Polito-Math question

For the math wizzards here:

Next time a US submarine collides with a ship, what are the chances that the ship will belong to Japan?

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-01-09-voa16.cfm

The Japanese must really think we are aiming at them:

"The collision between the USS Newport News and the Japanese vessel Mogamigawa occurred Monday evening south of the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and Oman."
 
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