes that a person with such a background would be conversant with advanced mathematics. Surely you know how to obtain a viable estimator for an EGARCH characterization of local volatility. By all means feel free to let us know how that is done Mr. Physics.

Deadly accurate? I love that. You are able to predict market movement with "deadly accuracy".. Well we happen to have a chatroom here at ET. I agree that skilled professionals can do things that most believe impossible. What provokes me is your style. I have the feeling you are full of shit. Surely you are willing to show us just how deadly accurate you are...Monday would be a good time to display such awesome talent....and to prove me wrong.

Based on your comments, one would expect you to be the next coming of Jesus Christ. Personally I am never too proud to learn from a master such as yourself. I and others like me who orbit around you, would like to hear more about your ability to predict the market.

All the best,

Steve

Edit:

by the way, under the heading of predicting trend. I "predict" that there will be at least one tradeable trend on Monday in the ES and ER markets. That trend will in all probability start at approximately 10:05am EST. and end about 90 minutes later.

 

[cosmic]

Quote from steve46:

Hello:

Although I have not read the previous posts, I have to say something about this most recent waste of my time.

The idea that one needs to use quantum mechanics in order to obtain success in today's stock market is absurd. I have both undergraduate and graduate degrees in Physics, and aside from using the math skills, have found little or no reason to use Quantum Mechanics in any form. All of the market mechanisms can be dealt with quite easily without having to analyze things on the sub-atomic level. Give me a break you total meat puppet.

The comment that one cannot predict trend is (one hopes) just ignorant. How is it that a person who supposedly has a background in "quantum problem solving" does not know about the mathematical methods for anticipating changes in local volatility. One asssumes that a person with such a background would be conversant with advanced mathematics. Surely you know how to obtain a viable estimator for an EGARCH characterization of local volatility. By all means feel free to let us know how that is done Mr. Physics.

Deadly accurate? I love that. You are able to predict market movement with "deadly accuracy".. Well we happen to have a chatroom here at ET. I agree that skilled professionals can do things that most believe impossible. What provokes me is your style. I have the feeling you are full of shit. Surely you are willing to show us just how deadly accurate you are...Monday would be a good time to display such awesome talent....and to prove me wrong.

Based on your comments, one would expect you to be the next coming of Jesus Christ. Personally I am never too proud to learn from a master such as yourself. I and others like me who orbit around you, would like to hear more about your ability to predict the market.

All the best,

Steve

Edit:

by the way, under the heading of predicting trend. I "predict" that there will be at least one tradeable trend on Monday in the ES and ER markets. That trend will in all probability start at approximately 10:05am EST. and end about 90 minutes later.

HiLo Steve,
I guess most people confuse the issue of reading vs. predicting.

We can't predict the market's waves & we don't need it.

Why?

Because if we define how to read a trend & the market's position in that trend (Hightide/Lowtide) we can trade both parts of the trend profitably.

It is absolutly not about predicting SR levels or oscillation outcomes, it is about reading & being prepared for the appropriate action.

Yes, you may have an early entry now & then, but who cares?
With good trade management it's not hurting you much, being about breakeven or + / - 3 ticks most of time.

Have all a great sunday,
cosmic

 

[cosmic]

I should maybe add, that I think if you want to beat the markets with predictions, you show no respect for them & that's why they "bite" you in the back

respect for price itself is what we mostly miss as traders!

 

[steve46]

I think you are correct.

I believe that one can learn to read a market with varying degrees of accuracy.

I am pretty sure that all one needs to do this is to watch price movement on a regular basis, and learn to analyze movement using excel and simple parametric statistics. I say this because I learned to do it that way. It takes time to develop an approach that works, but once you have it, you can do (as I have mentioned before) things that most folks believe are impossible. You dont need esoteric knowledge to learn to read the markets.

There is no mystery here. There are many kinds of learning that operate this way. Look at the way that a good trader learns to tape read. In order to do it, one has to watch the tape every day, and at some point I guarantee you, things start to fall into place. I believe we all have abilities that we never develop because we don't think we can. All a person has to do is to put themselves in place and observe (knowing how to think critically would help as well).

Good luck to you
Steve

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from downtickboy:

I don't think this competition will ever happen but I bet there are a lot of other traders out there that would love to see the results of your trading. I think it would certainly shut up a lot of people (or prove them right) once and for all to see real results especially for this extended period of time. So hopefully you will decide to do it regardless if you will be joined or not.

I'll do it even when marketsiffer makes up some lame excuse why he won't participate. He'll probably yell the broker is in on it though or Globex is bias.

 

[hans37]

Maybe I am wrong but charlie seems to think "reading" the market in pseudo -real time is not the same as " predicting".

His distinction between "reading the market" and predicting" is complete BS concerning market turns.

All one has done is predicting what the market won't do , go through your stops.

Of course if you can't rationally admit you are making a prediction of future market behavior and it's really important that you pretend NOT to make predictions, then you do as charlie does and play STUPID semantical GAMES to obfuscate it.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from bali_survivor:

10K only? What, are you afraid of slippage?

With your "perfect" system you should by now be trading the max number of contracts allowed.

Why not trade 500 contracts with your pidlingly system?

Ah, I know, because you cannot. And we all know why.

Maria

I stated what I would do and when, the date should have been 02/13/06. Ridicule all you want until then, don't care. The clueless always ridiclue what they can't comprehend. You still won't be able to comprehend it when you see it but at least you see the results.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from steve46:

Hello:

Although I have not read the previous posts, I have to say something about this most recent waste of my time.

The idea that one needs to use quantum mechanics in order to obtain success in today's stock market is absurd. I have both undergraduate and graduate degrees in Physics, and aside from using the math skills, have found little or no reason to use Quantum Mechanics in any form. All of the market mechanisms can be dealt with quite easily without having to analyze things on the sub-atomic level. Give me a break you total meat puppet.

The comment that one cannot predict trend is (one hopes) just ignorant. How is it that a person who supposedly has a background in "quantum problem solving" does not know about the mathematical methods for anticipating changes in local volatility. One asssumes that a person with such a background would be conversant with advanced mathematics. Surely you know how to obtain a viable estimator for an EGARCH characterization of local volatility. By all means feel free to let us know how that is done Mr. Physics.

Deadly accurate? I love that. You are able to predict market movement with "deadly accuracy".. Well we happen to have a chatroom here at ET. I agree that skilled professionals can do things that most believe impossible. What provokes me is your style. I have the feeling you are full of shit. Surely you are willing to show us just how deadly accurate you are...Monday would be a good time to display such awesome talent....and to prove me wrong.

Based on your comments, one would expect you to be the next coming of Jesus Christ. Personally I am never too proud to learn from a master such as yourself. I and others like me who orbit around you, would like to hear more about your ability to predict the market.

All the best,

Steve

Edit:

by the way, under the heading of predicting trend. I "predict" that there will be at least one tradeable trend on Monday in the ES and ER markets. That trend will in all probability start at approximately 10:05am EST. and end about 90 minutes later.

Nice to see you are bright enough to digress to name calling. When I answered your first post to me, it was a polite response and an informative one as well. I take it that you either didn't read it or didn't care.

Quantum Mechanics has nothing to do what how I trade. I mentioned I was well versed in Quantum Problem Solving in my past profession. No comparison but the one you are making. Haven't worked with applied physics in about 15 years but give me a few days and I could probably give you a refresher course if you need one. I love being taken out of context, I set up the occurrence so well. (there's another quote for you hans)

"I" don't predict price movement "I" read it. I know others that are pretty good at predicting price and make a good living trading it. I can't. Each trader is different. Each successful trader has their own personal edge. So why is one traders edge subject to ridicule and others aren't?

Because some traders edges are encompassed in the realm of normal trading and some, mine, are outside their comfort level because they do not understand how or what I do. Don't understand it . . . condemn it. A modern day witch hunt for a trading methodology. We all see the result of the first ones but as humans we rarely learn from our mistakes.

I am anything but a deity and it takes an extremely small mind to even make that comparison. I'm just an individual that discovered a not so typical way to read price movement. I trade my stuff well . . . can't trade anyone elses at all.

I repeat, I posted the date I would start my posted account journal due to personal and travel requirements. Have patience to wait or don't. I don't really care.