Poll Farce: Pew Oversamples Democrats

AK Forty Seven · Aug 4, 2012

Quote from jem:

pollsters tell us none of this matters until after the conventions.

2008 polls before the conventions .I understand that if your guy is losing you dont want it to matter though

Max E. · Aug 4, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Just because Rasmussen shit polls dont have the eventual winner ahead before the conventions or later doesn't mean others polls dont have value before then

Actually i foudn a Rasmussen poll that showed Obama up by 7 a full year before the last election, therefor rasmussen is the most accurate poll......

Do you understand the concept of a fluid market?

No one said they dont have value, they do have value, they show exactly where people stand TODAY.

AK Forty Seven · Aug 4, 2012

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Actually i foudn a Rasmussen poll that showed Obama up by 7 a full year before the last election, therefor rasmussen is the most accurate poll......

How many times did they have McCain ahead though ? From March to election day Pew and NBC/WSJ never had McCain ahead

Max E. · Aug 4, 2012

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

How many times did they have McCain ahead though ? From March to election day Pew and NBC/WSJ never had McCain ahead

LOL, you know i always used to get annoyed at the fact that every single trading product you pay for whether its a charting service or or something that triggers alert, has a disclaimer saying:

"Past performance is not not indicate future results"

I used to think to myself, "what kind of person do they have to put that on there for, who does not understand that"

I finally figured it out.....

AK Forty Seven · Aug 4, 2012

Quote from Max E. Pad:

LOL, you know i always used to get annoyed at the fact that every single trading product you pay for whether its a charting service or or something that triggers alert, has a disclaimer saying:

"Past performance does not indicate future results"

I used to think to myself, "what kind of person do they even have to put that on there for, who does not understand that"

I finally figured it out.....

Well if I'm trying to decide on whether to give my money to Paul Tuder Jones or a guy who blew out all of his prior funds I will take past performance into consideration

If I'm trying to decide on whether to draft Luck or a guy who threw 100 interceptions the last 3 seasons I will take past performance into consideration

When deciding which polls are most accurate I will take past performance into consideration

AK Forty Seven · Aug 6, 2012

Quote from jem:

How about 5 elections. 6 months out.

I don't think most of the current pollsters existed 5 presidential elections ago.Pew started in 2004

Yannis · Aug 6, 2012

The Real Poll Numbers
By DickMorris

The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.

On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.

Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he'll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.

To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he's down by only one.

If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less - Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey -- he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama's 363 vote tally in 2008.

The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.

So don't believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That's the real story.

AK Forty Seven · Aug 6, 2012

Quote from Yannis:

The Real Poll Numbers
By DickMorris

The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.

On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.

Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he'll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.

To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he's down by only one.

If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less - Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey -- he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama's 363 vote tally in 2008.

The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.

So don't believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That's the real story.

Hilary will win the nomination

http://www.dickmorris.com/how-clinton-will-win-the-nomination-by-losing-south-carolina/

Yannis · Aug 7, 2012

Well, you know, pobody's nerfect...

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