POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[nicholaf]

Quote from hans37:

With all of that opening your mind you are doing just be sure your brain doesn't slosh out.

Hey as long as YOU are comfortable with your method great, just don't try to pass it off as scientific .What I find really amusing was "Those that add to my stuff never make it either " uh huh ,as if the market punishes those who don't share your belief or modify it's use .


ooh BEWARE we have a trading demigod, ohh don't ruffle his feathers.

now where's my rabbits foot?

actually, after reading his post i would have to disagree. his research looks very much like baynesian prob. nice

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from nicholaf:

actually, after reading his post i would have to disagree. his research looks very much like baynesian prob. nice

Thanks, he probably thinks that's a kind of mustard.

Here is a crude oil chart to help you out with your question to surf. This is the Trend Chart of the Process.

 

[Lights]

trends exist. so get a life, NERDS.

 

[doublea]

Put a chart on the wall and ask an eight year old if he/she thinks it is going up , down or nowhere. You'll know the trend. If it was good for PTJ, it's good for me.

 

[downtickboy]

Quote from Charlie Dow:

Great question!

I won't go back over the rudimentary stuff i watch, you can read tht earlier in this thread. I will take you from that point to the next step though.

Trading in that fixed environment is a 4 step process.

(Price oscillations are determined strictly by Price but verified by a single momentum indicator. The key is to trade price and NOT be lulled into trying to trade the indicator. That will kill you)

1. Read Primary Market Trend (On Trend Chart) - This is either Bull, Bear or Consolidation transitioning from one to the other. Each is easily read in Real-time because the Prime oscillations are very slow in being created and confirmed.

2.Read where Price is "Coming From" in the above Trend or Consolidation, i.e. From Prime Resistance (Creating Prime Resistance) or From Prime Support (Creating Prime Support)

Once read these two points give you the strength of the Trend and only TREND! These are read from a specific Trend Chart increment. Bull or Bear or Consolidation (coming from a Bull or Bear) & Price coming UP from Prime Support or DOWN from Prime Resistance. Here is where you need to "THINK".

a. Bull/Price UP from Prime Support (HL) - STRONG BUY
b. Bull/Price UP from Prime Support (LL) - WEAK BUY
c. Bull/Price DOWN from Prime Resistance (HH) - WEAK SELL
d. Bull/Price DOWN from Prime Resistance (LH) - STRONG SELL but must Breach last Prime Support or Consolidation is verified.
e. Bear/Price UP from Prime Support (HL) - STRONG BUY but must Breach last Prime Resistance or Consolidation is verified.
f. Bear/Price UP from Prime Support (LL) - WEAK BUY
g. Bear/Price DOWN from Prime Resistance (HH) - WEAK SELL
h. Bear/Price DOWN from Prime Resistance (LH) - STRONG SELL

Now that you have determined the current strength of Price in the Trend, we prepare for entry on are Trading Chart. The Trading Chart is a perfect part of the incremental whole of the Trend Chart.

3. Read Price so that you prepare to execute a trade at a Prime level on your Trading Chart in the Direction of Strength on your Trend Chart. As you can see listed above that is only going to be at one of 4 specific points in the Trend.

4. On the momentum pullback (in the opposite direction of the trade you are about to take, watch price create a bottom or top and then a (Failure to make a Price ONLY HH or LL) in the direction of strength. Execute your trade and place an immediate stop one tick above or below you entry Trading Chart Support or Resistance level.

4a. The ultra-conservative trade would be to allow price to oscillate one time after the Prime Oscillation on your trading chart where that oscillation creates a HL or LH to execute a trade from.

Remember this is all taking place in a strictly viewed chart increment environment so the clarity of the oscillations both at Prime and Minor levels is critical.

It's late here . . . please bear with me. I hope I included it all.

Thanks for the reply. So in a simplified example of the way you look at the market, if you assess the market is in a bull trend phase on your trend chart then you are looking for a conservative entry on your trading chart. So at this point you are looking for a spot to buy. IF you are more conservative you are looking at buying at an extreme level on a momentum indicator oscillation that is making a HL (you call them Prime levels). If you are more aggressive you are looking to buy on non-extreme momentum indicator oscillations down. So to pinpoint and time when you actually enter the market you are looking for just PRICE within these momentum indicator down oscillations to also eventually make a higher low (HL) breaking the cycle of LH and LL PRICE movements within the momentum move down.

So from macro to micro you are looking at bull trend on trend chart to bull trend on trading chart to an extreme oscillation down that makes a HL to PRICE making a HL breaking the PRICE movement pattern of LH and LL within the oscillation down to Entry price.

Please let me know if I am understanding correctly?

 

[makosgu]

Quote from hans37:

With all of that opening your mind you are doing just be sure your brain doesn't slosh out.

Hey as long as YOU are comfortable with your method great, just don't try to pass it off as scientific.What I find really amusing was "Those that add to my stuff never make it either " uh huh ,as if the market punishes those who don't share your belief or modify it's use .


ooh BEWARE we have a trading demigod, ohh don't ruffle his feathers.

now where's my rabbits foot?

This is funny! How can you authoritatively dismiss it as UNSCIENTIFIC when you yourself have NOT looked at it's internal. That's like saying General Relativity is unscientific on the basis of some unscientific reasons. Doesn't make much sense... Unless you have looked into its internals, your counter argument has no merit...

 

[makosgu]

Quote from Charlie Dow:

Thanks, he probably thinks that's a kind of mustard.

Here is a crude oil chart to help you out with your question to surf. This is the Trend Chart of the Process.

Heading towards low tide... The advance and retreats are pristine here... Arrows, sticks in the sand, same thing.... NEAT!

 

[hirsch.im.wald]

Quote from nicholaf:

baynesian prob

Do i assume right, you are talking about Bayesian probability? I wonder what the epistemic probability distribution is of there being a "baynesian mustard"...

I like the oil chart.

But I would be interested in where you would actually enter.
As far as I can see, after the first confirmation down (the one printed in blue, not the consolidation/ confirmation), there is another feeble attempt to consolidate, which subsequently fails. That would leave me to enter after the second confirmation down, with the magnitude of oscillations already receding.

Did I miss something?

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from downtickboy:

Thanks for the reply. So in a simplified example of the way you look at the market, if you assess the market is in a bull trend phase on your trend chart then you are looking for a conservative entry on your trading chart. So at this point you are looking for a spot to buy. IF you are more conservative you are looking at buying at an extreme level on a momentum indicator oscillation that is making a HL (you call them Prime levels). If you are more aggressive you are looking to buy on non-extreme momentum indicator oscillations down. So to pinpoint and time when you actually enter the market you are looking for just PRICE within these momentum indicator down oscillations to also eventually make a higher low (HL) breaking the cycle of LH and LL PRICE movements within the momentum move down.

So from macro to micro you are looking at bull trend on trend chart to bull trend on trading chart to an extreme oscillation down that makes a HL to PRICE making a HL breaking the PRICE movement pattern of LH and LL within the oscillation down to Entry price.

Please let me know if I am understanding correctly?

My response was when I should have been asleep and my answer is when I'm waking up but yes. Remember again that ridged Chart increment environment makes reading this a lot simplier.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from hirsch.im.wald:

Do i assume right, you are talking about Bayesian probability? I wonder what the epistemic probability distribution is of there being a "baynesian mustard"...

I like the oil chart.

But I would be interested in where you would actually enter.
As far as I can see, after the first confirmation down (the one printed in blue, not the consolidation/ confirmation), there is another feeble attempt to consolidate, which subsequently fails. That would leave me to enter after the second confirmation down, with the magnitude of oscillations already receding.

Did I miss something?

No, what I do isn't Bayesian probability but it is closer tham mumbo jumbo BS.

There is no entry on this chart. As I stated when I posted it, it is the Trend Chart. I posted the same chart showing where the enteries, exits and reversals would have been executed from the corresponding Trading Chart. As far as the Consolidation goes, read price, follow your momentun indicator for verification ONLY and again . . . you don't trade this chart.