Speaking only for myself, I think that "reeks" is an excellent choice of words for the topic under discussion.
POLL: Are Fibonacci numbers a worthless or expensive crutch when it comes to trading?
- Thread starter Thunderdog
- Start date
Quote from Thunderdog:
...the reason I take exception to Fibonacci is that it lacks even the most basic theoretical premise (universal governing laws notwithstanding). Heck, you might even be able to make do with astrological predictions provided that you buy higher lows, sell lower highs and cut your losses short. All you then have to do is remove the astrological component to please Occam.
If you have ever been a floor trader on a commodities exchange, you would be well aware that PIVOTS do indeed work, and that FIBS ( such as .382, .500, and .618 ) work as well.
They are part of several technical tools used by TRADERS.
My guess is that you most likely don't use any technical tools at all.
You simply cast such tools off as "astrological". How convenient.
Again, given your laziness to provide a statistical argument to the contrary, I would once again suggest that this thread is a complete waste of time.
Good Luck to you.
They are part of several technical tools used by TRADERS.
My guess is that you most likely don't use any technical tools at all.
You simply cast such tools off as "astrological". How convenient.
Again, given your laziness to provide a statistical argument to the contrary, I would once again suggest that this thread is a complete waste of time.
Good Luck to you.
How can I? As soon as one Fibonacci level doesn't work, you'll put out another one, and then another one. Eventually, one of them will "take." But what real-time value does that provide?
And would those numbers, and all other fractions less than 1.00, represent higher lows or lower highs? Imagine.
Your comment above was quite typical of someone that obviously isn't OPEN to any realistic discussion on fibs.
My post highlighted only 3 fibs . . .
38.2, 50.00, and 61.8%.
I'm sorry that you are unable to comprehend that.
My guess is that you would also have great DIFFICULTY in drawing a simply trend-line accurately, as well.
I'm done here.
Good day.
My post highlighted only 3 fibs . . .
38.2, 50.00, and 61.8%.
I'm sorry that you are unable to comprehend that.
My guess is that you would also have great DIFFICULTY in drawing a simply trend-line accurately, as well.
I'm done here.
Good day.
Then your guess would be wrong, because I only employ very basic TA consisting of nothing other than price. (I followed volume for some time a while back in various forms, but it did nothing for me on balance.)
No, I am not casting Fibs as "astrological." I am merely suggesting that they are as useful (or superfluous). I imagine it's about as useful as wearing your favorite tie to a business meeting that ends favorably. I think you may be attributing a bit more importance to the tie than the underlying reason for the successful meeting.
No, I have never traded on, or visited, a trading floor. Aren't a lot of floor traders having troubling adjusting to "upstairs" trading?
I read Sperandeo's two trading books in the '90s. In them, he shows a fairly objective way of drawing trend lines, so that any two people looking at the same data in the same time frame would essentially draw the same trend line. Here's the thing, though: I don't use trend lines. I find them a little too blunt. Just a personal choice.
Victor is a GREAT teacher, especially when it comes to classic Dow Theory and confirmations, or lack thereof.
He was my first boss out of college.
Hugo Securities, from 1984-1985.
A very generous man.
Saw him on CNBC last week talking about the leverage in the Commodity markets.
Blew me away seeing him after all this time.