Poll: Comey’s bombshell changes few votes

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-emails-comey-poll-politico-morning-consult-230519


Poll: Comey’s bombshell changes few votes
By Jake Sherman

10/31/16 07:07 AM EDT

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The race for the White House is tight, but it has not been radically changed by the FBI director's bombshell announcement last week.

Hillary Clinton has a slim three-point lead over Donald Trump one week before Election Day, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted entirely after FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of new emails that might pertain to the former secretary of state's private server.


Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 43 percent in a two-way race, and 42 percent to 39 percent in a four-way race, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 5 percent.

The poll was conducted using an online panel of 1,772 likely voters on Saturday and Sunday, beginning one day after Comey's announcement. The poll carries a margin or error of 2 percentage points.

In a separate poll conducted before Comey's disclosure, Clinton was leading by three points in the four-way race, and five points in the two-way race. Put simply, there is not yet evidence that the revelations have drastically altered the contours of the election.

Thirty-nine percent of voters said the additional review of emails in the Clinton case had no bearing on their vote in November, while 33 percent it made them much less likely to vote for Clinton.

But most of those voters are already aligned against Clinton. Nearly two-thirds of Trump voters, 66 percent, said it makes them much less likely to vote against Clinton.

Among the small pocket of undecided voters remaining, 42 percent said it made them less likely to vote for Clinton, including 30 percent who said it made them much less likely to vote for her. But just as many, 41 percent, said it makes no difference either way.

"It is unlikely that there will be a dramatic shift in the polls before Election Day," said Morning Consult cofounder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp. "While Friday's news may be considered an 'October Surprise,' it doesn't seem to be moving the needle as of now."


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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-poll-shows-latest-hillary-213327867.html

Another Poll Shows the Latest Hillary Clinton Email News Hasn’t Hurt Her Lead

Mahita Gajanan
FortuneOctober 31, 2016


Hillary Clinton maintained her lead over Donald Trump despite FBI Director James Comey’s announcement last week about the discovery of additional emails related to Clinton’s use of a private email server, according to the latest NBC News/Survey Monkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll.

The poll finds that Clinton has kept her 6-point lead over Trump, which she held in the days before Comey’s announcement. The poll, conducted online from Oct. 24 through Oct. 30, included questions about Comey’s announcement on Oct. 29 and Oct. 30. According to data from Saturday and Sunday -- after the announcement -- Clinton’s lead stayed the same at 47% to 41%.

Comey on Friday said the FBI would review the additional emails for classified information that may be related to the bureau’s Clinton email investigation. The emails were discovered as part of an unrelated investigation into former Congressman Anthony Weiner, the estranged husband of Clinton aide Huma Abedin, who allegedly sent sexually explicit photos to a minor.

The announcement has shaken the Clinton campaign, as the Democratic nominee and campaign officials have called on the FBI to release more details.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted on Saturday and Sunday also found that Comey’s announcement had little impact on the race. In that poll, Clinton has a three-point lead over Trump, with 46% to 43% in a two-way race.

The NBC/Survey Monkey poll results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.0 percentage points. The Politico/Morning Consult poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
 
Given a 1/1 risk reward ratio, and the advice above, shouldn't you now be willing to put money down on a bet for Hiliarly?
 
Given a 1/1 risk reward ratio, and the advice above, shouldn't you now be willing to put money down on a bet for Hiliarly?


Currently you have to bet around 75 to win 25,that is not 1/1.I'm was hoping there would be enough suckers who think Trump has a 50-50 chance or better at winning but I don't think its going to happen.
 
Currently you have to bet around 75 to win 25,that is not 1/1.I'm was hoping there would be enough suckers who think Trump has a 50-50 chance or better at winning but I don't think its going to happen.

I've explained in the prior thread (before you started these two new threads) how your risk to reward is 1/1...given true odds.

That's why I'm still wondering how come you haven't backed up all your advice/predictions with any of your own money?


Here's where I explained it:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/trump-opens-up-16-point-lead-with-independents.304009/page-3
 
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/reute...percentage-point-lead-over-trump-201611010312

NEWS | 03:12 GMT
Reuters/Ipsos poll: Clinton holds a 5 percentage point lead over Trump


According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Monday, votes in favor of Hillary Clinton outpaced that for her rival Donald Trump by a five percentage point, i.e., down only slightly since the FBI said last week it was reviewing new emails in its investigation of the former secretary of state.

Key findings of the survey:

“Some 44 percent of likely voters said they would support Clinton, while 39 percent said they would support Trump, according to the Oct. 26-30 survey.”

“Clinton had held a 6 point advantage over Trump in the five-day tracking poll last Thursday.”

“Clinton leads Trump in both high and low turnout scenarios”

“Her advantage holds at 5 points if 55 percent of eligible voters participate, and it rises to 6 points if 70 percent of Americans cast a ballot.”
 
When I can bet 1 to win 1 or better,I will.

So you are hoping more people will bet on Trump so the bookies odds approach more of a 1:1 payout.

Meanwhile, since you are sure Hildebeast's real chances are more like 75/25% that would be more of a slam dunk...or at least better than flipping a coin?

And that's the bet you would take?
 
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