POLL: Are you troubled more by losing trades or decent moves missed by your method?

[spd]

For me scratch trades piss me off the most. I just get this DUHHHHH feeling that washes over me. Maybe Im wierd.

 

[NYCMB]

Hi Jack

I have questions regarding Bar 38 and Bar 39, ES 28JAN10

a) Top end of Bar 39 is higher than the top end of Bar 38; Bar 39 is also XB. Why did you mark Bar 38 as p2 ? Is it because Bar 39 decreasing volume? Or because the close of Bar 39 is inside Bar 38 and lower than the close of Bar 38?

b) Does "having p2 be outside the RTL" require a p2 bar to be totally outside the RTL? Is it acceptable that "only the close" of p2 is outside the RTL? TIA

 

[Gabfly1]

Quote from bellman:

...However, if you meant to ask the question with respect to any move that is NOT within the realm of one's system (as I understand your intent to be), then your question is nonsensical, as any move that occurs outside the realm of one's system is neither a loss nor a proffit, but neutral by definition.

I think the question is only "nonsensical" if you feel that you have reached the height of trading efficacy and that there is no additional room for improvement in your trading. You don't necessarily have to obsess about either moves not within the realm of the system or actual losses incurred in order to recognize that there may be room for improvement one way or the other. I don't need to be told that losses are a part of doing business or that no matter how good a trading method may be, it will not capture every meaningful move. But neither do I need to remain complacent by believing that what I presently have is as good as it will ever get. I suppose I just thought others may have felt the same way.

 

[shitzfagiggles]

Quote from jack hershey:



A while back I had to post, a day ahead of time, the next 17 to 20 trades and post the timing of the end of a channel within 5 to 7 minutes in response to a crock (pottery) that traderzones posted to depict me in his opinion. All those trades happened as I stated and the channel ended when I suggested it would. For me, it is like filling in a log a day ahead of time.

Except you've never made a cent Jack and can't provide a track record.. in fact the only time you've gone on record was to lose 24% in a trading contest you didn't have the integrity to finish, you don't trade.. you just sit around all day making grandiose statements you've never been able to live up to

 

[GG1972]

Quote from spd:

For me scratch trades piss me off the most. I just get this DUHHHHH feeling that washes over me. Maybe Im wierd.

+1.


That and you get choice between 2 stocks and you pick"better" setup only to find the one u didn't pick was the runner.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from NYCMB:

Hi Jack

I have questions regarding Bar 38 and Bar 39, ES 28JAN10

a) Top end of Bar 39 is higher than the top end of Bar 38; Bar 39 is also XB. Why did you mark Bar 38 as p2 ? Is it because Bar 39 decreasing volume? Or because the close of Bar 39 is inside Bar 38 and lower than the close of Bar 38?

For me, I build BBT's out of subs. The other aspect of building with these moves is that there are no small rules involved. It just flows. Attached is a closer look at the subs invloved. sub 1 passed through a rtl on a sub 3 in the prior formation as pat of what followed bar 36. Bar 37 is "outside" of the rtl by quite an amount of time as it moves in the dominant direction on a b2b as sub 1 long.

For trading to take the offer consider this a 9 or 10 tick situation over 10 to 15 minutes; in other words, for 500 bucks a tick during a sub trade you are focused on annotating the sub. Since bar 38 is an OB B is almost the end of a long hold and could be point 2 of the BBT 1 coming out of a short tape. Bar 39 enhances the hold and you sqeak a little more by doing a beginner BO on the rtl as the WAll holds on the DOM.

You ride 39 to the hershey hinge and nail in the point 3 on the sub 3a going to the sub 3b. As price slips from one two pair dominance to the other on the OTR chart (which has the sub 3a annotated on it) you go with the flow coming off the Wall on the DOM early in bar 40. Another 500 bucks is bagged, roughly.

Near the end of 40, you have another 500 bucks and a stitch BLACK. A pair shift black from close to open on 41 and a X B is under way into a VE on the BBT 1. AS SOON AS you break the top of bar 40 with price on 41 you put in the RTL accelerated suing the bottom of both bars and mote another 500 bucks on the platform. You are up 2 grand bar way through bar 41. If anything add a contract so you make another 50 bucks a point; why bother to go to the other mouse, though.

Notice, I do not think about what you type. I am not annotating the subs since thy are just flowing. Also I am "reading this stuff in a finer way on YM LEADING ES when ends of continues are happening.

You may notice there is no sub 2 annotated. We had a BO bar so it is over on the YM and the OTR and the S/S and the DOM to see there.

MADA works this way. You take "sufficient" data sets (6 or 7 items) that all say CERTAINTY. All are binary vectors in nature and there is ZERO PROBABILITY involved. And there are no small rules spraying themsleves all over the place causing anxiety, fear and anger, the watchwords of CW bullshit trading.

When you come around an end of a short tape and begin a long tape in a Depression just after an inverted saucer formation has finished by dropping off a cliff, you deal yourself 2 grand in three trades and a hold into and accerated BTT 1.

If you look at bars 38 and 40 compared to where you are on bar 52 and the take three more rides to bar 81 for the day, oyur piggy bank is going to be full for the day. read Hello's thrad were he makes 300k in a year and gives it back for some reason. Look at wutang compliment him on starting over and being as smart a talontrading's never been seen before Level II wall crumbling hot stuff.

DO NOT JUMP FRACTALS as all these guys (above mentioned) do ALL the TIME!!! Use building blocks on the ES and let the YM coach you one fractal faster.

b) Does "having p2 be outside the RTL" require a p2 bar to be totally outside the RTL? Is it acceptable that "only the close" of p2 is outside the RTL?

All of bar 37 was outside of the rtl on sub 1 of the BBT 1 that contained bars 38 and 39 above. You didn't even see sub 2 or anything about it (where was pt2 of sub 2?): sub 3 got sooooo hot, we had trouble keeping up with the moiney being made.

The conclusion is, this stuff dosn't work at all in any way whatsoever. Or you can conclude to stop trying to make and invent rules and just do MADA and a thorough annotating routine where volume leads price in one pattern and only one pattern, all by deduction. What happens is after a while is that your mind goes from one crude state to another whereby you feel supported, comfortable and confident.

You will get, once my computers are happy with each other, a video made this am over nearly four hours where the first portion of Friday is discussed through several aha's. The day did three such laps. the video is entitled 101 dalmations, which stands for the first 101 lines drawn.

You didn't draw the lines on the attachment I made. You made up a lot of small somethings with curlies at the ends.

Let me give you an example. For years, a nut here thinks he tested something he read. He didn't and repeats over an over that he did something he did not do. Will he learn to make money trading stocks? Who knows. But one thing is for sure. If he keeps thinking what he does, it could affect other judgements he makes about other things. He is in a bull retrace of a depression right now, for example. Who cares?

For you, Irene, the deal is to use thorough annotation and MADA to always know that you know. If you do not know, read your log, check your annotations on YM and ES. What you will find there is lines on adjacent bars and the 9 cases of two adjacent bars. All pairs of bars that count as one bar have yellow guts in their wrappers (boxes that contain the bars).

Go for thorough annotations and volume leading price and the pattern. Do MADA to reach closure each lap of MADA. This means you always know that you know.

This is fun and running just 20 contracts gives those 500 dollar pops for each sub except for the ones that just keep having X's bar after bar. Don't add contracts, just hang at 20 for a wekk or so then sweep excess profits on Friday and buy a new car on Saturdays. Create new jobs on Fridays. Speed it to solve local problems. TIA

 

[Aitch Eff Tee]

Quote from Gabfly1:

I think the question is only "nonsensical" if you feel that you have reached the height of trading efficacy and that there is no additional room for improvement in your trading. You don't necessarily have to obsess about either moves not within the realm of the system or actual losses incurred in order to recognize that there may be room for improvement one way or the other. I don't need to be told that losses are a part of doing business or that no matter how good a trading method may be, it will not capture every meaningful move. But neither do I need to remain complacent by believing that what I presently have is as good as it will ever get. I suppose I just thought others may have felt the same way.

You seem to be missing the point. Nobody is saying they have a perfect system that can't be improved. They are saying that it's pointless to differentiate between the two choices you offer in your poll.

Good to see Jack, ET's resident master of brevity, has decided to rock up though. That should help keep things on topic.

 

[Gabfly1]

Quote from Aitch Eff Tee:

You seem to be missing the point. Nobody is saying they have a perfect system that can't be improved. They are saying that it's pointless to differentiate between the two choices you offer in your poll...

Perhaps "they" are right. However, I'm inclined to believe that the two issues are related in that, all else being equal, one is traded off against the other. And so, in the context of your post, the question becomes one of balance unless a new level of efficacy is reached. I suppose in that context, the question becomes two-fold, although I had not originally conceived it that way. First, are you satisfied with your trading strategy's losing trade vs. missed move tradeoff? And, second, if you were to improve your method, would it be more along the lines of trying to catch more moves, or filtering out more losing setups. In the first part of the question, all else is considered equal, whereas in the second, and originally conceived context, it is not. Either way, I think this thread is largely done.

 

[Index Maximus]

J Hershey's stuff is fantastically profitable. Its so good he forces himself to "play it cool" and to live modestly by staying at his girlfriend's house. ( Who happens to work.) All the rest goes to charity. He is the real SHIT !!!! Dig it man.

 

[Gabfly1]

*Sigh*

There goes the neighborhood.