Poker players make the best traders?

[alexpun]

I was a pro at the hyper turbo sng mid-high stake.
I played like 100,000 games, the effort was not worth it for the $.

For those who think poker is easy. In Pokerstars you can easily have 5 sharks hunting on one fish. It was not in the golden days 10 years ago in which you can follow basic strategy in a book and win big. Edge was (and is) razor thin, you will have 2% roi + about 1.5% in rakeback. (I am sure rakeback is now reduced)

However the stuff I learned is invaluable. Bankroll management, Nash equilibrium, game theory, and most importantly the mental fortitude required when you have strings of bad days.

I was able to suck it up and not throwing stuff around when I lose $4k in a day when my bankroll was like $15k. When you played for 2 years nightmare day like this is bound to happen.

I am now more as a investor than a trader as I think it is just as profitable betting on good companies which earn you money every year. I did put in some good trade like shorting ZB at about 170 and closing it at 150 a few months later.

 

[alexpun]

Guys. stop the madness with this shit, really.

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You and someone else are head-to-head in a no-limit hold 'em game.

Cards are dealt. You have a two of spades, two of hearts.

Blinds are cast.

The flop reveals a 4 and 5 spades, and another 2.

You have 3 of a kind on flop with a possible straight and possible straight flush. What does the other guy have? Maybe two 4s or 5s for a four-bagger, maybe Ace and King spades.

He goes all-in.

What do you do?

You have a possible straight, straight flush or four of a kind. Meanwhile he might have the same but with a higher four-of-a-kind possibility, or higher straight-flush. How can you know?

That is not trading, that is poker which takes skill. READING the PLAYER. The markets are not the bloodlust that is poker. But trading takes skill as well. But the reasons to hold or fold in trading are so far and away from the reasons to do so in poker that I am sad so many people here are so short-sighted that they continue to equivocate the two.

Depends on pre-flop action but most likely this is snap call in headup holdem

 

[ElCubano]

He goes all-in.
What do you do?

.

That’s easy, you use your “phone a friend” option and call ‘Buy2for1’ Aka. Mr. Proffesional for advice.

 

[Hooter]

Those who know how to manage risk and bet wisely. Actually, my style is more like blackjack, except in trading i get to see my opening cards prior to making my bet

 

[lolTRICKDu]

Quick question:

Is there any sort of trade journal / software that can track results in great detail and provide statistics on my results, my positions, etc.?

One of the critical turning points for me in becoming a winning poker player was getting a copy of PokerTracker. I think this was absolutely critical to my success even though I purchased it well before I had a poker bankroll to justify the outlay.

For those not familiar with poker or PokerTracker, it was basically a program that tracked every single hand I played online. It gave me information related to what % of hands I was choosing to play, how much money I made with each hand and in which position at the table, it showed my win rate, total rake paid and all manner of statistics.

PokerTracker served me well in three ways.

First, I was able to use it to identify areas in which I was leaking money. "Oh, I see I've been losing money with pocket jacks when playing from first position - I need to evaluate that and plug that leak." - Things of that nature.

Second, PokerTracker gave me newfound focus. I knew my winrate at all times and could constantly strive to improve it. I new exactly how I was doing at the tables and could not BS myself. It gave me goals and kept me constantly on the hunt to improve.

Third, PokerTracker tracked all known information of my regular opponents. I could use that to identify their mistakes. I.e. - "This guy I often see at the $2/$4 NL tables never bluffs the river." I can't imagine a trading equivalent to this third point, but figured I would throw it out there anyways.

So, is there anything even remotely similar for trading?

If not, who wants to earn a quick million and get that developed? I'll be your first customer.

Or am I looking at this all wrong? I'm not nearly as familiar with trading as I am with poker, so I don't even know what all I don't know.

 

[Overnight]

"This guy I often see at the $2/$4 NL tables never bluffs the river." I can't imagine a trading equivalent to this third point, but figured I would throw it out there anyways...

How the heck can you know that the guy never bluffs on the river? The ONLY way to know that is if you see his hole cards, and you are cheating.

Stick to poker, dude, and stay the hell out of trading. The markets never bluff, ever.

 

[jk90029]

In some sense, the two games are similar.

1) While poker pay rake(time, collection)of roughly $20 per hour (in NJ Atlantic City or LA Commerce) , trading pay commission and tax. Both are zero-game, more specifically equity trading is zero-sum after the index average.

2) Equity trading gives us dividend while poker does not.

3) In long-term sense, trading follows compounded (geometric) winning curve while poker follows "simple" curve.

4) Most poker(Brick and Mortar) is played in ONLY one game with one seat, while trading can be done with multiple table simultaneously. Online poker can be played in multiple seat but not a lot.

Tell me if you have more similarity and difference.

PS) Professional poker players spend roughly 1000 hour or 2000 hour, which is 20K or 40K.
If a traders pay 40K to comm+tax per year, then he might be called as professional trader, isn't it?

 

[MattZ]

*sighs*

Poker is not gambling.

It is a game of skill when it involves human interaction face-to-face, which make it all random odds with judgement.

Poker against a deck is all about fixed odds.

Combine the two (playing against someone with fixed odds) and you have a game of skill.

Playing the lottery is pure gambling, against fixed odds.

Playing a roulette wheel is pure gambling, playing against random odds (the fall of the ball).

Trading is NOT GAMBLING!

Trading is a skill based on neither of these (fixed or random odds), but about judgement. One does not see a human on the other side of the trade, just the market. The trader is making his/her judgement based on the patterns of the previous traders based on previous market behavior, and the likelihood of the market doing a thing or changing. You have no human interaction face-to-face, period. But you also do not have odds, fixed or random.

So you have all of the fun of no odds poker with all the fun of no human interaction. I do not think I am making any sense. My bad.

Nice! Good explanation. However, consecutive losses in the marketplace or against a good player are very similar. This is where odds and skills are thrown out and replaced with hope...essentially where players "lose it".

 

[lolTRICKDu]

How the heck can you know that the guy never bluffs on the river? The ONLY way to know that is if you see his hole cards, and you are cheating.

Stick to poker, dude, and stay the hell out of trading. The markets never bluff, ever.

You do realize you can see their cards after the showdown, right? And if you play thousands of hands with another regular while running poker tracker (or you just take diligent notes), you can eventually get a pretty good idea of how often someone bluffs the river. If you never witness a guy getting caught bluffing after a large enough sample size, you can reasonably presume he rarely bluffs and then he might as well be playing his cards face up. At least until proven otherwise. No cheating necessary.

It’s not about calling the bluff because of a gut feeling. It’s about estimating percentages and adjusting your decisions accordingly in order to make as many +ev decisions as possible.

If the deepest your thought process could go was to read the word “bluff” and then go screaming “market doesn’t bluff!!”... well, let’s just say you’re completely missing the point here.

Anyways, does anyone here have any recommendations regarding trading journal software of some sort? Not looking for a handout here, just wondering if there’s something on the market for that kind of thing.

I stumbled across Edgewonk, but have heard very mixed reviews regarding the software and the creators.

 

[themickey]

You do realize you can see their cards after the showdown, right? And if you play thousands of hands with another regular while running poker tracker (or you just take diligent notes), you can eventually get a pretty good idea of how often someone bluffs the river. If you never witness a guy getting caught bluffing after a large enough sample size, you can reasonably presume he rarely bluffs and then he might as well be playing his cards face up. At least until proven otherwise. No cheating necessary.

It’s not about calling the bluff because of a gut feeling. It’s about estimating percentages and adjusting your decisions accordingly in order to make as many +ev decisions as possible.

If the deepest your thought process could go was to read the word “bluff” and then go screaming “market doesn’t bluff!!”... well, let’s just say you’re completely missing the point here.

Anyways, does anyone here have any recommendations regarding trading journal software of some sort? Not looking for a handout here, just wondering if there’s something on the market for that kind of thing.

I stumbled across Edgewonk, but have heard very mixed reviews regarding the software and the creators.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/resources/authors/baron.2/