Poker player moving to trade/advise please

[sle]

Poker nowadays is way more than that. Poker players are now calculating GTO(game theory optimal) which should be an unexploitable game and then you need study the results to find patterns and create ranges pre and post flop.

Do you mind elaborating on the process a little?

 

[Bye aces]

In Poker, the parameters and rules of the game have not changed, so your strategy would be the same. There is no variable, aside from the size of the pot maybe.

in certain games where calculation the perfect game is doable strategy tend not to change anymore.
In other games it all depends in what general population is doing to adjust your strategy.
players who used to crush just 2 years ago might suck by now.

 

[Bye aces]

Do you mind elaborating on the process a little?

GTO is the perfect game where no one can ever exploit you. It means if both players play that perfect strategy(which is not humanly possible) they will end with no edge at all between them.
There are some solver on the market to calculate those results and then you need to study the pattern of each situation and apply on your game.
for instance in board like K42 will have a 65% freq cbet where will bet 90% of your top pairs. So you learn that even a top pair has some 10% of check. So in game we use a randomizer to decide our play.
Then you apply this strategy for similar boards like Q73 or J82

 

[Bye aces]

As you say.



How does that work for you in a situation like this?

View attachment 199840

How would your poker mind have calculated the odds of that down suddenly jumping up for 20 points on the NQ in the next 5 minutes, from that point? Remember, you had no time to think about it, you had no chance to calculate your odds...

What the frak does it have to do with professionalism? Math? Determination? My God man, you really never have traded, have you?

I would not use my poker mind for that. From the little i read about i would say this is a double bottom pattern but that would mean a change in trend and then it would go down but not up. So i have no idea. I need to study a lot get anywhere but im willing to do so

 

[Bye aces]

Overnight, professional poker and professional trading is very similar. We are not talking about the similarity between an @ home forex "trader" and a degenerate gambler. The tools are different BUT the bad beats, the big wins, the critical thinking, math, determination, professionalism, bankroll management, long hours, constant strategy development etc... are all the same.

Edit** take some time to read a 2 +2 forum. You will see the similarities between this site and theirs.

I could not agree more. I can say for poker is all true even about the forum

 

[digitalnomad]

It's not really true, though. Many of the top notch investing/trading people are card players. Both poker (lowbrow, so it's mostly for equity traders) and bridge (highbrow, so you see fixed income and other exalted types there) are wildly popular.

I guess it boils down to what type of trading is being done. I can see how a discretionary trader might benefit from poker experience, but see very little benefit for the fully quantitative/automated trader.

I believe sports betting/handicapping might have more overlap into trading. I also firmly believe that profitable traders are much smarter, and it’s more likely a trader will succeed at poker, than the other way around.

 

[dennisa]

A trade is similar to a poker buyin. Pokerplayers only play a percentage of their bankroll because no matter when you go all in very time they are 100% for a double up. A disciplined trader must keep their individual trade to a percentage of their account. While the poker player can use a higher kelly criterion for bankroll management as they may perceive a large advantage in an individual game, so a trader must calculate theirs to prevent risk of ruin.

Psychological dry runs of poker are very similar to dry runs of trading. It is easy to want to chase a loosing day, and if OP is a seasoned poker professional, and has his tilt under control then that psychological methodology should translate into not making bad decisions when under pressure to turn a negative day into something worse.

 

[sle]

GTO is the perfect game where no one can ever exploit you. It means if both players play that perfect strategy(which is not humanly possible) they will end with no edge at all between them.

Ok, so you are assuming some path approaching a Nash equilibrium and trying to solve for it? I am not great specialist but I'd think it should be hard to do for a card game given the combinatorial explosion, no?

 

[Bye aces]

There is a similarity in quickly sizing up probabilities when it comes to determining whether to enter a trade and where/when to exit.

To get the right trading probabilities, you have to have a trading model based on pattern recognition or statistical analysis, which can take several years to develop - many fail at this.

Another similarity is the "tell" of the market. Like poker players- the market has tells (patterns) that will indicate what it's going to do. Like the best poker players, the tell is not readily noticeable, and can only be gleaned by careful long term observation and taking notes of relationships you "think" you see. This is directly related to pattern recognition and can take many years to develop, with many failing to do so.

Here is how it is different:

1) You can never "bluff" the market. Your trading and financial life will hinge on how quickly you can determine the trading odds have turned bad and exit with a small vs large loss.

2) You will never have an unbeatable hand no matter how good the probabilities look. Going "all-in" is a death-wish.

You are NOT playing against the market as another player but rather observing the actions of the biggest players (Bulls/Bears) in the market and determining which side will dominate.

It is easier for a good trader to move to poker than for a good poker player to move to trading as the market is much more complex. Also, in poker, you can play local games and move up as you improve. Trading puts you in the top professional ring right from the start.

You should spend time on a trading sim for a few months to start and get a feel of the market and don't take any courses or read any books- develop your own independent trading cues/instincts before looking at advice/info from others. There is much more bad info out there than good and listening to bad advice can set you back a long time and poison your understanding.

thanks. I liked the way you put that

 

[Bye aces]

Ok, so you are assuming some path approaching a Nash equilibrium and trying to solve for it? I am not great specialist but I'd think it should be hard to do for a card game given the combinatorial explosion, no?

Nash we used for push fold equilibrium 4-5 years ago. its an explosion of combinations. To solve you need to make a lot of approximation and its been calculated properly only 2 and 3 tabling. No home pc are enough to do for full ring table. But some people are calculation just some position VS another on full ring ranges
For 1 board it might take 48h to calculate