Poker Question - What are the odds?

Part A calcs should match the max iterations for lottery ( 6 numbers out of 52). I’ve got 20mil or so ….sounds correct , no ?
 
Quote from IV_Trader:

Why you are using times TWO in part B ? The order is irrelevant. There are only 6 combinations of pairs for four “Kings”. Just like there are only 6 Exactas Box in the four horses race.

Because I am using all permutations of three pairs (Part B) divided all permutations of possible three two cards hands (Part A). You have to consider the total number of ways for both of your sets. If I am using 52*51*50*49*48*47 for Part A I have to include all possible ways the pairs can come down for Part B.

You reduced Part A by 6*5*4*3*2*1 which only gives you only the number of 6 card combinations and says nothing about the possible number of unique PAIRS. It is like figuring the number of combinations for a giant 6 card hand. If you want to use combinations instead for both parts, you need to change Part A to reflect this, looking like

Part B: 6*13*6*12*6*11
Part A: (52*51/2)(50*49/2)(48*47/2)

This way is more confusing I think which is why I did it the first way in my response to you. The easiest way to think of it is imagine you only dealt 1 hand, what are the chances of getting a pair?

You can do it both ways, possible permutations of getting any pair?

13*6*2 = 156

Possible permutations of dealing two cards?

52*51 = 2652, so 156/2652 = 1/17

Or using combinations,

13*6 = 78

and

52*51/2 combinations of two card hands because each will be counted twice.

= 1/ 17

I'm doing the same thing but with 3 pairs instead.
 
Quote from nathanos:

Because I am using all permutations of three pairs (Part B) divided all permutations of possible three two cards hands (Part A). You have to consider the total number of ways for both of your sets. If I am using 52*51*50*49*48*47 for Part A I have to include all possible ways the pairs can come down for Part B.

You reduced Part A by 6*5*4*3*2*1 which only gives you only the number of 6 card combinations and says nothing about the possible number of unique PAIRS. It is like figuring the number of combinations for a giant 6 card hand. If you want to use combinations instead for both parts, you need to change Part A to reflect this, looking like


yes , I think you are right. I should drop " divide by 1 thru 6 " from part A calcs
 
ok...had few free minutes...

Odds for everyone to get a pair :

(52*51*50*49*48*47) / (6*2*13)*(6*2*12)*(6*2*11) =

1 in 4943


Flop odds :

(46*45*44) / (4*3*2) =

1 in 3795

N , agree ?
 
Quote from IV_Trader:

ok...had few free minutes...

Odds for everyone to get a pair :

(52*51*50*49*48*47) / (6*2*13)*(6*2*12)*(6*2*11) =

1 in 4943


Flop odds :

(46*45*44) / (4*3*2) =

1 in 3795

N , agree ?

Agree with the first part, I think the second is (46*45*44)/6*4*2 though like I mentioned above and I'll quote below

It needs to be 6/46 for the first number because it doesn't matter which player's pair the first card of the flop matches. There are 6 cards that could be drawn to make someone a three of a kind. After someone makes three of a kind, there are only 4 cards left that will match one of the last two players' pairs. After that, the last player must see one of the two possible cards to make three of a kind.

In my original post I think I made a calculation wrong and (46*45*44)/6*4*2 should equal 1897.5 instead of 3795. But it looks like I did it right in my final answer which should still be 1 in 9.4 million.
 
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