I think you could say that TA is based on tested and proven probability to where card counting might be close to shooting from the hip in trading.
Poker players make the best traders?
- Thread starter viruscore1
- Start date
This has already been debated numerous times and the answer is that traders make good poker players but poker players do not necesarily make good traders.
The reasons why are as follow:
1. Good poker players can be good at reading their opponents and bluffing. You can't do that in trading behind a computer. Not in the same way anyway.
2. Poker players can rely on probabilities with 100% accuracy. In other words the poker playersunderstand he has a 80% chance of winning and the outcome is always certain. With trading the outcome is never certain and even a trade with known win rates is always subject to extreme black swan events so it's harder to always "go all in". Poker players may not ever get used to this uncertainty.
3. There is no hft in poker. No structural edges and commissions to worry about. It really is zero sum.
And more reasons as other have stated.
The reasons why are as follow:
1. Good poker players can be good at reading their opponents and bluffing. You can't do that in trading behind a computer. Not in the same way anyway.
2. Poker players can rely on probabilities with 100% accuracy. In other words the poker playersunderstand he has a 80% chance of winning and the outcome is always certain. With trading the outcome is never certain and even a trade with known win rates is always subject to extreme black swan events so it's harder to always "go all in". Poker players may not ever get used to this uncertainty.
3. There is no hft in poker. No structural edges and commissions to worry about. It really is zero sum.
And more reasons as other have stated.
Lol I think none of you guys talking about poker player have ever play poker seriously in your life. If you understand statistics at all you know poker is not based on luck...
Even with that said poker player doesn’t make a good trader or a bad trader but there are some element in poker that can be used in the trading world...
1. Good poker player choose their opponents. Game selection, seat selection, etc.
2. Know the probabilities of outcomes and make a high probability decision
3. Know when you’re beaten and fold
4. Money management
5. Risk/reward ratio
yes I play poker in stakes high enough to make this assessment.
Even with that said poker player doesn’t make a good trader or a bad trader but there are some element in poker that can be used in the trading world...
1. Good poker player choose their opponents. Game selection, seat selection, etc.
2. Know the probabilities of outcomes and make a high probability decision
3. Know when you’re beaten and fold
4. Money management
5. Risk/reward ratio
yes I play poker in stakes high enough to make this assessment.
Good manipulators are good at reading the trading of others and engineering false break outs, which equals bluffing. Same same.
Both poker players and traders can rely on probabilities. And for either, if it's 80% for this hand/trade, the outcome is only 100%(being plus) on balance over a given period or number.
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Being good at certain games such as poker, chess, backgammon and so on has a positive corelation with being a winning trader. The reasons should be obvious.
However, being a strong games player does not make one a lock to succeed.
A number of firms and successful backers give extra consideration to hiring and training top games players.
Susquehanna has all their trainees learn about poker and play poker. Seperate trivia note: One year they sent a crew of blackjack counters to Vegas (mostly they quickly got barred) as a project.
Ed Thorp and Blair Hull credit some of their trading savvy and success to having started out as blackjack card counters.
*Chess and backgammon champions get extra points as well.
**People who are poor thinkers or who easily fold under pressure get; well, you know...
However, being a strong games player does not make one a lock to succeed.
A number of firms and successful backers give extra consideration to hiring and training top games players.
Susquehanna has all their trainees learn about poker and play poker. Seperate trivia note: One year they sent a crew of blackjack counters to Vegas (mostly they quickly got barred) as a project.
Ed Thorp and Blair Hull credit some of their trading savvy and success to having started out as blackjack card counters.
*Chess and backgammon champions get extra points as well.
**People who are poor thinkers or who easily fold under pressure get; well, you know...
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I see a few people in this thread speaking of poker from a position of ignorance.
The difference between long term winners and losers in poker is NOT bluffing. Bluffing is only one piece of a broader strategy, and bluffing is not a matter of having the proper testicular fortitude. A proper bluffing strategy has a basis in game theory. The goal is to find the optimum bluffing frequency so as not to effectively play your cards face-up.
Tells also play a much more insignificant role than casual observers are led to believe from movies. Case in point: I played online professionally for four years as my sole source of income. There are no physical tells online, but there are betting patterns you can pick up on that when combined with a working knowledge of the odds of certain outcomes can help you narrow an opponent's hand range.
I wouldn't blindly say "poker players are the best traders," but I would say there are certain skills that professional poker players develop that may help them to some degree when making the transition to trading.
Bankroll/risk management would be one.
Another would be learning how to dispassionately analyze your decisions. In both poker and trading, you can be rewarded for making mistakes. You can also be punished for making the right decision. Over the long term, you expect to win more if you consistently make the right decision, but short term variance can always lay waste to the best plans.
In both pursuits, you work with limited information and must make decisions based on the information available at the time.
The difference between long term winners and losers in poker is NOT bluffing. Bluffing is only one piece of a broader strategy, and bluffing is not a matter of having the proper testicular fortitude. A proper bluffing strategy has a basis in game theory. The goal is to find the optimum bluffing frequency so as not to effectively play your cards face-up.
Tells also play a much more insignificant role than casual observers are led to believe from movies. Case in point: I played online professionally for four years as my sole source of income. There are no physical tells online, but there are betting patterns you can pick up on that when combined with a working knowledge of the odds of certain outcomes can help you narrow an opponent's hand range.
I wouldn't blindly say "poker players are the best traders," but I would say there are certain skills that professional poker players develop that may help them to some degree when making the transition to trading.
Bankroll/risk management would be one.
Another would be learning how to dispassionately analyze your decisions. In both poker and trading, you can be rewarded for making mistakes. You can also be punished for making the right decision. Over the long term, you expect to win more if you consistently make the right decision, but short term variance can always lay waste to the best plans.
In both pursuits, you work with limited information and must make decisions based on the information available at the time.
Disagree. In trading you can loose more than you predetermined stop loss. In poker you can never lose more than your current bet.
Probabilities are far more predictable in poker than in trading.
Probabilities in both are used to determine potential success. How much you can win or lose in differently structured items is another subject.
