POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[hans37]

Quote from VictorS:

So, in private messages I asked him his thoughts on the e-minis on three different occasions. He pinpointed where the market was headed and what the market would do when it reached those price levels.Three freaking times he nailed them with price reversals. I had to investigate.



This is my last post ever on this subject defending him. Your loss not mine.

Good , So you are telling me he called the exact price of each reversal 3 times in a row for you?

If not the exact price , how far was he from the high or low?

Do you have dates and prices accurate enough for verification?(that would really be nice, but I understand if you don't, it just helps eliminate the selective memory tendencies traders have.)


Seriously I am trying to keep an open mind, and I am not slamming you, for all I know is you have made a legit generalized claim all i am asking for is more specifics.

 

[murray t turtle]

Fred;
I am not a girl, but i do like a female read.
& will address part of your primary,secondary trend [intermediate] question.

BP jr;

Interesting initials.
The primary ,& intermediate trend of the CME is up, and ;
Charlie Dow hit the bullseye on trends reversing with a series, not one bar [ or candle].
Its an Excellent probability statement and key.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from psycho-analitix:

And students have reported that the settings kept on changing. And the number of bars per day kept changing. And you moved from tick charts to volume based charts.

It would be far more believable if you could take any setting, any chart (intraday, day, week) etc, any symbol, commodity and trade that.

The fact that you need a "proprietary setting" and volume based charts means that your stuff is curvefitted and we all know that such leads to the poorhouse.

I will say that you have the gift of the gooblydegook, or as I will spell it out: you are a confidence trickster. I believe they call that in the trading world: snakeoil.

You have no first hand knowledge.
Settings only changed from Tick Charts to Volume Charts because the chart data is more accurate. Of course i can understand why YOU wouldn't want to trade with accurate data. AGAIN, no first hand knowledge.
This does work intraday, swing or position, weekly monthly daily . . . whatever in any Market; stock commodity, futues, fund . . . anything that can be tracked with a price chart.
Shows you have no first hand knowledge of what I do.
Proprietary indicator not necessary but helpful. AGAIN, no first hand knowledge.
Not at all curvefitted. Again, no first hand knowledge.
Prove it doesn't work. Lip service proves you have no clue what I do.

 

[fritz_haber]

Quote from psycho-analitix:

And students have reported that the settings kept on changing. And the number of bars per day kept changing. And you moved from tick charts to volume based charts.

It would be far more believable if you could take any setting, any chart (intraday, day, week) etc, any symbol, commodity and trade that.

The fact that you need a "proprietary setting" and volume based charts means that your stuff is curvefitted and we all know that such leads to the poorhouse.

I will say that you have the gift of the gooblydegook, or as I will spell it out: you are a confidence trickster. I believe they call that in the trading world: snakeoil.

There is an old adage - "Wenn man keine Ahnung hat, dann einfach mal die Fresse halten.". You can translate it with - "If you don't know it excactly, you better be quiet."

I will tell you the real story.

The basic concepts never changed. Period. Students who say this, have not grasped the theorie.

Years ago the Prof knew that Volume Bars are better than tick bars, but there was no software with Volume Bars at that point. So what to do? He used tick charts first, but always!!! kept telling the students that at some time in the future he will move to tick charts.

It took me almost 30 minutes before I could stop laughing about the curvefitting thing ;-). That's so wrong that I won't comment it. Only one hint, the Logic is not a black box ;-).

You can trade any market with his stuff. Period!

The methodology will work with every setting of indicators and Charts ....
The settings for the indicators are like they are, because they are finetuned to work best. Period!

That's the truth. Believe it or leave it ;-).

Happy weekend,

fritz_haber

 

[fritz_haber]

Quote from Charlie Dow:


Prove it doesn't work.

No one has ever disproved the methodology, few have tried, but failed. Others haven't tried, just applied .

Better think about it.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from Equalizer:

Really? Guess thats a matter of opinion then


Charlie Response: No it's a matter of fact. All an intelligent individual needs to do is verify it for themselves not take the word of someone with NO first hand knowledge.



Talking of misquoting, you don't even know what my ideas are, therefore you should perhaps refrain from expressing yourself through your sphincter and assuming that your mangled Dow theory is something unique and unknown, or different to what others use.



Charlie Response: I what I do is exactly what others do, PROVE IT. Prove me wrong with real data not your lip service. Should be simple for you.


read my post again, where I talk about your bollocks attitude, perhaps you might then understand what I was talking about. Perhaps I should dig up some posts from your ex-students who if memory serves described your approach as that of a bully - heaven forfend that they might question the methods of a true master on a chat site


Charlie Response: I can post from students that failed at learning any method. I can post thousands from failed Elliott, Gann, Time & Price, Fibonacci, Market Profile, and every other Method out there.


Thats right, when someone challenges you, just weasel off by saying they are not playing fair, or they are "misquoting you".


Charlie Response: Anyone bright enough to read the entire thread can make the common sense decision as to misquoting.



Enjoy your "charity work" in Germany. Drink more beer.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from Equalizer:

With all due respect downtickboy, ask yourself this question. If Mr Dow was really that good, why is taking time off with seminars in the USA, Singapore and now Germany - away from trading. Especially with Seminars in the US, he can't teach and trade at the same time.

Ahh yeah, I know, because he really cares about people and wants to spread the knowledge.

90%+ success rate over a long time... LOL

I do trade and teach. I trade at the Seminars . . . in Real Time . . . with a real feed . . . and real people.
I can teach trade and travel and the same time . . . multi tasking.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from hirsch.im.wald:

I don't get it.

Anybody who is not totally nuts knows, there cannot possibly be a ready made solution to trading. There can't be any "optimized" indicator settings to anything, by default.
This site is not kindergarten, I can't imagine a single member of Et only could ignore this.

So why does ET exist then?

Because trading is a lot of work, a lot of investigation, and sometimes you are happy to get some inspiration for new lines of research. If you have your own understanding of the market even the most stupid of ideas could bring you to something you've completely overlooked.

If you don't have your own understanding of the market, you're cannon fodder anyway and nothing will save you. No warning, no advise, no deus-ex-machina.

Charlie put out a very simple system, nothing new, instead a combination of three well known things: Dow theory, equivolume, CCI/ Detrend. Well, in my mind something snapped. I just came to see something I happened to overlook.
Now I'm going to investigate it, and I couldn't care less if Charlie is profitable at all. It's MY JOB to find out if there is any implicit edge in something I stumbled upon!
What do you expect from life guys, to get it all on a silver plate? Do you actually believe nobody on this planet is able to think for himself?

Instead of ranting around, you should better work on your own stuff. I don't like this attitude of "I know better!", "No, I know!".
In my eyes everybody coming forward with anything concrete on this forum is welcome, very welcome. I happen to be independent enough to make my conclusions...

Well stated, this is simply an environment to exchange of ideas. We all throw our ideas out there for others to take as they wish to see what helps them and what doesn't. We should treat ET as a buffett of ideas and not take what we have no interest in.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from hans37:

Holy crap you are too funny. I made a observation concerning the impression I got from of one of your posts, evidently I stepped on a nerve . At the time I honestly did not know you were a vendor of sorts, nor do I care now , although it does explain why you were so personally offended. All I do know is, I tore you a new asshole with simple logic and observations (contained in your posts thereafter to myself and others)and all you do is appear to retort with how great and educated you are.

What’s really funny is you continue down the road of looking the fool defending your illogical retorts by engaging in the appeal to authority fallacy concerning trading.


Just because you are an expert trader does not give you extra credibility as a poster .
If you continue with this approach I will continue to embarrass you as long as I find it entertaining.

Then I am at a loss.
You "tore me a asshole" regarding my logic but didn't explain where my logic was incorrect. Please show me. I take constructive criticism if I know the source is knowledgeable. If some high school kid tells me he knows more than my 3 years of college logic & problem solving and years of teaching it at a corporate level, I have a problem with that but you have experience . . . talk to me, I'm all ears.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from mhashe:

Very well put. Interesting to observe how a useful thread has degenerated into mud slinging. For those with so much negativity, lets see you post some charts. Probably won't or can't, because negativity is usually the sign of frustrated unsuccessful trader/person. Someone looking for handouts, bitter that no one will give him the "grail" indicator.

Hint: Charlies divergence works with any oscillator. All you're doing is looking for a high probabilty inflection point where market sentiment is changing. Don't even need an indicator if you concentrate on the price action/momentum. Another Hint: Markets change constantly, Different markets oscillate at different frequencies, how do you compensate for that. Answer those two questions and that's all there is to trading. The rest is your own psychological makeup.

I treat Divergence as a warning signal. It is not a reason to take a trade but a reason to exit a trade because it isn't that consistent.
I agree with you on price, I simply use an indicator to confirm price oscillations. It just makes it easier in the beginning to verify what a trader sees price doing in real-time.
You are correct that each Market oscillates in a different frequency. That frequency can be seem first by the average daily volume. I divide it by 140 to 200 to find a chart increment that is visually clear in seeing trend. Then I stick to that particular chart for the Trend chart increment for that Market whether I want to watch it in intraday, swing or position increments.