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poker player tries his hand at futures trading
- Thread starter fletch2
- Start date
Quote from Raystonn:
Glad to see my assessment was correct. Human emotional reactions are so predictable.
-Raystonn
As are your arrogant, snide little remarks - and it all started over something you obviously don't comprehend.
The shallow ones, like you? They never actually contribute, they just sit there making little self-gratifying potshots but never offer any substantive debate.
E-mail and the Web - "... empowering socially deficient people everywhere."
Quick update:
Had a rough go of it recently. I had a brutal 7 day losing streak, matching the worst run from a 3 year backtest. Things have turned up from there, and I stand at $1180 profit after 27 trades.
My backtest EV is $69 per trade per contract (accounting for commission and slippage), so in a perfect world, I'd be up $1863 (as I am trading one contract until I make at least $10k).
By Monte Carlo I can say the following about where I should be after 50 trades based on perfect system performance vs. where I should be based on a zero EV system with the same variance:
breakeven: 50%, 86%
+$1000: 36%, 78%
+$2000: 26%, 69%
+$3000: 18%, 58%
+$4000: 11%, 46%
+$5000: 7%, 35%
i.e., if my system is garbage with no edge, I would be up $2k or better 26% of the time after 50 trades. If my system were to perform perfectly, I would be up $2k or more 69% of the time.
It would take a full 450 trades (about two years) before any returns which were consistent (to 90% probability) with the perfect system performance would also *not* be consistent with the zero EV returns. Sobering.
At the latest I'll check back after 50 trades are in.
Fletch
Had a rough go of it recently. I had a brutal 7 day losing streak, matching the worst run from a 3 year backtest. Things have turned up from there, and I stand at $1180 profit after 27 trades.
My backtest EV is $69 per trade per contract (accounting for commission and slippage), so in a perfect world, I'd be up $1863 (as I am trading one contract until I make at least $10k).
By Monte Carlo I can say the following about where I should be after 50 trades based on perfect system performance vs. where I should be based on a zero EV system with the same variance:
breakeven: 50%, 86%
+$1000: 36%, 78%
+$2000: 26%, 69%
+$3000: 18%, 58%
+$4000: 11%, 46%
+$5000: 7%, 35%
i.e., if my system is garbage with no edge, I would be up $2k or better 26% of the time after 50 trades. If my system were to perform perfectly, I would be up $2k or more 69% of the time.
It would take a full 450 trades (about two years) before any returns which were consistent (to 90% probability) with the perfect system performance would also *not* be consistent with the zero EV returns. Sobering.
At the latest I'll check back after 50 trades are in.
Fletch