Poker wisdom for option traders

I've read that some notable options professionals play Bridge.

Essentially, one needs to have metacognition plus high level numeracy in trading rather than assembling a narrative for the trade as most novices do.
 
If you didn't study statistics you'll be unable to understand true meaning of positive expectancy or law of large numbers, because with intuitive approach, our understanding of probabilities are inherently bad. Take for example arcsine law. You may employ some trading strategy which leads to the outcome that you're above breakeven for considerable amount of time. But well it still can be result of random trading and your conclusion that your strategy is good is false.
 
kroxobor said:
If you didn't study statistics you'll be unable to understand true meaning of positive expectancy or law of large numbers, because with intuitive approach, our understanding of probabilities are inherently bad. Take for example arcsine law. You may employ some trading strategy which leads to the outcome that you're above breakeven for considerable amount of time. But well it still can be result of random trading and your conclusion that your strategy is good is false.
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It's called integrating the curve.
 
It's all about math, law of large numbers and sequences of trades. I had another winning day, doing dozens of daytrades as usual.

Mostly I do 200-300 share trades in a sequence, eg at one point I was in 1400 shares winning UVXY during midday run, trailed tight stops .05 near the top and banked a profit.

I was probably 40% wins 60% stops at best, but still won. I'm a former statistician for Ford. It's the math. Percent of winning trades and charts are not very important. I focus on price action and timing. I use fidelity OTO orders exclusively.

Eg I see 16.22 is the market I put buy-stop 300shares 16.28, hard stop 16.0 ... and buy-stop 200shares 16.38 trail stop .08 etc
 
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KCalhoun said:
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I'm a former statistician for Ford. It's the math.
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*chokes* You are a former statistician for Ford? Then please tell us why "Quality has not been Job 1" at Ford for 35 years?

Your vehicles SUCK ASS IN QUALITY!
 
Vehicle quality is a monumental task, there's 5 major interacting systems, powertrain, body&glass, electronics etc.

But I drove my Nissan 300zx to work in Dearborn and um that didn't go over well. Except the ladies loved it. I then bought a Camry. I didn't win popularity contests with management, but at least I got girlfriends lol

There used to be a saying, stands for "fix or repair daily" :p
 
KCalhoun said:
Vehicle quality is a monumental task, there's 5 major interacting systems, powertrain, body&glass, electronics etc.

But I drove my Nissan 300zx to work in Dearborn and um that didn't go over well. Except the ladies loved it. I then bought a Camry. I didn't win popularity contests lol
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Your excuses are not working on me. So you were working at Ford, but drove Jap cars. Why? Because you knew they would last forever. Sure, the 300Z probably rusted out a bit, but it's powertrain was awesome and is prolly still running today. The Camry? It is prolly still running today. Where's your Ford? Oh, whoops, you never bought one while maintaining "Quality is job 1!"

I hate Ford. F them.
 
I never bought a Ford, though it was a great company, excellent management. But quality of Toyota etc is tops.

I bought a Camry 20 years ago and we still drive it, never had Any problems. No way in fk you could get that build quality in any domestic car.
 
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