POLL - Futures: How do you determine the trend?

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from Thunderdog:

That's all well and good. I just take exception to terms such as "impossible," "never" and the like. If it were "impossible" for the market to go against me upon my entry, then I would trade size like you wouldn't believe! I would immediately be able to take partial profits, and ride the rest of the trend for what it was worth. If that trend ended soon after, I would only have my partial profit. The point is, that I would "never" have an actual loss because it was "impossible" for the market to go immediately against me. Unfortunately, never having a loss conflicts with the world that I live in.

I said the Market will ALWAYS move frorm Support to Resistance and from Resistance to Support. If you KNOW the Primary Trend of the Market you are trading & where the Market is coming from (either the extreme top or extreme bottom) then you read the strength of the Market and take trades from the points of greatest strength to limit risk. If you enter a trade and price starts to consolidate, the Market will give you an exit which sometimes will be either break even or a small loss. No one wins all the time. The Market trends (in my environment) about 90% of the time and consolidates about 10%. If you can read that consolidation immediately then you again can limit the risk of any losing trade to a very small amount. We just stand aside to wait for another entry from a position of strength.

Your other statemnt say a lot. That is, "If it were "impossible" for the market to go against me upon my entry, then I would trade size like you wouldn't believe! I would immediately be able to take partial profits, and ride the rest of the trend for what it was worth. " If you could consistently read trend and price, trading huge size is unnecessary and so is scaling out of trades. Greed is the other reason I don't argue with people anymore to "come over to the Logic . . . lol". I could care less.

I hear it all the time. Wow, if this works I could trade 10 different Markets and make a bazillion dollars a day. Is that a responsible attitude? If you say sure, then you need help.

It's ironic but for some reason greedy people can't seem to grasp the simplicity of this. I'll have to stew on that thought for a while.

 

[TGregg]

I check the trading boards and count the topping and bottoming threads.

 

[Thunderdog]

Charlie Dow,

With due respect, you sound like a vendor. Forgive me, but I am not buying. A thread that began as an exchange of ideas suddenly reads like a marketing flyer. No thank you.

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Charlie Dow,

With due respect, you sound like a vendor. Forgive me, but I am not buying. A thread that began as an exchange of ideas suddenly reads like a marketing flyer. No thank you.

I appreciate the respect, cause I'm not selling you nothin!

This is an open forum for ideas. I share mine. Those who have asked me questions in the past, know I readily answer.

You are welcome to ask me questions and I will always answer to the best of my ability.

I like coming in here to plant seeds. The industrious traders pick my brain and run off to cultivate them. Like I said to surfer, I just point out the consistencies the Market offers you, it's up to you to validate them or ignore them. I could care less whether you trade them. I'm not going to argue with you like I find it futile to argue with Price. I will defend myself though.

 

[hans37]

Charlie you may trade and make good money but your reasons all sound like mumbo jumbo BS , isn't that the beauty of the market?


Something tells me you have real problems with facing ambiguity, doesn't that lead to the development of neurosis and ritual as compensation( to rigidly control one's environment).


Btw just because you box an open system into one you consider closed, does not alter the underlying characteristics of the market.
(just thought you might like to know)

 

[downtickboy]

Quote from Charlie Dow:

I repeat, when you wish to get off your laurels and make an honest attempt to either verify or refute what I do then you will be qualified to say anything you want and I will respect it. Until then you are just another "reporter" incapable, due to lack of gumption, to verify your sources and the content of your dribble.

Explain why traders all over the world that use my stuff see the EXACT same tops & bottoms in every Market they trade and they all trade independently? The same extreme tops & bottoms and the same non-extreme tops & bottoms. The best of them see the same entry and exit points as well. It's consistency, something most traders rarely see. The reason is the environment.

I wrote this on another thread but it must have been over looked. I thought I would re post it here to see if I could get a response since we the thread is back on this subject.

I think the difficulty exists in defining when to enter a trend as they are being created in real time. How do you go about timing your entry in real time as these tops and bottoms are forming compared to just reading what price has done in the past and saying I should have bought "there"? Can you accurately define in an objective manner in real time where "there" is?

I know of several different ways people go about defining a trend but the key is to how and WHEN to get aboard the trend move without losing your butt in the process of positioning yourself correctly. The idea of trading retracements/pullback in the trend, 123 reversals, ect is old hat but I think a lot of traders know these ideas but fail in defining when to enter the market thus the use of fibs, momentum indicators, ect for timing. Whether true of not I have read somewhere that the majority of traders can pick the right direction of a market move but can't pick a low risk entry spot to get into the market. So then timing becomes the issue that separates those that make money or lose money while trading in the correct direction of the trend move.

I think this is especially true in intraday trading where there is a smaller margin of error allowed. A trader could have properly defined and read the trend correctly using your method or another method, so they know they want to go long as the overall trend is up. However the next oscillation down (pullback) where they want to look to go long can be 2 pt, 4pts, 6 pts, ect before it finally comes to the actual low of the oscillation with many random 1 point spikes up in this move down. Now since you can only really define the low or this oscillation/support after it has occurred then how do you objectively pick an entry spot? If it was really objective then everyone should see this spot at the same time in real time right and not just read the trend is continuing once price is 3 pts higher from the low of the pullback?

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from hans37:

Charlie you may trade and make good money but your reasons all sound like mumbo jumbo BS , isn't that the beauty of the market?


Something tells me you have real problems with facing ambiguity, doesn't that lead to the development of neurosis and ritual as compensation( to rigidly control one's environment).


Btw just because you box an open system into one you consider closed, does not alter the underlying characteristics of the market.
(just thought you might like to know)

I for one would like to say, it's been a real pleasure allowing us to see inside your brain for a short time.

I learned that ET has a wonderful iggy button to filter out those who have nothing constructive to offer the rest of us.

Great Trading to you and may, at some point in your life, your mind open up to all the endless possibilities awaiting you.

 

[hans37]

Quote from Charlie Dow:

I for one would like to say, it's been a real pleasure allowing us to see inside your brain for a short time.

I learned that ET has a wonderful iggy button to filter out those who have nothing constructive to offer the rest of us.

Great Trading to you and may, at some point in your life, your mind open up to all the endless possibilities awaiting you.

With all of that opening your mind you are doing just be sure your brain doesn't slosh out.

Hey as long as YOU are comfortable with your method great, just don't try to pass it off as scientific .What I find really amusing was "Those that add to my stuff never make it either " uh huh ,as if the market punishes those who don't share your belief or modify it's use .


ooh BEWARE we have a trading demigod, ohh don't ruffle his feathers.

now where's my rabbits foot?

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from downtickboy:

I wrote this on another thread but it must have been over looked. I thought I would re post it here to see if I could get a response since we the thread is back on this subject.

I think the difficulty exists in defining when to enter a trend as they are being created in real time. How do you go about timing your entry in real time as these tops and bottoms are forming compared to just reading what price has done in the past and saying I should have bought "there"? Can you accurately define in an objective manner in real time where "there" is?

I know of several different ways people go about defining a trend but the key is to how and WHEN to get aboard the trend move without losing your butt in the process of positioning yourself correctly. The idea of trading retracements/pullback in the trend, 123 reversals, ect is old hat but I think a lot of traders know these ideas but fail in defining when to enter the market thus the use of fibs, momentum indicators, ect for timing. Whether true of not I have read somewhere that the majority of traders can pick the right direction of a market move but can't pick a low risk entry spot to get into the market. So then timing becomes the issue that separates those that make money or lose money while trading in the correct direction of the trend move.

I think this is especially true in intraday trading where there is a smaller margin of error allowed. A trader could have properly defined and read the trend correctly using your method or another method, so they know they want to go long as the overall trend is up. However the next oscillation down (pullback) where they want to look to go long can be 2 pt, 4pts, 6 pts, ect before it finally comes to the actual low of the oscillation with many random 1 point spikes up in this move down. Now since you can only really define the low or this oscillation/support after it has occurred then how do you objectively pick an entry spot? If it was really objective then everyone should see this spot at the same time in real time right and not just read the trend is continuing once price is 3 pts higher from the low of the pullback?

Great question!

I won't go back over the rudimentary stuff i watch, you can read tht earlier in this thread. I will take you from that point to the next step though.

Trading in that fixed environment is a 4 step process.

(Price oscillations are determined strictly by Price but verified by a single momentum indicator. The key is to trade price and NOT be lulled into trying to trade the indicator. That will kill you)

1. Read Primary Market Trend (On Trend Chart) - This is either Bull, Bear or Consolidation transitioning from one to the other. Each is easily read in Real-time because the Prime oscillations are very slow in being created and confirmed.

2.Read where Price is "Coming From" in the above Trend or Consolidation, i.e. From Prime Resistance (Creating Prime Resistance) or From Prime Support (Creating Prime Support)

Once read these two points give you the strength of the Trend and only TREND! These are read from a specific Trend Chart increment. Bull or Bear or Consolidation (coming from a Bull or Bear) & Price coming UP from Prime Support or DOWN from Prime Resistance. Here is where you need to "THINK".

a. Bull/Price UP from Prime Support (HL) - STRONG BUY
b. Bull/Price UP from Prime Support (LL) - WEAK BUY
c. Bull/Price DOWN from Prime Resistance (HH) - WEAK SELL
d. Bull/Price DOWN from Prime Resistance (LH) - STRONG SELL but must Breach last Prime Support or Consolidation is verified.
e. Bear/Price UP from Prime Support (HL) - STRONG BUY but must Breach last Prime Resistance or Consolidation is verified.
f. Bear/Price UP from Prime Support (LL) - WEAK BUY
g. Bear/Price DOWN from Prime Resistance (HH) - WEAK SELL
h. Bear/Price DOWN from Prime Resistance (LH) - STRONG SELL

Now that you have determined the current strength of Price in the Trend, we prepare for entry on are Trading Chart. The Trading Chart is a perfect part of the incremental whole of the Trend Chart.

3. Read Price so that you prepare to execute a trade at a Prime level on your Trading Chart in the Direction of Strength on your Trend Chart. As you can see listed above that is only going to be at one of 4 specific points in the Trend.

4. On the momentum pullback (in the opposite direction of the trade you are about to take, watch price create a bottom or top and then a (Failure to make a Price ONLY HH or LL) in the direction of strength. Execute your trade and place an immediate stop one tick above or below you entry Trading Chart Support or Resistance level.

4a. The ultra-conservative trade would be to allow price to oscillate one time after the Prime Oscillation on your trading chart where that oscillation creates a HL or LH to execute a trade from.

Remember this is all taking place in a strictly viewed chart increment environment so the clarity of the oscillations both at Prime and Minor levels is critical.

It's late here . . . please bear with me. I hope I included it all.

 

[nicholaf]

surfer, since you are believe so strongly there are no such things as trends, how do you trade and what?

also, im' interested to hear why you think there are no trends as applied to crude oil.

surely, a macro increase in demand in oil will drive prices up.... or is this just an illusion?

also, lets visualize in maybe 50 years. we know that oil is in finite supply. and in basic economics class, when demand increases, but supply doesn't, price increases.

now, surely, the upward trend is just an illusion because the price of oil is a stochastic process.. is that what you think surfer?