[POLL] Are Bullish and Bearish Day Trading patterns Unique OR Similar ?
- Thread starter rajesheck
- Start date
Some day traders think that there is some uniqueness between Bullish and Bearish patterns. Some of them say they are comfortable with bullish, others feel comfortable with bearish.
Lets us debate.
My personal day trading experience says they are same, no difference.
Debating that makes no sense. There are thousands of different ways to trade. Almost every trader has a unique style of trading. So what they are comfortable with or not, is for each system different. Trendfollowers, scalpers, countertrend traders, price action traders,S/R traders...
Your posting(first 2 sentences) confirms this. Differences everywhere.
It is like discussing if you prefer a girl with blond or black hair. For all kinds of colors there will be candidates, but also people who are not interested at all..
You should trade what you are comfortable with, no matter what it is.
There's not an extreme difference not in my experience but markets are naturally bullish bias. So, unless market is extremely bearish, longs will typically be easier and pay more than shorts, speaking particularly regarding equities here. I'll just list some of the reasons why I feel this way and why it may appear to people they are different.
(1) It's hard for big buyers to hide and they can't and don't normally enter a position all at once, they need an average weighted price. This allows for you to pick up on when they are buying.
(2) Ever month new fund money enters the market, 401k's, 403(b's) and etc.
(3) Not many people want stock market to go down. A lot is riding on it going up. So, vast majority have an obvious interest in it going up, hence why equities long typically always easier.
(4) Anytime someone shorts, they will become a buyer sooner or later, so even in bearish times you can get those brutal short covering rallies. Which just adds another layer on making shorting more difficult.
(5) Lot's of people I know that invest or trade part time, hate shorting and will only long(this is anecdotal, but just another minor point.
A smaller, maybe not relevant point directly to this conversation but interesting for people who like to look at Macro economics to trade - Not many people truly understand macro economics(myself included). This is important because even if you have the right thesis, hardly anyone else will see what will or could happen. Therefore people will keep buying right up until the end, when we finally have a reset cycle in the market. So trying to short equities via macro economics is a lot more difficult. Not only do you need right thesis, you need big bank roll and timing.
(1) It's hard for big buyers to hide and they can't and don't normally enter a position all at once, they need an average weighted price. This allows for you to pick up on when they are buying.
(2) Ever month new fund money enters the market, 401k's, 403(b's) and etc.
(3) Not many people want stock market to go down. A lot is riding on it going up. So, vast majority have an obvious interest in it going up, hence why equities long typically always easier.
(4) Anytime someone shorts, they will become a buyer sooner or later, so even in bearish times you can get those brutal short covering rallies. Which just adds another layer on making shorting more difficult.
(5) Lot's of people I know that invest or trade part time, hate shorting and will only long(this is anecdotal, but just another minor point.
A smaller, maybe not relevant point directly to this conversation but interesting for people who like to look at Macro economics to trade - Not many people truly understand macro economics(myself included). This is important because even if you have the right thesis, hardly anyone else will see what will or could happen. Therefore people will keep buying right up until the end, when we finally have a reset cycle in the market. So trying to short equities via macro economics is a lot more difficult. Not only do you need right thesis, you need big bank roll and timing.
I can agree with this, but I mean if your strategy heavily relies on markets being bullish, there's nothing wrong with that and in fact been smart lately and working well. But if we're going by actual signals, like using probability or mathematical calculation to make your trades, in my experience they are very similar
Of course like you said there's tons of ways to make money, this is just my experience and I can't speak for everyone, nor claiming this is 100% fact. But for example I wouldn't include a martingale strategy as relevant to this particular conversation or a strategy that relies heavily on bullish environment.
I am assuming he meant recurring signal or patterns. Also only my personal experience.
It's like saying " Well no, your statement is dumb, I have a buddy who buys a "X" moving average everyday and looks for certain profit". There's nothing wrong with that at all, it can be very valid, but that's relying on market bullish bias(which again nothing wrong with that).
His question isn't regarding different strategies, He's asking if you are using a mathematical reason to go long the markets, in your experience is the short trade also using the same, similar or related math / logic or pattern(At least this is how I took it).
His question isn't regarding different strategies, He's asking if you are using a mathematical reason to go long the markets, in your experience is the short trade also using the same, similar or related math / logic or pattern(At least this is how I took it).
I see only the words "Bullish" and "Bearish".
The difference is not in bull or bear, the difference is in the strenght of the trend. That defines what you should do. Weak trend is quickly in and out, strong trend means stay longtime in the trade before taking profits. Bull or bear is irrelevant.
Well, sometimes I am dumb and don't understand things. But it seems like we're all agreeing here? Or maybe I am the one making contradicting statements by accident. But this is what I am saying the signals(in my experience are very similar) IE bull and bear setups are the same.
That doesn't change the base fact that equity markets are generally bullish bias though. So, a lot of people find longs easier and tend to make more on them(from my experience and what I've seen).
Sure, during bear markets this isn't true, but pretty rare these days.
I find patterns cleaner and faster in a bearish environment but as an intraday trader, I don't wait for technical "trends"but rely on momentum dynamics in PA and oscillator to provide and filter long and short signals. I find it mentally less taxing to simply take the signals and manage the trade than to try and predict the direction of my markets.
True, but only on condition that in both cases the strenght of the trend is indentical. Depending of the strenght of the trend I have a lot of different scenario's. They are all optimized for that particular strenght. The same rules apply for short and long. But always in function of the strenght of the trend.
Ok, yes I totally agree with that. Depending on market pattern or strength however you define it, certain setups are much more efficient to take than others and sometimes best to 100% avoid a long or short in certain scenarios.
100% agree