POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[hans37]

Quote from makosgu:

This is funny! How can you authoritatively dismiss it as UNSCIENTIFIC when you yourself have NOT looked at it's internal. That's like saying General Relativity is unscientific on the basis of some unscientific reasons. Doesn't make much sense... Unless you have looked into its internals, your counter argument has no merit...

Sorry did'nt mean to offend a true believer here.

I might be wrong in extrapolating his lame and obviously lack of logic in his responses to me , coupled with his penchant for snicker eliciting hubris ("Those that add to my stuff never make it either ") to indicate his methods equally flawed.

Like I said if it works for him fine.

 

[VictorS]

I have been looking at your method since the old days (before disneyworld) . I find it is definitely viable. However, I am still doing a little fine tuning to get consistent. On the daily (not intraday) ESz5, do we have failure? If not, where would failure take place.
As always, thanks for your help. I hope Et'ers dont run you off too soon.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from nicholaf:

surfer, since you are believe so strongly there are no such things as trends, how do you trade and what?

also, im' interested to hear why you think there are no trends as applied to crude oil.

surely, a macro increase in demand in oil will drive prices up.... or is this just an illusion?

also, lets visualize in maybe 50 years. we know that oil is in finite supply. and in basic economics class, when demand increases, but supply doesn't, price increases.

now, surely, the upward trend is just an illusion because the price of oil is a stochastic process.. is that what you think surfer?

hi,

thanks for the cogent reply. i am speaking primarily of stock index, not commodities. having observed tests that clearly indicate the chances of a price increase after a series of declines in the stock indexes is 10% higher than normal. this tell me that trend following in the indexes is not an ideal method. thanks to my mentor and friend VN for providing the above study.

you mention oil--i believe your concept of a finite supply ( as applied to economic relevance/trading) is fundamentally flawed. of course there is a finite supply, as there is with water and anything else on earth. new supplies are being discovered all the time, it is unknown how much oil there is and actually some scientists believe it is being created constantly.

i posted my oil trades in a public forum that i am not permitted by ET to mention, but by observing this series of trades one can deduce the way i trade.

i fade extremes of public sentiment , utilize algorythmic predictive logic programs among other methods depending on the market.

trend followers buy new highs and sell new lows---just like the public.


hope this helps

surfer

 

[hans37]

Quote from marketsurfer:



i fade extremes of public sentiment and utilize algorythmic predictive logic programs among other methods depending on the market.

trend followers buy new highs and sell new lows.
hope this helps

surfer

Fading public sentiment sounds like the best trading method around. how do you dertermine sentiment extremes?

 

[Lamont_C]

I find it interesting that Charlie Dow (PL) is scattering so many keys around gratis, and not only is no one opening any doors with them, no one is even bothering to pick them up.

And one wonders why only a handful of traders succeed . . .

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Lamont_C:

I find it interesting that Charlie Dow (PL) is scattering so many keys around gratis, and not only is no one opening any doors with them, no one is even bothering to pick them up.

And one wonders why only a handful of traders succeed . . .

Quote from Charlie Dow:

Those that add to my stuff never make it either because they dilute the consistency they were looking for in the first place.

Quote from Charlie Dow:

If you read the Trend on your Chart correctly and you enter a trade on an opposing oscillation it is impossible for the Trend to reverse immediately after entry.

Let me see if I understand all this correctly. Charlie Dow has found THE way to trade. Trade differently, and you will lose. Not only that, but trade HIS way, and it is IMPOSSIBLE for the trend to reverse immediately after entry. How...absolute.

And now you are saying that all anyone needs to do is follow the pied piper with all the discipline and resolve of a lemming?

Don't ever lose that sense of humor.

 

[Lamont_C]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Let me see if I understand all this correctly. Charlie Dow has found THE way to trade. Trade differently, and you will lose. Not only that, but trade HIS way, and it is IMPOSSIBLE for the trend to reverse immediately after entry. How...absolute.

None of which I said.

Transmit less. Receive more.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Lamont_C:

None of which I said.

Transmit less. Receive more.

Charlie Dow said it. You pointedly observed that no one is bothering to pick up these "keys" that he is dropping to open some kind of trading "doors," observing that so few traders seem to succeed as a result.

How's that for reception?

 

[makosgu]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Let me see if I understand all this correctly. Charlie Dow has found THE way to trade.

MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT! Having looked at the internals it is a single consistent way, no claims of being THE way!

Trade differently, and you will lose.

MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT! If you adopt what he has done and alter things, you risk compromising the consistency it was specifically built for...

Not only that, but trade HIS way, and it is IMPOSSIBLE for the trend to reverse immediately after entry. How...absolute.

MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT! The insight is that any oscillation cannot simultaneously be both a TOP and BOTTOM...

And now you are saying that all anyone needs to do is follow the pied piper with all the discipline and resolve of a lemming?

To each his own. We all choose our own paths. Some come with a map...

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from makosgu:

MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT!

MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT!

MISQUOTED and OUT OF CONTEXT!

You may not agree with my conclusions, but I did not misquote a single word. Kindly review the posts.